Blog


Your Categories
June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010
Iraqi Air Defense Dilemma
09/15/2009

Iraq has a major problem.  Iraq’s air defense is the US Forces in Iraq and those forces are gone at the end of 2011.  That region is too dangerous to go without air cover.

   

The earliest that new fighters could start delivering is 2014.  Then there is two to three years of training.  Iraq cannot afford more than one squadron of fighters per year.  It takes a minimum of five squadrons provide Iraq with a basic credible air defense.  That means the earliest Iraq could have a basic air defense using new aircraft is after 2020.

   

There are all sorts of speculation and suggestions as to how to provide an air defense to fill that eight year gap.  The most common comes from those that advocate surface-to-air missiles as a means to provide air defense.  But that does not cover the gap.  Iraq has to pay up front and it takes an air defense brigade to cover the area that a fighter squadron can cover.

   

In one article, the suggestion was to buy 10 batteries of Patriots and four squadrons of F16.  The problem is that that does not address the manufacture, delivery, and training time needed.  The gap still exists.  It also understates the needed systems:

  1. Patriot is a high-altitude area defense system with anti-ballistic missile defense capabilities.  To cover those areas you need two to three low-altitude batteries.  Each Patriot Battery would have to be an Air Defense Battalion. 
  2. Then there is still the cost, delivery time, and training time for the missile systems and the fighter squadrons.
  3. Also, to field four operational squadrons you would need five squadrons of aircraft.  The fifth squadron for training and spares for the other four. 
  4. The Iraqi Ministry of Defense is not looking at surface to air missiles as an option.  Iraq cannot afford to buy, train, and field fighters and SAMs at the same time.  It is one or the other.   
  5. Without the fighters, the number of SAMs needed triples.  That increases personnel training, costs and training time.  In terms of manpower, money, and fielding times, SAMs do not answer the basic problem.

  

In “US Lend/Lease to Iraq? “, the only option that comes close to meeting the 2012 deadline was addressed.  If the US loans, leases, or donates enough of the fighters being retired early from the USAF, then the delivery becomes 2010.  That would allow the Iraqi Air Force to start training in 2010 and to become operational in 2012-2013.  That narrows the gap to one, possibly two years.

 

That buys Iraq time to take delivery of newer aircraft to replace the used aircraft.

   

Iraq has a problem, partially of its own government’s making.  Because of the insistence on a US withdraw by 2012, Iraq needs an air defense to start training in the next year.   Most of the ideas do not answer that basic problem of time and money.  The questions now are: 

  1. Is the US Government willing to provide enough aircraft to cover Iraq?
  2. How many aircraft and how much support equipment is the US going to provide?
  3. How soon will delivery start?
  4. Is the Iraqi and US governments willing to cover the gap with residual US air, support, and training after the deadline?
  5. And what air tracking systems are they going to get in that time to direct the fighters?  AWACS?

 

DJ what is the Cheapest Capable Tracking System for such number and Area ??

Almaleki (09/18/2009 07:15:50)

 

If I were Iraq, I would try to talk the US out of 18-24 E-2C Hawkeyes. The USN is upgrading to a newer version so some should be available.//// The problem with ground based systems is they require more radars, communications, and instalations to cover the area adequately.//// Using three E-2Cs in North, Central, and South (four if you want to cover Western Anbar), you can cover the same area as a network of radar sites, including the low-altitudes that might be blocked by terrain-masking.//// I would go with 6 birds per sector to provide continuous coverage. Six hours per bird up and two spares for unexpected maintenance.

DJ Elliott (09/19/2009 01:50:10)

 

Hi DJ Can you read these articles, the first one is an interview with the Serbian defense minister talking about Iraqis military orders. The second is a notification to congress about Iraqis order of the communication equipment that Iraq ordered last year through FMS. As always I get the best information. http://www.cordmagazine.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=737&Itemid=1 http://209.85.229.132/search?q=cache:uFgz6tsjrY0J:edocket.access.gpo.gov/2009/E9-19541.htm+%22Iraqi+Ministry+of+defense%22&cd=16&hl=en&ct=clnk so what do you think?

jack Winters (09/21/2009 04:46:37)

 

here's something from the rumour mill.... IT APPEARS that pressure is mounting on both the United states government as well as Lockheed Martin from sources including Kuwait, saudi arabia as well as Israel not to go ahead with the deal for F-16 c/d block 50/52 or even refurbished f-16 retiring from the USAF , my sources within the IrAF say that the airforce and the government are well aware of this pressure and official spokesman have said to the americans ( we are getting front line multi role aircraft be it F-16 or others) sources within the airforce are pushing towards Mirage2000/rafale deal with france or 29SMT/SU-30k http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/showthread.php?t=94322

sheytanelkebir (09/21/2009 05:07:33)

 

Jack: No details in the Serb interview.//// The comms order is to stand up the SIGINT elements and comms required reported on as planned last spring. Part of the support structure build. E.G. When we turn over the HMMWVs we strip the radios and guns. That action turns them into truck for export vice restricted military items. IMoD has to buy their own radios and guns to refit them. 8,500x radios and guns...

DJ Elliott (09/21/2009 08:41:52)

 

sheytanelkebir: Without knowing the source of this RUMINT, I cannot give it credibility.//// That claim is not showing up in varifiable sources and the US Congress has already authorized 36 F16s for export to Iraq last year.///// That is what the FMS notices are about. They give the US Congress 30-days to say no. If they do not say no then they are legal to export. The US Congress has not passed or even debated any laws restricting aircraft exports to Iraq.//// Pure Rumor...

DJ Elliott (09/21/2009 08:51:52)

 

Hi DJ Iraq has bought new optics for its helicopters; I’m assuming they are the bell 407s and some recon aircraft, they are made to fit with Iraqi air force specifications/ they are 50 pounds less in weight. This is the link http://www.rotor.com/Default.aspx?tabid=510&newsid905=62202 what do you think?

Jack Winters (09/22/2009 03:22:48)

 

DJ The Iraqi air-force is also buying tracking equipment for up to 150 aircraft to track the aircraft in Iraqi air space in real time. This is the link/ as always I get the best info… http://www.prweb.com/releases/guardian-mobility/iraqi-air-force/prweb2917004.htm

Jack winters (09/22/2009 03:29:43)

 

DJ Can you read this article its very interesting, whether to use counter insurgency aircraft or fighter jets What do you think? http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/From-crop-dusting-to-counterinsurgency_-8273997-60056847.html

Jack winters (09/22/2009 03:35:36)

 

Jack Winters (09/22/2009 03:22:48): Same system is on the King Air 350 ISR birds and the C208s. Used it before, good system. Wescam also does the overhead EO systems for sports arenas...

DJ Elliott (09/22/2009 10:27:40)

 

Jack winters (09/22/2009 03:35:36): Just illustrates that the author is biased against non-jets. In a permissive environment, turboprop (not-WWII) aircraft are effective strike birds. Far more practical than jets.//// In a non-permissive environment you need the jets. The turbo-props would not survive. There is a good reason why we were flying A-1s in Vietnam...

DJ Elliott (09/22/2009 10:35:51)

 

How good of a job do turboprop light fighters do against SAMs and other air defense systems? It is worth remembering that the Punjabi Taliban (Lashkar e Taiba, Jaish e Mohammed, some other folks associated with Haqqani and ISI) shot down some Indian Mig 29s in the Kargil battle in 1999. Something like this is possible in Afghanistan too. I think the ANAAC is making a big mistake by only buying 14 "A-29 type" light attack turboprops. Given how cheap they are (what is the life cycle cost of one of these birds?), many more need to be purchased for the ANSF. Jack winters, would love to touch base offline. If you are interested, please feel free to contact me via DJ.

anan (09/23/2009 03:43:23)

 

Well Iraq made a very heavy use of the PC7 and PC9 turboprop aircraft armed with 7.62mm gunpods and 2.75" rocket pods during the 1980-88 war. These aircraft clocked up more "combat flight hours" than any other aircraft/helicopter in service on either side of the conflict. Sure, some were lost to ground fire, but they were no more vulnerable to iranian SHORADS than the MiG21s... and they spent a lot more time in the line of fire than any of the "jets". Also these planes are very good for ejections, and even if a plane is hit, there's usually time for the crew to safely eject. I think the afghans don't appreciate these aircraft because during the soviet period, they never had any such CO-IN aircraft (Mi24s and SU25 were the call of the day).

sheytanelkebir (09/23/2009 06:18:32)

 

Anan: "In a permissive environment..."//// High SAM threat is not a permissive environment.

DJ Elliott (09/23/2009 06:19:24)

 

Hi DJ A few minutes ago the Iraqi foreign minister Houshyar Zebari was interviewed by Al-Hurra, on a Program called (Free Hour). He was asked about if the US will leave equipment for the Iraqi forces; He said, yes the US military will leave substantial amounts of equipment in the billions of dollars. Asked if it would include tanks or fighter jets; he said he can’t comment on the subject. What do you think DJ? P.S. Anan, feel free to send me...

Jack winters (09/23/2009 05:09:48)

 

No data but, just the support facilities on, and excess equipment for, the 200 remaining bases to turn over would add up to billions.//// Also, I have been expecting a donation of MRAPs for the route-clearance engineers since we started buying so many of them...

DJ Elliott (09/23/2009 10:29:58)

 

????? Bell Helicopter Textron Inc., Hurst, Texas, was awarded on Sept 18, 2009 $6,931,530 firm-fixed-price contract. This contract is for the production of three Bell 407 commercial helicopters to be used as the training system platform for the Iraqi Armed 407 program, as described in pseudo Foreign Military Sale E4-B-UBY. Work is to be performed in Fort Worth, Texas, (55 percent), Mirabel, Quebec, and Canada (45 percent) with an estimated completion date of Dec. 31, 2010. One bid solicited with one bid received. U.S. Army Aviation & Missile Command, CCAM-AR-B, Redstone Arsenal, Ala., is the contracting activity (W58RGZ-09-C-0249).

sheytanelkebir (09/24/2009 08:10:16)

 

sheytanelkebir: I am on distro for those notices. Already in the notes for the next update. Three helos for pilot conversion training...

DJ Elliott (09/24/2009 08:42:22)

 

the sector operations command that is being setup in Ali AB will have a TPS/77 air search radar, range 460km. Seems that Iraq has chosen its "early warning" system.

sheytanelkebir (09/26/2009 05:03:14)

 

Sheytan ... please source ... it would be useful >>>

Almaleki (09/26/2009 09:07:29)

 

sheytanelkebir: That is for civil air traffic control. Useless for low altitude tracking beyond 30km.

DJ Elliott (09/26/2009 11:22:39)

 

PS The contracts have 10 of those radars inbound since they were ordered last year. As to the range you are quoting, that is for above 20,000 feet contacts. They are for ATC of the airliner traffic.

DJ Elliott (09/26/2009 05:14:10)

 

too bad ..

Almaleki (09/26/2009 06:45:49)

 

Are you sure we're talking about the same radars? all the other users seem to be military rather than ATC? and the installation is associated with the ali AB sector Operations Command (i.e. for military early warning). These seem to be direct replacements for Iraq's old thales trs-2230D 3D phased array radars operated in the 1980s-2003, with a similar performance. of course its not going to give you long range low altitude coverage which would need something like the TPS/79?

sheytanelkebir (09/26/2009 07:05:52)

 

They were in the contracts from last fall. And they were stipulated as ATC radars.///// The problem with all ground-based radars is their is no such thing as a low-alt/long-range radar. Even at sea with no land for hundreds of miles, the curvature of the earth provides cover except when you have good ducting, which is wx dependent. And that does not work when you have ground-clutter over land.///// Note: The ATC for all air is under the Iraqi Air Force. They do not have a civil ATC. The same is true for many other countries...

DJ Elliott (09/26/2009 08:15:47)

 

First order is older than I thought. Notice the ATC reference in the notice.../// http://www.asd-network.com/press_detail_B.asp?ID=9588 //// (Washington, September 27, 2006) -- The Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of a possible Foreign Military Sale to Iraq of one AN/FPS-117 or TPS-77 Long Range Air Traffic Control Radar, as well as associated equipment and services. The total value, if all options are exercised, could be as high as $142 million. The Government of Iraq has requested a possible sale of one AN/FPS-117 or TPS-77 Long Range Air Traffic Control Radar, support equipment, management support, spare and repair parts, supply support, training, publications and technical data, U.S. Government and contractor technical assistance and other related elements of logistics support. The estimated cost is $142 million.

DJ Elliott (09/26/2009 08:38:11)

 

Jack Winters, if you want to touch base offline, please e-mail DJ at montrosetoast@comcast.net Thanks, Anand

anan (09/27/2009 04:26:48)

 

the presumed location for the new radar. http://www.dvidshub.net/media/thumbs/img/0909/206761.jpg

sheytanelkebir (09/27/2009 03:44:31)

 

An extra eight stories of hight will extend the low-alt coverage to about 35-40nm (60-70km) depending on what other buildings are in the area high enough to block coverage.

DJ Elliott (09/27/2009 03:57:15)

 

Hi DJ Swiftships Shipbuilders Gets $181M for Iraqi Navy Patrol Boats, here is the link// http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/Swiftships-Shipbuilders-Gets-181M-for-Iraqi-Navy-Patrol-Boats-05812/

Jack winters (09/28/2009 04:30:13)

 

Thanks Jack: Had just read it on my DID RSS feed. Only 9 PBs though. And delivery by Aug 2012 is later than the bid solicitation. Where will the other 6 come from is the new question...

DJ Elliott (09/28/2009 06:54:03)

 

Pic for the iraqi Delegation in serbia : http://i75.photobucket.com/albums/i315/dragan_mig31/SLIKI%20AVIONI/73459228dCgohJ_fs.jpg ,,, Iraqi migs : http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/attachment.php?attachmentid=176706&d=1253008226 http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/attachment.php?attachmentid=176705&d=1253008168 http://www.skybird-ev.de/tour/serbia/23269.jpg <<< Mig-21s offered to iraq .. what a joke : http://i75.photobucket.com/albums/i315/dragan_mig31/SLIKI%20AVIONI/AFMMiG21.jpg http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/attachment.php?attachmentid=176602&d=1252780837 http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/attachment.php?attachmentid=176603&d=1252780866 http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/attachment.php?attachmentid=176604&d=1252780881 http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/attachment.php?attachmentid=176605&d=1252780902 why arent they demonstrating .. IN THE AIR ??!! ,,, look at this : training on intel missions : http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/09/22/332604/picture-iraqs-air-force-demonstrates-reconnaissance-skills-during-us-led.html

Almaleki (09/28/2009 09:16:02)

 

you really need to solve the ENTER thing !!

Almaleki (09/28/2009 09:21:49)

 

Just finished reviewing my notes and put 6+9 together. 9 Swiftship 35m PBs plus the 6 French "Interceptor" PBs equals the 15 total Patrol Boats being ordered. They broke the order up into two parts dilivering in parallel.

DJ Elliott (09/29/2009 05:06:14)

 

i see that will give them more time and maybe money ,, well is the update coming after tomorrow ???

Almaleki (09/29/2009 08:49:55)

 

I normally start on the OOB page archives and updates on the 1st of the month, then the write-up after. Takes awhile...

DJ Elliott (09/29/2009 09:58:06)

 

Hi DJ Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) has been awarded a $28.1 million contract to provide the first phase of an integrated technology network designed to increase the Iraqi Air Force's situational awareness in both military and civilian airspace. a networked communications infrastructure including a Sector Operation Center (SOC) and training suite, a Ground-to-Air Transmitter and Receiver (GATR) site and an AN/TPS-77 long-range air surveillance radar system. What I’m hearing DJ is that Iraq intends to build an entire network based on the AN/TPS77 radar. These are links:- http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-air-force-awards-lockheed-martin-28-million-iraq-air-command-and-control-system-contract-63084492.html http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=BCOM&date=20091001&id=10440791 P.S. the first phase is to finish in 27 months, what do you think?

Jack winters (10/02/2009 02:48:28)

 

What they are talking about is ATC. Right now the only ATC radars in Iraq belong to the US Military.//// Note: I already told you that there are 10 TPS-77s in the pipeline. And the contracting has consistently been announced as ATC in the notices and in the briefs.

DJ Elliott (10/02/2009 02:59:55)

 

Abi AB [Tallil] is joint civil/mil; aka Nasariyah International Airport.//// There are 8 International Airports in Iraq and plans for two more totaling 10. And 10 TPS-77 being bought. ATC radars based at the International Air Ports.//// Will it be linked to the military? Absolutely. Just like US FAA feed is linked to NORAD. It does not make an air-defense grid.

DJ Elliott (10/02/2009 03:09:39)

Post your Comment




(optional)

(optional)





   
Update security code

DJ Elliott