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CHAPTER SIX
NEWSLETTER To: Salem Cowtippers fans When we took the field for Opening Day on January 26th, if you had told me we'd be heading into the final chapter of this season with a sub-.500 record and trailing the New Milford Blazers by double digits, I would have bet my house, my car, every dime in my portfolio, my dignity and everything else I own that it would never happen. Especially if you had told me that we would upgrade our lineup at catcher, third base and the outfield. Yet, almost unbelievably, that's where we stand as I write. In Chapter Five, we went 15-13 despite owning the second-best runs differential in the Ozzie League. We hit .282/.366/.457 as a team, led by an amazing chapter by Matt Kemp (.429/.472/.653), and solid performances by Mark Teixeira (.330/.434/.523), Josh Willingham (.322/.430/.524), Kurt Suzuki (.320/.434/.420) and Mike Cameron (.293/.388/.448.) But it wasn't all good news offensively, as Fred Lewis continued his inexplicable season-long slump, hitting just .184 on the chapter. His overall numbers aren't in the same universe as his MLB numbers from a year ago: Lewis, MLB: .282/.351/.440 We ranked second to only the mighty Los Altos Undertakers in runs scored (159) in Chapter Five, and yet we managed a record of only 15-13. The reason is quite obvious: our pitching was atrocious. We compiled a 4.61 ERA for the chapter, and allowed 281 hits and 41 homers in 256 innings. Despite the fact that we lead the Ozzie League in strikeouts and rank third in the OL is fewest number of walks, our team ERA stands at 4.68 -- 9th best in the league. How can a pitching staff that controls the strikezone so well allow so many hits and runs? That is a question I've been asking myself all season long. As awful as our performance has been this season, I'm afraid to say it will be much worse in Chapter Six. In an effort to keep pace and put a winning team on the field, I deliberately maxed out the usages for several players over the first five chapters. (Yes, believe it or not, the team that has posted a 65-67 record this season is the best team I could have possibly fielded.) In Chapter Six, we will be handing the ball to Aaron Harang (8.42 ERA) six times, Luke Hochevar (6.52) three times, Boof Bonser (5.96) three times and free agent scrapheap acquisition Shawn Estes (4.74 MLB ERA) four times. Those are 16 games that are all but unwinnable. And because of usage issues, our bullpen has been decimated, and we'll be without the services of our best reliever, Brian Tallet. So even if one of those pitchers miraculously manages to pitch five or six quality innings, there will be no one to take over and close out a possible win. Although we've played 27-25 baseball since the all-star break, and own the second-best runs differential in the OL during that time, a penalty for finishing this season with a sub-.500 record is a near-certainty. My only goal is to continue giving my best effort and win as many games as possible to avoid an even larger penalty (which will stick with us every year throughout eternity.) With both the present and near future looking so bleak, let's talk about 2010: CATCHER: We won't get much help from Kenji Johjima next season, either, as his OBP (.295) is even lower than Suzuki's. He is semi-useful (.257/.309/.443) against right-handers, but not nearly useful enough. The only thing that gives me a slight ray of hope is the fact that we're not alone. Unless your catcher's name is Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Jorge Posada, A.J. Pierzynski, Yadier Molina, Miguel Montero or Mike Napoli, you've got a catching problem, too. As awful as Suzuki is, he's ranked as the 12th-best catcher in baseball by Baseball Prospectus -- which makes him league-average in the BDBL. I can deal with league-average. FIRST BASE: SECOND BASE: THIRD BASE: SHORTSTOP: OUTFIELD: STARTING PITCHING: Felix Hernandez: 207+ IP, 175 H, 14 HR, 63
BB, 193 K, 2.52 ERA, 631/581 splits The front three look pretty good. But then again, I thought our front three (Beckett, Hernandez and Justin Duchscherer) looked pretty good heading into this season. So who knows what will happen next year? If Hernandez posted an ERA twice as high as MLB this year, does this mean he'll post a 5.00 ERA next year? If Beckett served up over 30 homers in the BDBL this year after allowing only 18 in MLB, does this mean he'll allow 50 homers for us next year? There is simply no telling what this game will decide to do. BULLPEN: Daniel Bard: 43+ IP, 34 H, 4 HR, 19 BB, 59
K, 3.30 ERA, 788/541 splits Although we could probably head into the season with this bullpen, it could definitely use a few tweaks before Opening Day. All in all, I think there is cause for some optimism about the 2010 season. I definitely have my work cut out for me this winter. The good news is that I'll have plenty of time to work on my master plan, given that I'll have the entire month of November off. Mike Glander |
