Montrose Toast

Since 2005, it has been the Iraqi Army’s stated policy to keep the Soviet-designed tanks in one division, the 9th Division based at Taji.  New, non-Soviet design tanks would go to upgrade other divisions.  That policy has colored all analysis and projections of where the new M1A1 tanks and M1126 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers (APC) were likely to go first.  That policy has changed according to an 18 August 2009 comment by Jack Winters:

"On another topic about the M1 and where they're going to go, that question was asked by reporters to the defense minister; and he said they're going to the Ninth Div, and the T72's are going to go to other units in the army. So the idea they are going to go to Baghdad div is not in the mind set of the MOD."

This new detail significantly changes the probable distribution of Iraqi armor over the next 18 months and makes previous predictions obsolete.  [The devil is in the details.  Even small details can change everything]

This could also explain some of the confusing reporting recently concerning the 52nd Brigade’s (14th IA Division) Combined Arms Live Fire Exercise (CALFEX) in Basrah.

The question becomes, where is the armor currently in 9th Division and the not yet delivered two battalions of T72s going? To make such a prediction, there are several additional details that need to be considered: 

1.  The comment said "units".  Plural.  This means the Iraqi Minister of Defense is talking spreading the armor out as the 9th Division upgrades to M1A1s and Strykers. Probably in brigade strength since the support battalions are at that level but, to several different divisions. 

2.  The last 9010 Quarterly Report to Congress said that the Iraqi Army is looking at converting “4th Battalions” to support units.  E.G. Use the two battalions of M113 APCs in 9th Division for mortar carriers and mechanized combat service support (CSS).  That removes those two battalions from the equation as mechanized reconnaissance battalions.  The new brigades would need brigade support battalions, so new BSBs would be formed utilizing the redistributed armor.  Plus the current and future brigades are adding 120mm mortars to their strength.  Some of those M113 APCs will probably be converted to mortar carriers. 

3.  52nd Brigade (14th Division) was called a "Navy Brigade" in the press report on the CALFEX in Basrah.   Also, the 14th Division already has a T55/BMP1-equipped tank battalion attached from 9th Division.  That battalion is from the same brigade reported as having tank crews training on M1A1s. 

4.  The Presidentials were always described as planned to be a mix of armor, motorized, and light infantry.  So far, the three brigades are only light infantry.  Two of the brigades are missing battalions. 

5.  Not including the M1A1s and Strykers, there are approximately 24 tank/APC equipped battalions.  If you consider the M113s as probable mechanized CSS or mortar carriers, that is enough armor for seven brigades: 

9th Division is over strength by three battalions (15 line battalions):

• Two T72/BMP1-equipped tank battalions,  
• Two T72/BMP1-equipped armored cavalry battalions,  
• Two T55/BMP1-equipped tank battalions,  
• Two BMP1-equipped “tank” battalions,  
• One Type 63-equipped mechanized reconnaissance battalion,  
• Two M113-equipped mechanized reconnaissance battalions, 
• One EE9-equipped light armored reconnaissance battalion, and  
• Three BTR80-equipped mechanized battalions.

To be delivered (two battalions): 

• Two tank battalion’s worth of T72 tanks from Slovakia, donated by NATO.

Elsewhere in the Iraqi Army (6 or more battalions):

• Three BMP1-equipped “tank” battalions,  
• One salvaged wheeled APC equipped motorized battalion, and 
• At least two M113-equipped mechanized or mechanized engineer battalions. 

6.  The armor that is not assigned to the 9th Division is on attachment from 9th Division, and stated plans indicates the probable distribution of 9th Division’s armor as it upgrades:

• 14th Division in Basrah has the T55/BMP-equipped 1-36 Tank Battalion attached from 9th Division.
• 7th Division’s 29th Brigade in western Anbar has two BMP1-equipped “tank” battalions.
• 11th Division’s 44th Brigade in Sadr City has one BMP1-equipped “tank” battalion.
• 5th Division’s 20th Brigade in Diyala has two under strength battalions of salvaged APCs.
• 3rd Division (probably 11th Brigade) in western Ninawa has an unknown number of M113s.
• The Presidential Brigades and Baghdad Brigade have always been planned to be a mix of armor, motorized, and light infantry.  So far those three brigades are only light infantry.  Two of the three brigades are missing battalions. 

[Have I completely confused you yet?  Remember the basic policy change became known to me on 18 August 2009.  What is the date of this post?  How long has it taken me to put all this together?  How long to make sense of all these factors?  “Everything is simple in the military, and the simplest things in the military are most difficult.”]

What this means is the listed 9th Division brigades/battalions in detail 5 are being transferred to the brigades listed in detail 6.  This means that Ninawa, Diyala, Anbar, and Basrah provinces are converting or expanding forces  to a full-strength mechanized or armored brigade assigned to a division in each.  One of the replaced brigades appears to be becoming an Iraqi Marine Brigade.  The first upgrade and formation of the 5-36 Armor Battalion is already happening. The shift of forces has is already beginning with Basrah but, it was obscured by the previous policy.

The T55/BMP-equipped 1-36 Tank Battalion from 9th Division is attached to 14th Division in Basrah.  The recent reference to 52nd Brigade (14 Div) as “Navy” and the recent training of members of the new 5-36 Tank Battalion on M1A1s indicate the 36th Armor Brigade (9th Division) is the first to upgrade to M1A1s. As the 36th Brigade upgrades, the 1-36 Tank Battalion in Basrah will probably be joined by the 2-36 “Tank” Battalion (BMP1s), and 3-36 Armored Cavalry Battalion (T72/BMP1) forming a new 52nd Armored Brigade with the addition of a new BSB.

The existing 52nd Brigade (14th Division) appears to be transferring to the Iraqi Marines. 

The 3rd Division’s (probably) 11th Brigade in western Ninawa and the 11th Division’s 44th Brigade in east Baghdad will add armor and BSBs, becoming mechanized or armored brigades. 

The 7th Division’s 29th Brigade in west Anbar and the 5th Division’s 20th Brigade in Diyala will each gain a tank battalion and a BSB, finishing their conversion to the 20th and 29th Mechanized Brigades.

The 37th Brigade (9th Division) is uniquely equipped with EE9 90mm gun armed Scout Cars and BTR-80 APCs organized in four battalions.  I had asked repeatedly if the Iraqis were going to equip the Presidentials with the 37th Brigade's armor in early 2007.  At the time, this was not planned.  With the planned upgrade of the 9th Division, the 37th Brigade's armor and the two new tank battalions-worth of T72s are probably going to the 2nd Presidential Brigade and Baghdad Brigade.  The praetorian brigades would get:

• Baghdad Brigade becomes armored:  Two T72-equipped armored battalions formed from Slovakian donated tanks probably are to be formed and the existing 1st Baghdad Infantry Battalion upgraded with BTR80s transferred from the 37th Brigade.
• 2nd Presidentials become motorized:  The EE9’s of the 4-37 Light Armored Reconnaissance Battalion will probably be added to form a new battalion and the two existing infantry battalions would be upgraded to motorized with the remaining 37th Brigade BTR80s.
• 1st Presidentials has the personal security role and would remain primarily light infantry mounted on HMMWVs.

If you factor in delivery time for the M1A1s and Strykers, this initial redistribution will happen over the next 18 months.

There are still a few more details missing concerning the redistribution of armor in Iraqi forces.  For example:

• How much functional or salvageable armor does the Peshmerga have from the salvage of the old Iraqi Army’s1st Mechanized Division and 5th Mechanized Division plus other IA in the north from 2003?  (This is estimated at a minimum of two brigade’s worth.)
• How much of the KRG's armor is going to the IA with the absorption of the Peshmerga?If there is enough and they are available, they could further upgrade more brigades of the Iraqi Army or they could incorporate a mechanized or armored brigade in the transferred Peshmerga Divisions.

It is possible that this analysis is wrong and the IA is not upgrading brigades and reinforcing locations that have armor already.  Alternatively, they might: 

• Start the formation of  the 18th Mechanized Division in Maysan and/or 19th Mechanized Division in Wassit from the 9th Division’s replaced armor,  
• Spread the replaced 9th Division armor and mechanized brigades/battalions throughout more divisions, or  
• The Iraqi Army could go with independent brigades.  Etc.

All predictions and analysis of Iraqi armor distribution in the near future are affected by this policy change in armor distribution.  In September 2009, the 5-36 Armor Battalion will have its full strength of M1A1 crews trained.  As the 5-36 completes battalion level training this fall, the next transfer of of a battalion to the provinces should occur.