Wednesday, August 18, 2004
Pundits say that Bush is in trouble. It still looks like Bush
I heard tonight on CNN that Kerry leads in numerous polls, and that he is ahead in many battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. They also say "This election is Kerry's to lose." and "Bush is in trouble." It certainly seems that way. One electoral college poll shows Kerry with 320 electoral votes to 197 or so for Bush. Indeed, Bush may be in a weaker position than before but the Lichtman keys still say Bush will be elected.
Polls are just the thing that are misleading in Presidential elections, says Allan Lichtman. Prof. Lichtman prefers to look at fundamentals, as encoded in his 13 keys. A review of them shows that Bush has lost the Foreign or Military Failure Key (#10) because of 9/11; the Policy Key (#7) because he has not done much domestically; I guess the Department of Homeland Security does not count; the Incumbent Charisma key (#12), Bush isn't; and the Long Term Economy Key (#6), because of the Dot-Com Bust. I now believe that Bush has lost the Short Term Economy Key (#5). That is because the price of crude oil keeps rising and rising, and there seems to be no stop to it, and because stocks and the economy will go down when crude goes up. Further, employment remains a sore spot in this country, no matter what the official figures say. The people feel the economy is bad, and that is what counts.
But that is still only five keys. He needs to lose one more key to lose the election, and so far, I have not seen that key. There are opportunities for him to lose that key, however. This Iraq thing is not going well, and just today a Republican senator says it was a mistake. If Democrats say the war was wrong, then that's a partisan debate and Bush is unaffected. If Republicans say it was a mistake, then Bush is in trouble. But it will take more than just one senator. If a whole bunch of Congressional Republicans say that Bush made a mistake, that will put Bush in trouble for sure. He would lose the Foreign and Military Success Key (#11), which he has right now because he toppled the Taliban and Saddam Hussein. If the clamor gets loud enough, he may lose the Scandal Key (#9) as well.
But first these things need to happen. Else Bush will take the popular vote come Election Day. Kerry may still squeak by in the Electoral College by winning several large battleground states by slim margins, in which case the score with 2000 is even. But if not, then it is four more years of him. At least that is what it seems like right now.
Polls are just the thing that are misleading in Presidential elections, says Allan Lichtman. Prof. Lichtman prefers to look at fundamentals, as encoded in his 13 keys. A review of them shows that Bush has lost the Foreign or Military Failure Key (#10) because of 9/11; the Policy Key (#7) because he has not done much domestically; I guess the Department of Homeland Security does not count; the Incumbent Charisma key (#12), Bush isn't; and the Long Term Economy Key (#6), because of the Dot-Com Bust. I now believe that Bush has lost the Short Term Economy Key (#5). That is because the price of crude oil keeps rising and rising, and there seems to be no stop to it, and because stocks and the economy will go down when crude goes up. Further, employment remains a sore spot in this country, no matter what the official figures say. The people feel the economy is bad, and that is what counts.
But that is still only five keys. He needs to lose one more key to lose the election, and so far, I have not seen that key. There are opportunities for him to lose that key, however. This Iraq thing is not going well, and just today a Republican senator says it was a mistake. If Democrats say the war was wrong, then that's a partisan debate and Bush is unaffected. If Republicans say it was a mistake, then Bush is in trouble. But it will take more than just one senator. If a whole bunch of Congressional Republicans say that Bush made a mistake, that will put Bush in trouble for sure. He would lose the Foreign and Military Success Key (#11), which he has right now because he toppled the Taliban and Saddam Hussein. If the clamor gets loud enough, he may lose the Scandal Key (#9) as well.
But first these things need to happen. Else Bush will take the popular vote come Election Day. Kerry may still squeak by in the Electoral College by winning several large battleground states by slim margins, in which case the score with 2000 is even. But if not, then it is four more years of him. At least that is what it seems like right now.
