Final Six Analysis:

Okay, so every year, people start screaming about how American Idol is just a popularity contest, and every year I say the same thing: It is and it isn’t. Because it starts out like a popularity contest, but as we get closer to the end, it does ultimately become a referendum on who is the best singer. The past four winners have easily been the best singers each year, so if it was just a vote on who was the best looking or who had the best personality, Reuben wouldn’t have even been in the top six in season two. As a matter of fact, Kelly was a bit bland, Fantasia was no beauty queen, and Carrie, for all her good looks, was duller than dirt (who would you have wanted to hang out with, Carrie or Bo?). Just because some bad singers coast on their personalities for half of the competition doesn’t mean that they’re going to win. Not by a long shot. So as we close in on the singing portion of the competition, here’s the way I see it in reverse order of their DialIdol rankings:

Paris – I worry about Paris’s future on the show in the two weeks due to the fact that she is constantly in the bottom three or four lately and hasn’t been able to pick up any of the votes that Lisa or Mandisa left behind. Lisa’s little girl votes appear to have gone to Kellie and Mandisa’s big voice votes may have stopped coming in for a couple of weeks (some of the Mandisa fans I know quit watching the show in disgust for a couple of weeks) and now they seem to be voting for Katharine. Her inability to get more votes is not a good sign, and the only saving grace is the hope that her fans relaxed last week but will be back in full force due to her appearance in the bottom three. Or maybe some of the legion of deluded Pickler voters will come to their senses and vote for a real singer and not a fake. In any case, it's a tough road ahead for arguably the best singer in the competition, and although it's disappointing that Paris' votes are not equal to her level of talent, she hasn't put together a string of great performances to live up to her potential and that blame lies with her. What she has to realize is that singing is 90% of this competition and to stop with the attempts at dancing and showboating that detract from her vocals.

Chris – A lot of people were shocked that Chris was in the bottom three, but the problem with Chris at this point is that he has the fans he started with and apparently that’s it. Without Bucky’s fans coming over, he’s got a voting bloc that let him coast to this point, but there may not be enough votes for him to keep out of the bottom three any more. Chris' only hope is to gather Ace's voting block considering he's the best looking of the three male contestants. And if he's not allowed to be in his element for the next few weeks, he won't be able to muster up anything worth voting for.

Kellie – Okay, so every year, there seems to be one person who is obviously a sucky singer but gets good support and coasts through without merit, although this year’s model is especially galling because she such a phony douche. I mean, the extent of this girl’s talent is to stay on key, but she’s no singer, and her Ditzy Blonde act wore thin weeks ago. Only a mini-scandal, total butchering of a song, backlash to her obvious fakery or a flat out miracle (a Tuesday night blackout in the Carolinas?) will prevent Kellie from reaching the top four, but there’s not way she’s going to get further since none of Elliott, Paris, and Chris’ fans are going to throw in with this poseur. However, I thought the same thing last year about Constantine and he unexpectedly bowed out before reaching the top four, so there’s always hope.

Elliott – I am wondering, considering Elliott’s huge uptick in votes, if Bucky’s fans started rooting for Elliott. I would have considered him next to go, but now I’m not so sure. I still think he has more respect than enthusiasm, but he's a solid if unspectacular performer and could slip into the top four. I don't see him in the final two, though.

Katharine – She may be getting Mandisa’s votes and will pick up quite a few of Paris’ votes which makes her a formidable presence in the final four. She will probably pick up a significant portion of Kellie’s votes if she outlasts her. But all of this will be for naught if she doesn’t perform well, and her best scenario involves playing it safe and not trying to hit one out of the park. For all of the judges' effusive comments, she just doesn't come off well at home when she starts screeching. She can outsing all the other contestants in her sleep with the exception of Paris, so she doesn't need to attempt anything extraordinary going into the final two. I think she's uninspired and her mechanical smiling, winking, and nodding are beginning to render her unwatchable, but I would rather see her in the finals than Kellie.

Taylor – Voters just flat out dig Taylor, and he has earned that for the most part. I can see him picking up some of Bucky's voters as well as Chris' and Elliott's if he can stay in the competition. He has the older voters in his pocket, and his versatility and experience allows him to perform well no matter what the theme night is. While Chris is considered by some to be the heir apparent to Bo's “rocker” mantle, Taylor is the real inheritor of the kind of voters who took Bo to the final two. It's a much more accessible bluesy rock that appeals to older voters and not the shouty attitude that is Chris' one trick pony.