Wednesday, July 07, 2004
Kerry takes huge lead. It still looks like Bush.
Kerry has selected his running mate, Edwards, making the team a pair of Johns. This has given a boost for Kerry. Now Kerry leads in the NBC poll, 49-41-4%(for Nader). Further, according to Rasmussen Reports, Kerry leads Bush by 5 points in Florida. It seems that Kerry is on a roll. Will his lead increase? I think so. It could go up to 10 points. The Democratic convention is at the end of this month. What will be the Kerry lead after that? 20 points? I think so. Kerry will have an enormous lead. But in November, it still looks like Bush.
The reason why can be found in the 13 Lichtman keys. This is a system of true/false statements ("keys") that predict the winner of a Presidential race. If five of the keys or less are false, the incumbent party wins; if six or more are false ("fallen", "toppled", "down") then the challenging party wins. Right now these keys definitely stand: Key 1, Mandate (from 2002 elections); Key 2, Challenge to Nomination (Bush has clinched the Republican nomination); Key 3, Incumbency (Bush is actually the President); Key 4, Third Party (Nader will hurt Democrats instead); Key 8, Social Unrest (unless massive riots occur in US streets or something); and Key 13, Challenger Charisma (no, Edwards does not count. He isn't running for President. Kerry is definitely not charismatic).
Bush has definitely lost Key 6, Long Term Economy (due to the dot-com bust), Key 7 (policy change - no, the Department of Homeland Security is not a policy change. Bush really has not done much domestically), Key 10, Foreign or military failure (because of 9/11), and Key 12 (he is not charismatic). But that is only four keys.
This leaves Keys 5 (short term economy), 9 (scandal), and 11 (foreign or military success). This means that for Kerry to win, two of these three will have to fall. Earlier I thought that Key 9, Scandal, would fall, because of the Abu Ghraib prisoner scandal. But it seems to have fizzled, even though it exceeds in enormity Clinton's indiscretions and Watergate. The economy seems to be getting better, but the stock market has moved sideways this year. The jobs figures are improving. Things in Iraq are still unsettled, but it looks like Key 11 will hold, especially since he succeeded in overthrowing the Taliban in Afghanistan. These keys could worsen and fall, but right now all three seem to be standing, although wobbly, for the incumbent, George Bush.
That is why I think that Bush will win, polls notwithstanding. I expect that Kerry's 20 point lead will erode somewhat, and then the Republican convention will wipe it out and put Bush in the lead by about 8 points. Bush will start losing that lead but will hang on to enough of it to win. That is, unless some of these keys do fall. But for Kerry to translate today's 8 point lead into residency in the White House, these keys will have to fall soon.
The reason why can be found in the 13 Lichtman keys. This is a system of true/false statements ("keys") that predict the winner of a Presidential race. If five of the keys or less are false, the incumbent party wins; if six or more are false ("fallen", "toppled", "down") then the challenging party wins. Right now these keys definitely stand: Key 1, Mandate (from 2002 elections); Key 2, Challenge to Nomination (Bush has clinched the Republican nomination); Key 3, Incumbency (Bush is actually the President); Key 4, Third Party (Nader will hurt Democrats instead); Key 8, Social Unrest (unless massive riots occur in US streets or something); and Key 13, Challenger Charisma (no, Edwards does not count. He isn't running for President. Kerry is definitely not charismatic).
Bush has definitely lost Key 6, Long Term Economy (due to the dot-com bust), Key 7 (policy change - no, the Department of Homeland Security is not a policy change. Bush really has not done much domestically), Key 10, Foreign or military failure (because of 9/11), and Key 12 (he is not charismatic). But that is only four keys.
This leaves Keys 5 (short term economy), 9 (scandal), and 11 (foreign or military success). This means that for Kerry to win, two of these three will have to fall. Earlier I thought that Key 9, Scandal, would fall, because of the Abu Ghraib prisoner scandal. But it seems to have fizzled, even though it exceeds in enormity Clinton's indiscretions and Watergate. The economy seems to be getting better, but the stock market has moved sideways this year. The jobs figures are improving. Things in Iraq are still unsettled, but it looks like Key 11 will hold, especially since he succeeded in overthrowing the Taliban in Afghanistan. These keys could worsen and fall, but right now all three seem to be standing, although wobbly, for the incumbent, George Bush.
That is why I think that Bush will win, polls notwithstanding. I expect that Kerry's 20 point lead will erode somewhat, and then the Republican convention will wipe it out and put Bush in the lead by about 8 points. Bush will start losing that lead but will hang on to enough of it to win. That is, unless some of these keys do fall. But for Kerry to translate today's 8 point lead into residency in the White House, these keys will have to fall soon.
