Five Games in November
by Buzz Buzzinger

Chapter One: Advance Scouting

More often than not, a single game is won or lost by the result of a seemingly random play: a missed bunt, an out-of-character pitching performance, a clutch hit by an unlikely player, or a botched ground ball or errant throw by a normally steady fielder.  But every once in a while, a game is decided by a key managerial decision.  And the prospect of making the wrong decision that costs his team a key win in a key series is what keeps Mike Glander up at night.

In the old days, during the dawn of the league's existence, Glander and his coaching staff used to meet prior to each and every series and go over the scouting reports for each opponent as thoroughly as possible, in order to avoid any surprises, anticipate key decisions and gain an edge over the opposition.  More recently, however, this exercise is reserved only for the big, must-win series.  And the 2005 World Series certainly qualifies as one of those series.

It is 9:00am in the Salem clubhouse on Wednesday, November 16th.  The ELCS has just concluded, and Game One of the World Series is only three days away.  Glander, his coaching staff and a team of scouts and analysts, gather around a table in the center of the Salem clubhouse.  The first item on the agenda is scouting the Cowtippers themselves.

"It is important to know your own team inside and out," explains Glander, "before even looking at the opponent's team.  At this point in the season, I've managed these guys for 171 games, but you never know what you might find if you dig deep enough.  And it's these little discoveries that could make all the difference."

A white board is set up on the perimeter of the room, and the split stats for every hitter and pitcher on the roster are listed for all to see.  For the most part, these numbers represent how the players performed during the past BDBL season -- not, as some managers prefer -- during the prior MLB season.  Glander explains that this is done because it gives him a better, more accurate picture of how the player performed in the BDBL environment, playing in his BDBL team's home ballpark, surrounded by his BDBL team's supporting players, and used in the way he was used during the past BDBL season.  How the player performed in his MLB environment is irrelevant, Glander explains.  And unless the BDBL sample is too small to be of significance, the player's BDBL performance takes precedence.

The first discovery, which was uncovered prior to the League Championship Series, is that #3 starter Greg Maddux performed better at home than on the road.  Maddux's opposing batting average and OBP were roughly equal both home and away, but his opponents slugging percentage was just .396 at home, and .446 on the road.  This, of course, is a function of Salem's ballpark factors, where the home run factor for left-handed batters is just 87 (with 100 being the league average.)

Because of this discrepancy in home/road splits, Salem chose to give Maddux the ball in Game Two of the LCS.  The result was Maddux's best start of the season: 9 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K on just 78 pitches.  With Allentown featuring a lineup full of left-handed home run hitters, it was immediately decided that Maddux would get the start in Game Two at home.  This would also give Maddux another start at home, in Game Six, if the series went that long.

With that decided, the next big decision was who would get the ball in Game Four, with the choice between lefty Wilson Alvarez or righty Steve Trachsel.  Alvarez is the better pitcher in nearly every way; however, he has major problems facing left-handed batters.  And Allentown, unlike most teams in the league, has several left-handed batters who are proficient against lefty pitchers.  Trachsel, on the other hand, had been a nightmare all season, and was Salem's most unreliable starter.  Glander reluctantly gave Trachsel the ball in Game Four of the Division Series, with predictably awful results.  It made little sense trusting him to pitch in the biggest series of the year.

At this point, one of the analysts spoke up and announced that he had run a simulation, throwing both Trachsel and Alvarez in eight simulated exhibition games against Allentown's lineup in Allentown's home ballpark.  In those eight games, Trachsel averaged 11.4 hits allowed per nine innings, 7.8 runs allowed, 6.0 walks allowed, 1.1 home runs allowed and 4.8 strikeouts.  In eight simulated starts, Alvarez allowed just 8.3 hits, 5.2 runs, 2.3 walks and 1.4 home runs per nine, with an average of 9.4 strikeouts.  The decision was crystal clear: Alvarez would get the starting nod, despite the poor match-ups against the Allentown lineup.

Next up:
Chapter Two: Stage Two