Prologue | Chapter 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12

Chapter Four: The First Domino Tumbles

“The worst part about the trading process is the waiting,” Glander mutters while checking his messages for what seems like the hundredth time this morning. In Glander’s perfect world, all trading would be done either face-to-face, on the phone or in an internet chat room.

“That way,” says Glander, “you get instant feedback on your trade offers and no time is wasted, standing around wondering which way the other guy is leaning.”

In today’s BDBL, a trade offer is made, and it might be a day, two days, a week or even longer before feedback is received. During that time, the mind races with possibilities, other avenues are explored, and it becomes nearly impossible to keep all of the offers and counter-offers straight while planning for every conceivable permutation of outcomes.

While simultaneously negotiating with Kaminski, Doyle, Patterson and Sylvester, Glander has been waiting anxiously to hear from Great Lakes GM Scott Romonosky. In a trade offer born of pure genius, Glander had concocted a way for Romonosky to unload his $10 million catcher, Mike Piazza. Piazza is coming off a disappointing, injury-plagued MLB season in which he has compiled just 234 at-bats while hitting far worse than his usual all-star standards. To make matters worse for Great Lakes, the new playoff limitations imposed by the league in 2002 mean that Piazza will be eligible for only ten plate appearances in the 2004 playoffs. The Cowtippers are so desperate for a bat – any bat – behind the plate, however, they are willing to take Piazza’s $10 million salary in exchange for $5.4 million in penalties.

Great Lakes has the option of releasing Piazza for $5 million, and the conventional wisdom is that they will do just that. So, in order to provide an incentive to sacrifice that $400,000 difference, Glander has provided a list of farm players he is willing to trade in order to make this transaction. Among them are Alberto Callaspo, the leading hitter in the Midwest League and a master of plate discipline, Justin Orenduff, one of the top college pitchers in the country and a star of the Team USA pitching staff, Joel Zumaya, a youngster that averaged over 12.5 strikeouts per nine in his first professional season, and Manny Parra, a big lefty who posted tremendous ratios in his first full season as a pro.

When Romonosky finally responds to this offer, once again it isn’t the response Glander had imagined. Romonosky doesn’t like any of the farm players Glander has listed, and instead requests either Kazuo Matsui or Seung-Yeop Lee. In the eyes of Salem scouts, both players are worth far more than $400,000. Matsui will soon join Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Tejada as one of the elite shortstops in baseball, and Lee is a safe bet to post Hideki Matsui-like numbers in 2004, should he sign with a Major League team.

The precedent for assigning dollar values to farm prospects had already been set back in 2003, when Glander virtually pioneered the concept of “selling” prospects. That year, in an effort to clear salary cap space, Glander effectively sold his top pitching prospect, Aaron Heilman, to the Litchfield Lightning for $2.9 million in penalties. The Lightning were already planning to take an enormous amount of penalties, had no dream of competing that season, and were in desperate need of top farm talent, so the deal made perfect sense for both sides. In a similar trade, Salem unloaded another $2.5 million in penalties by trading Tim Hummel to the Gillette Swamp Rats. By doing so, the market had been set. If Heilman was worth $2.9 million, and Hummel was worth $2.5 million, surely Matsui and Lee are worth more than $400,000.

Just when it seems as if Glander’s statement on the “Mitch and the Mad Cow” radio show would prove to be prophetic, a breakthrough occurs on November 13th: Marlboro GM Kaminski finally accepts Glander’s offer of Bagwell for Guillen and Hudson. At long last, Salem’s first trade of the 2004 season has been consummated.

The Bagwell trade causes a ripple effect throughout the Salem roster. Teixeira now becomes the Salem first baseman against left-handed batters, and leaves the Cowtippers in need of a platoon first baseman against righties. Because Teixeira had been penciled in for right field, Salem is also now in need of a full-time right fielder.

On the plus side, Salem now has an offensive strength at second base, with the platoon of Ray Durham (969 OPS vs. LH) and Hudson (805 OPS vs. RH), and Glander now has a few million more to work with on Draft Day. The question is: how many million?

At $5 million, Carlos Guillen is a bit expensive for a hitter with 388 total at-bats and a sub-700 OPS against lefties. But his 776 OPS against righties is tenth-best among all shortstops in baseball, and the top nine in that category are all either untouchable or far too expensive. It would cost $2.5 million just to cut Guillen, so the question is whether or not that $2.5 million can be better spent elsewhere. It all boils down to Guillen’s glove, and the range rating Diamond Mind assigns to him. The scouts in the Salem front office predict Guillen will be rated no better than “Fr”, with an error rating that will likely cause several aneurysms in the dugout.

“I’d feel comfortable going into the draft with what we’ve got,” says Glander, leaning back in his leather recliner, sipping a Sam Adams Winter Ale, “but I’d still like to tweak a few things here and there. I think we can put ourselves in an even better position.”

The gaping hole behind the plate is still a big issue for the Cowtippers. The only free agent catcher on the market is Mike Lieberthal, who is coming off a terrible season defensively. There are no other catchers on the free agent market – full-time or platoon – that appeal to the Salem scouts, and few options remaining on the trade market. But the trade market is an avenue the Cowtippers must pursue.

Glander contacts Wapakoneta about catcher Bengie Molina, but once again, Bobby Sylvester states that he hasn’t given much thought to trading yet. The Villanova Mustangs are contacted regarding the availability of Jason Phillips, but Villanova GM Tony Chamra is interested only in Rich Harden. Great Lakes Sphinx GM Scott Romonosky is sticking to his demand of Kazuo Matsui or Seung-Yeop Lee in exchange for Piazza. And Los Altos GM Jeff Paulson has no interest in trading Ramon Hernandez. The situation becomes so dire that Glander entertains the idea of strapping on the pads himself.

“I couldn’t hit any worse against righties than Ben Davis or Tom Wilson,” Glander grumbles.

One catcher the Cowtippers haven’t bothered to pursue is Jorge Posada. As he is the best overall catcher in baseball, Salem has assumed that Posada will not be moved at any price. Yet to the shock of the entire front office, Posada’s name has suddenly appeared in the “Selling” section of the BDBL forum. The immediate reaction among the front office staff is skepticism. Posada’s owner, Kaminski, is legendary for his bait-and-switch tactics.

“Sharky will often post a really provocative name on the board, just to get people to enter into negotiations with him,” explains Glander. “Next thing you know, that player is off the table and you’re talking about a few totally different players. Once you climb into that shark cage, there’s no escape.”

Of course, the Hammerheads have also traded some pretty big names over the years that many thought were untouchable. If Posada is traded, and the Cowtippers haven’t at least attempted to negotiate for him, Glander won’t be able to live with himself. So, reluctantly, Glander contacts Kaminski once again, asking what he is looking for in return.

As Kaminski waffles over that question, Glander works to fill in the other missing pieces of the Salem puzzle. Filling the void left at first base, Glander pulls the trigger on his second trade of the off-season, acquiring J.T. Snow from the newly-named Sylmar Padawans in exchange for Erasmo Ramirez and Scott Spiezio. It is a quick-and-easy negotiation, in stark contrast to any other negotiation of the winter to this point.

Snow posted decent numbers against righties (.284/.387/.450) in the big leagues, though in a limited number of at-bats. His biggest asset is his $100,000 salary, which is $1.9 million less than the amount Salem has budgeted for a platoon first baseman. That gives the Cowtippers more money to spread around elsewhere.

On the shortstop front, Glander continues to look for a more attractive alternative to Carlos Guillen. He once again contacts the Manchester Irish Rebels about Melvin Mora, offering another package of players that includes the newly-acquired Orlando Hudson. The Silicon Valley CyberSox are contacted about the availability of Keith Ginter, who played just one game at shortstop the previous MLB season, but may be skilled enough to play there on a regular basis. In exchange for Ginter, CyberSox GM Greg Newgard wants Hudson. Glander counters by asking Newgard to throw in pitcher John Patterson, who is coming off several injury-plagued seasons, and whose option has expired. Newgard puts the trade on the back burner, pending the outcomes of his other trade negotiations.

After weeks of exhaustive, frustrating negotiations with Manchester GM Doyle, the two GM’s finally shake hands on a deal on the evening of November 15th. Glander doesn’t get the shortstop he has been targeting all along – Mora – but he does add Jolbert Cabrera. Cabrera’s upside is that he isn’t a complete embarrassment at the plate. His downsides are numerous: he doesn’t get on base often enough, he is merely adequate against right-handers, he is a below-average shortstop defensively, and he comes with a $2.5 million contract. But the way things are looking on the open market, Cabrera may be, sadly, the best option available. Adding Cabrera means that Salem can now comfortably release Guillen and save another $2.5 million.

In addition to Cabrera, the Cowtippers also manage to upgrade their pitching staff. Despite all of the red flags and reservations Glander has about Kerry Wood, he recognizes that Wood is still among the best young pitchers in the game. Having Wood and Zito at the top of the Salem pitching rotation for the next three seasons is a scenario that is simply too delicious to pass up. Wood comes at the expense of both Roger Clemens and $4.5 million in salary. While there is no doubt that Wood will not perform $4.5 million better than Clemens in 2004, having the rights to Wood through the 2006 season is worth the extra expense.

Next up:
Chapter Five: The Hunt for Brandon Webb