It’s Oscar Day 7:28 p.m. update—picks below Click HERE for an Oscar sheet. Yes, it’s too soon, but here we are at the big day. Wish I could say it was more exciting, but it’s all kind of blah. My lack of excitement is actually due to a different reason. Normally the races are all completely sewn up, making it predictable as all hell. But this year, there’s a ton of ambiguity, especially in the actress categories. I’ll get to the reasons for this below, but suffice to say there should be at least some surprises. No, this year I’m not quite as excited because I think the crop of films just isn’t up to par. Perhaps this is because the first nominees I saw (Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire) were serious levels above the rest. But at the base end, it looks like we got a lot of subpar entire films with some decent performances. Which is fine, I guess, but it would be nice of there were whole entire films that were good enough to make the cut. With Oscar audiences continuing to wane, I think you’ll see a bit of a boost here with Hugh Jackman and Slumdog Millionaire, both of which are likely to pull in bigger audience for the show. I also like to think that the lack of certainty in many key categories will pull some folks in, but you never know. At this point I’m just waiting to get past the Oscars an on to Watchmen.

The line 2/22/09 IN THEATRES The Reader Wow… I really have no idea what the point of this movie was, other than to show a lot of sex between a young kid and an older woman and to show a lot of Kate Winslet naked. I blame Harvey Weinstein for this even being a contender. It’s really not up to par and if it didn’t have Kate Winslet and Nazis, it probably wouldn’t even be considered. That said, I guess it was fine, if you don’t actually need to know why something is happening. Of course, my feeling here is that sitting through two of hours of something pretty difficult, I really need a reason—a reason better than “reading is fundamental.” Very disappointing. Doubt Different than the play, but better than I expected, thanks to great performances by the actors. Really solid story of did he or didn’t he based on a priest and a young kid who happens to be the only Black student at an all-white Catholic school. Not much too it—it’s a play, so there’s a lot of talky talk, but what’s there is first-rate. Too bad none of these people will win. Trailer Park Can’t wait for summer? Me either! Here’s a look at what’s on tap for the next big season. Angels & Demons: Looks decent, though they show WAAAY too much, as per usual. Can you tell who the bad guy is from the trailer? I can! GI Joe: Wow, better than expected. I’d actually see it. Inglorious Basterds: Tarantino makes a WWII movie? Um, yeah. OK. Everyone hates Nazis. Taking of Pelham 123: Not sure why they re-made this, but Travolta looks bad ass, so it might be fine. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen: Like the other one, but with more Transformers beating each other up and ripping up the city. Take it or leave it.

2/22/2009, 7:28 P.m. No Guts, No Glory. OK, My pix are done and here they are. You will notice I’ve gone entirely back to my 1/26 list and dissed Penelope Cruz. Because, well, at this point I’m starting not to care. But don’t take my grumpiness to heart. BTW, this story in today’s NYT about Hollywood’s grumblings behind the scenes about the snore-fest on this year’s Oscars is hilarious! OK, this is it. I’m done. Back after the show. Picture: Slumdog Director: Danny Boyle Actor: Sean Penn Actress: Kate Winslet Sup Actor: Heath Ledger Sup Actress: Viola Davis Animated Film: Wall-E Orig Screenplay: Wall-E Adapt Screenplay: Slumdog Cinematography: Slumdog Art Direction: Button Foreign Language: Waltz with Bashir Film Editing: Slumdog Costume Design: The Duchess Visual Effects: Button Makeup: Button Sound Editing: Dark Knight Sound Mixing: Dark Knight Score: Slumdog Song: Slumdog Doc Feature: Man on Wire Doc Short: The Witness Animated short: Presto Live action short: Toyland Who wins most and how many: Slumdog 7 2/22/2009, 2:57 P.m. OK, last shot at the handicapping before the big show. Good news/bad news scenario on this one. Thanks to the Guilds we know that Slumdog is pretty much a lock for Best Picture and Director. But thanks to SAG and Harvey Weinstein, the acting categories are all messed up. SAG putting Kate Winslet’s The Reader role in the supporting category has set up a weird conflict where two SAG acting winners will go at it in the same category, while in the supporting actress category we have no Guild win to go by. If you’re the type of person who votes who you think SHOULD win as opposed to who you think WILL win, then this is a bitch of a year for you. There’s no way the "should" wins are going to triumph this year. Too many big names, too much politics and yes, too many studios that screwed up Oscar campaigns. Kate Winslet, as great an actress as she is, doesn’t deserve an Oscar for The Reader. She’s good, sure, but she’s had much better performances and definitely that entire film is middling at best. I’d say the same for Sean Penn in Milk. Again, he was good, but not great, and the entire film needed a better screenplay. But that’s never stopped the Academy from giving things out, otherwise Tommy Lee Jones wouldn’t be sitting at home with Ralph Fiennes Schindler’s List Oscar. So maybe it’s not what you win for, but that you have an Oscar at all. For your picks, though, it’s definitely time for hard-ass pragmatism. Sean Penn got an Oscar recently, BUT, he’s playing an activist of the gay movement, which allows Hollywood to look enlightened. He’s good enough to pass muster, so they’re not just giving it away, and who else are they going to give it to—Mickey Rourke. Yeah I don’t think so. I think he’s going to have the Eddie Murphy credibility problem. By way of full disclosure, I will say that I did NOT go to see Benjamin Button, mostly because I just don’t care to. But also because this is a year where I tend to think seeing the movies can hurt more than help, especially if you have trouble marking your sheet with someone you know shouldn’t win. Same scenario goes to town in the Actress category. Kate Winslet has been a bridesmaid 5 times now. She’s a great actress of her generation and her only competition is going up against the great actress of the last generation, the 14-time nominee, 2-win Meryl Streep. And again, the role is OK enough that they can give it to her—kind of like Denzel getting his Oscar for Training Day and not for The Hurricane. Heath can’t lose in the supporting category, though Hollywood hates giving out posthumous Oscars, I tend to think that in this case, there’s no way he’s not winning. My only change from my early picks (see below) would be to shift from Viola Davis to Penelope Cruz, for no good reason other than she’s picked up most of the buzz heading into Oscar Day and Viola, though she’s great in Doubt, is only in the movie for about 10 minutes. Might work for Judi Dench, but somehow I don’t think Viola can get away with it. Today’s Calls If I had to pick them today: Picture: Slumdog (same as 1/26) Actress: Kate Winslet (same as 1/26) Actor: Sean Penn (same as 1/26) Sup Actor: Heath Ledger (same as 1/26) Sup Actress: Penelope Cruz (different than 1/26) Director: Danny Boyle (same as 1/26) Adapt Screenplay: Slumdog (same as 1/26) Orig Screenplay: Wall-E (same as 1/26) So, that’s where it is. I’ll post my final picks by 7:55 p.m. and we’ll see how it goes.

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