Market Timing Indicators

The ELF Report
STRATEGY RESULTS

ELF Report Short-Term Strategy
112.60

ELF Report Long-Term Strategy
93.56

BUY & HOLD S&P 500
70.99

Indices = 100 on 4/17/99

The ELF Report
STRATEGY RESULTS

THE ELF REPORT
SHORT-TERM STRATEGY

Date

Action

ELF Strategy

S&P Buy and Hold

4/17/99

Invested

$1,000.00

$1,000.00

07/03/99

Money Market

$1,054.75

$1,054.75

08/07/99

Invested

$1,059.81

$985.82

11/19/99

Money Market

$1,159.01

$1,078.09

02/18/00

Invested

$1,173.46

$1,020.54

04/17/00

1 Year Results

+22.17%

+6.25%

09/30/00
Money Market

$1,252.28

$1,089.09

04/17/00
1-Year Results
+5.31%
-14.98%
04/17/00
2-Year Results
+28.66%
-9.66%
08/18/01
Invested

$1,307.52

$880.95

11/24/01
Money Market

$1,294.43

$872.13

02/23/02
Invested

$1,310.57

$826.26

04/19/02
1-Year Results
+5.17%
-5.57%
04/19/02
3-Year Results
+35.31%
-14.70%
Current
Invested

$1,125.95

$709.86

THE ELF REPORT
LONG-TERM STRATEGY

Date

Action

ELF Strategy

S&P Buy and Hold

04/17/99

Money Market

$1,000.00

$1,000.00

10/23/99

Invested

$1,025.89

$986.85

04/17/00

1-Year Results

+10.45%

+6.25%

1/13/01
Money Market

$1,039.21

$999.66

04/17/01
1-Year Results
-4.71%
-14.98%
04/17/01
2-Year Results
+5.26%
-9.66%
09/08/01
Invested

$1,072.90

$823.18

12/22/01
Money Market

$1,131.31

$868.00

4/6/02
Invested

$1,147.59

$851.20

04/19/02
1-Year Results
+6.82%
-5.57%
04/19/02

3-Year Results

+12.43%
-14.70%
Current
Invested

$935.58

$709.86

The ELF Report Long-Term and Short-Term Strategies were launched on April 17, 1999. They are reported on an assumed initial investment of $1000 that is:

  • put in a money market fund under SELL signals (assumed to earn a constant 5.0%)
  • put in an S&P 500 index fund (or SPY or IVV) under BUY signals (assumed to match the changes in the S&P 500 Index)
  • held in the last investment between signals.

The S&P Buy & Hold comparisons are based on changes in the S&P 500 Index during the period in which the strategies have been tracked.

During the first three years of tracking the results of the ELF Report Short-Term Strategy, the strategy beat the performance of a buy and hold strategy (the equivalent of maintaining an investment in an S&P 500 index fund) by 50.01 percent. The ELF Report Long-Term Strategy beat the S&P 500 by 27.13 percent during that same period.


The ELF Report Market Timing Strategy

LONG-TERM STRATEGY

CURRENT STATUS = HOLD ON A BUY SIGNAL

BUY signal on 4/6/02
with the S&P 500 at 1122.73
S&P change since BUY signal = -16.60%
Last confirmed on 10/11/02
with S&P 500 at 835.32

SHORT-TERM STRATEGY

CURRENT STATUS = HOLD
ON A BUY SIGNAL

BUY signal on 2/23/02
with the S&P 500 at 1089.84
S&P change since BUY signal = -14.09%
Last confirmed on 11/15/02
with S&P 500 at 909.83

 

 

 

CURRENT READING

-3.08 (down 4.62 this month)

 

 

 


A reading of 10 on the 13-week market timing index produces a short-term BUY signal, while a reading of 20 produces a long-term BUY signal. A reading of -10 produces a short-term SELL signal, while a reading of -20 produces a long-term SELL signal.

Walker Market Letter

Lowrisk Market Allocation Model
Signal Strength = 11 on scale of 20
on 11/26/2002
Disaster Avoidance Strategy
100% in stocks since 12/6/00

Graduated Strategy
50% in stocks since 10/17/02

Timing Strategy
0% in stocks since 6/11/01

SuperBear Strategy
0% in stocks since 12/14/98

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LINKS TO OTHER INVESTMENT SITES

InvestorMap.com The best financial directory on the net. Thousands of links (including descriptions!) in over a hundred categories. Lots of other investing resources including our "Daily Market" page.

The BlackStump A most comprehensive Website from our friends "down under."

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DISCLAIMERS

Information in the ELF Report is based on sources believed to be reliable. Historical figures and projections are not guaranteed, and past performance cannot be used as a predictor of future results. Investigate carefully and make your own responsible decisions before making any investment choices based on the ELF Report's recommendations. Good sources for investigating before you invest can be found on the Stock Picks page as well as at Yahoo and the Wall Street Research Network.

Persons associated with the ELF Report may own securities and/or options of issues described in the Report and may make purchases or sales before or while this Report is in circulation. No person associated with the ELF Report holds a substantial interest in the stock of any company mentioned in the Report or receives any compensation for recommending the purchase or sale of any stock or mutual fund mentioned. As a newsletter publisher, the ELF Report does not manage investments as a registered investment advisor nor does it engaged in the brokerage business; and thus, this newsletter is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.

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