Comment on Letter to Oak Ridger

A recent Letter to the Editor of the Oak Ridger, stated that a nuclear criticality had occurred in Gabon, Africa in a uranium ore bed. This is correct but the letter does not explain why it will not happen again. Two billion years ago when the Oklo criticality occurred, the concentration of U-235 was about 3.0% making moderation by ordinary water possible. Now due to radioactive decay, the U-235 % is about 0.7% and moderation by ordinary water is not effective. Therefore, the probability of another natural reactor is vanishing small. Also, U-235 is diluted with U-238 before disposal precluding criticality in a waste disposal site.

For more information, see the criticality pages in: http://home.comcast.net/~brooks50/

Bladder Cancer at K-25 - News-Sentinel 11/24/97 - Frank Munger

Frank Munger reported that a continuing study by Dr. Donna Cragle had not confirmed the original concerns for a high rate of bladder cancer in a selected group of workers who constructed the gaseous diffusion centrifuges. The original risk ratio (the incidence in the study group over the normal incidence) was 6/2 or 3.0. This sounds serious but what the article did not say was that this risk ratio is modest and seldom significant with sample numbers as small as this study included. By comparison, the risk ratio for lung cancer from smoking with much larger sample sizes is about 17. Single study, risk ratios under 2.0 are seldom significant, from 2.0 to 4.0 are suspect, and above 4.0 require confirmation. Further, any statement of a statistical correlation should be accompanied by a statement of its probable significance. Also, if a study has not been corrected for confounding factors, i.e., other causes of the same disease, such as smoking, the correlation and conclusions remain questionable. It should also be pointed out that causality can not be proven by correlation alone. It was once said; "The crowing of the cock does not cause the rising of the sun."

A second problem with the article is the phrase "workers at risk". To the lay reader this may imply the workers are subject to a known, proven risk, But in technical parlance, it also means "subject to the exposure" to a substance under investigation. The lay public and the press should be careful not to read more into a technical study than was intended.

The Smiling Fish Cartoon

The News-Sentinel (11/24/97) has a cartoon of a smiling fish- happy to be caught and out of the Clinch River. Since for PCBs, the contaminant of concern, Fort Loudon (1.54 ppm) is more contaminated than the Clinch River (1.48 ppm), the fish had probably left the Tennessee River for the Clinch River and was still smiling from that improvement. Actually, these differences are not significantly different but illustrate that one should look at all the data before drawing conclusions. ( Data from TVA for catfish).

Comment on EPA's Version of the History of LEFPC

Someone once said, "History is a lie agreed upon." The EPA Web Page on LEFPC falls into that brand of history. It greatly depreciates the role played by the public and replaces it with a progressive, cooperative attitude on the part of EPA and TDEC that simply did not exist. Tony Able and Elmer Akin of EPA repeatedly said they must go along in the risk assessment phase with the "regulations" regardless of the ultra-conservative nature of the assumptions. They did say they could accept the recommendations from the public in the risk management phase. During this period, Doug McCoy of TDEC said TDEC was bound by the EPA guidelines. When this was understood, the public went ahead and mustered up the necessary expression to change the remediation level from its original 50 ppm to 400 ppm. If there are doubts of this, there are public copies of the correspondence wherein DOE requested EPA for a change from 50 ppm to 180 ppm and copies of the EPA letter refusing it. The history of the changes is documented in the summaries of the CWG meetings. For more detailed information see A CERCLA Critique (The Saga of LEFPC) and DOE/ORO, the Environment and Public Participation at the same web site.

None of the above would be significant if it were not for the great difficulty that DOE has had in bringing about meaningful public participation which can affect the process. Not recognizing the public contribution is to risk returning tot the prior state where EPA could force DOE to accept their regulations with the errors on the cost model and the resulting wasteful remediation. As Disraeli (I believe) said about history: "Those who do not understand it are condemned to repeat its mistakes."

The GIP's DRAFT Executive Summary

A DRAFT of the Executive Summary of the Governor' Independent Panel's report is now available. In the opinion of this editor, it presents a fair and accurate view of the problem of the K-25 worker (and nearby residents) illnesses. It considers both the knowns and the unknowns in proper balance. The recommendations for future attention to the problem are reasonable - that the DOE pursue a solution to the causes by attention to the ill-persons and to provide assistance to the workers if medically possible.

In one news article, Donzettia Hill is quoted as saying the report covers what the public already knew. This is true - but now it has been said by a neutral body that has the force of the Governor's Office. This should give credence to the workers claims, to the urgency of their needs and the reasonableness of the public's suggestions of a more clinically oriented investigation of the illnesses. The recent involvement of the Center for Disease Control with their internationally known talents gives hope for real progress toward a solution. Much, if not all, of what the Panel recommend should be implemented.

In addition, the panel's findings confirm the faith of many of the resident's in the safety of their community and specifically finds that the claims of the Nashville Tennessean are simply wrong. Its Editor owes Oak Ridge an apology and repeated stories that will correct the damage he has done to our image.

The Panel is to be congratulated for a job well done as well as are the Oak Ridgers who made many contributions.