So, I was getting a little frustrated with the lack of good statistical analysis on actual adoption timelines. Fortunately, one of the Yahoo groups I belong to does a "Roll Call" where waiting families provide data on their timelines. The sample size is actually fairly good, and I was able to analyze data for those who are exactly in our situation (our LOI was sent prior to our dossier going to China, and this data includes only those families who are in our same situation). The folks who collect the data on Yahoo create a spreadsheet, compute an average, a minimum and maximum, but just looking at numbers doesn't do much to give me an idea of what the data "looks like." So I ran it on SPSS. For those who don't know, "PA" (pre-approval) is essentially having your match blessed by the Chinese government - after that, your dossier paperwork is still reviewed, but China has already said that you look like good parents for this particular waiting child. We may not receive a PA, since our dossier went to China fairly quickly after our LOI (letter of intent), so we may skip directly to TA (travel approval), but a PA would be nice and reassuring for us to receive. Here is a summary of the statistics for the time from LOI being sent to receiving PA from the CCAA (Click on graph to enlarge):




The average LOI to PA wait time is 39 days, but the median is 35 days, which reflects a skewed data set. We are currently at day 44. (So - we're hoping we actually receive our PA this week!) Here's a graph of the data, which shows one really horrid outlier and how the majority of PA's are received BEFORE day 50. And it's really unlikely that we'll go beyond day 60. Knock on wood! (Click on graph to enlarge)




The data for DTC (Dossier to China) to LID (Log In Date) is a lot more unpredictable, and more normally distributed. Our DTC was November 7th, so it's been 12 days. Most of the variation is presumably due to agencies waiting to send dossiers in groups, or waiting for translation in China, or other factors that delay the actual arrival of the dossier at the CCAA. We are 99% sure that our dossier was walked into the CCAA on the 13th, since our agency told us that it was completely translated by the time it arrived in China, and that the 13th was the most likely day that it would be delivered. So, even if the dossier sat on someone's desk for a week (I hope not - but it could, or even longer, for that matter), I'm hoping our LID ends up being around the 17th. That would put our wait for LID at only 10 days, which may be optimistic given the average of 18 days. (Yes, I realize the 17th has come and gone, but you don't find out when your LID actually was until well after the fact - we may not know until December about our November LID). Here's the data (click on graph to enlarge):




And finally - one of the more important things to consider - when the heck are we traveling to bring home our beautiful girl? Well, the data on this is fortunately pretty tightly distributed (click on graph to enlarge).





The average wait time from LID to TA (Travel Approval) is 78 days, and the median value is 76 days. The standard deviation is about 18 days, so it's pretty likely that we'll end up receiving our TA within 2.5 weeks of the average wait time. Of course, the data IS skewed towards the earlier end, so we may end up having a TA that's a bit earlier than average, but I'll build in some pessimism and keep Murphy's law in mind. Here's the histogram (click on graph to enlarge):





Let's say our LID ends up being November 17th, and we wait an average amount of time for our TA. That would make our TA date approximately the 3rd of February. We would leave about for China 1-4 weeks after that, depending on when our Consulate Appointment is scheduled.

Here comes the kicker, though - Chinese New Year (we will NOT be traveling DURING that time) is the week of February 18th next year. The Chinese take the week as a holiday, and it would not work to try to get an adoption done while everybody's off work and partying. So, if we travel in February, we'll have to get our two-week trip in before the 18th. If we don't travel before then, we'll have to wait until the holiday is over, and would be traveling in the first part of March. The University of Colorado's spring break is the week of March 25th... and while I'd rather not wait until mid-March to travel, if we traveled for two weeks and then had a week to recover, I wouldn't complain. (And we'd probably get better airfares with more notice).

So there's my nerdy post for the day, and my predictions for the weeks and months to come!