   December, 2002  |
Comments & Opinions |
The Stock Market in November
S&P 500 Closed at 936.31, up 45.60 (+5.12%) for the
month
S&P 500 Closed at 936.31, up 45.60 (+5.12%) for the month
November proved to be another pretty good month for the stock market. While the 5.12 percent gain in the S&P 500 falls short of October's gain, that progress is still at a 60+ percent annualized rate. That kind of growth is not going to continue. The ELF Report's short-term indicators already are showing signs of weakness, and I expect that we are going to see some consolidation in the markets at least by January.
Of course, some segments of the market are beginning to show the same kinds of excesses that led to the recent market collapse. The ELF Report's Mid Cap Portfolio, for example, was up over 19 percent dollar-wise in November; and the four stocks we added to that portfolio on October 5 already have jumped onto our "Best Current Stock Performers" list. Only two of the best performers have been in the portfolios for longer than two months! That's a danger signal to me, because the underlying fundamentals of these companies did not reflect extreme undervaluation nor do their current growth prospects look that good. In spite of the pain most investors have experienced over the recent wringing out of market excesses, we appear to be jumping right back into that speculative pattern.
This quick market recovery and its incumbent risky speculation means that investors who are out of the market probably have already missed the big gains through the first quarter of 2003. While the ELF Report's Total Return Portfolio has struggled for the last six months, I expect that it will provide the safety and return enhanced by dividends that more reasonable and cautious investors will find appealing.
During December we will be doing some updating and revising of the Web site. We will begin to reflect our most recent adjustments to our market timing strategies.
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ELF Report Short-Term Strategy |
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ELF Report Long-Term Strategy |
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Buy & Hold S&P 500 Strategy |
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During the first three years of tracking the results of the ELF Report Short-Term Strategy, the strategy beat the performance of a buy and hold strategy (the equivalent of maintaining an investment in an S&P 500 index fund) by 50.01 percent. The ELF Report Long-Term Strategy beat the S&P 500 by 27.13 percent during that same period. See the Market Timing Page for details. |
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THE ELF REPORT'S |
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Ticker |
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Gain |
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SUNW |
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77.27% |
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KLAC |
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64.08% |
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ADI |
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58.93% |
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EDS |
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52.16% |
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NCOG |
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51.34% |
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C |
Large Cap |
38.96% |
The ELF Report . . .
is an investment newsletter for individual investors. It provides investment information related to several hypothetical stock portfolios, BUY and SELL signals on individual stocks in those portfolios, and market timing information. An explanation of the investment philosophy is provided for each portfolio along with a record of the results each portfolio has shown since its inception. The ELF Report is published without cost, but the publisher reserves the right to institute subscription charges in the future. The notification service is no longer provided to subscribers.Privacy Notice: The ELF Report does not collect any data about users of the site with the exception of using a service that registers hits to the Home Page and provides in tabular form composite data about what links led users to the site and what kinds of system resources are used in viewing the site. These data are used to improve the site's appearance, format, and usability. No data about individual users is maintained, and users are not denied access to the site if this information is not available.
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TOP
PORTFOLIOS |
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Rank |
Portfolio |
Annualized Return |
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2 |
Undervalued |
25.90% |
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3 |
Stable Growth |
17.83% |
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4 |
Total Return |
13.53% |
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