Monday, September 20, 2004
The Keys and a Curse
Another Google alert came out today that I thought was interesting. This time it was a reference to Allan Lichtman in an article by Counterpunch. By clicking on "Counterpunch", you can find the article which caused the alert. It was by Karyn Strickler, who I now find out is Allan Lichtman's wife. She says that the 2000 election was the Curse versus the Keys. It seems there is this fumbum of a campaign worker named Bob Shrum, and that this Democratic worker has worked on many Democratic presidential campaigns, with the property that any campaign that he works for loses. He did not work for Clinton either time, and he got in only a little in the Jimmy Carter campaign. So guess who Bob Shrum is working for? Who else, but Kerry. Further, he worked for Gore in 2000, so that should have meant that Gore would lose in 2000.
However, the 13 Key System of Karyn's husband, based on a methodology used to predict earthquakes, said that Gore would win. He was the incumbent party, and he had lost only five keys - incumbency (3), policy (7), scandal (9), foreign/military success (11) and charisma (12). Six keys down are needed to defeat the incumbent party, so Gore should have won. So Karyn's point was that this was an irresistible force of Shrum versus the immovable Lichtman keys. So what happened?
Both. Gore won the popular vote, which is what the keys were meant to predict. But Bush got into the White House, continuing the Shrum curse. So what now? Evidently, Kerry has to get rid of Shrum. In fact, he has to get rid of all those donkeys that are working for him and try something new, novel, and so decidedly different that it upsets the key theory. Right now the keys also predict Bush. Bush is five keys down; here I differ with Lichtman in that I believe that the short-term economy key (5) has fallen, although that claim is somewhat shaky. This is because people feel like the economy is bad. But still, one more key is needed. Unless the whole roof caves in, like Hurricane Ivan blowing it in, Bush will be reelected and the curse will continue. Maybe Shrum is good for Halloween.
However, the 13 Key System of Karyn's husband, based on a methodology used to predict earthquakes, said that Gore would win. He was the incumbent party, and he had lost only five keys - incumbency (3), policy (7), scandal (9), foreign/military success (11) and charisma (12). Six keys down are needed to defeat the incumbent party, so Gore should have won. So Karyn's point was that this was an irresistible force of Shrum versus the immovable Lichtman keys. So what happened?
Both. Gore won the popular vote, which is what the keys were meant to predict. But Bush got into the White House, continuing the Shrum curse. So what now? Evidently, Kerry has to get rid of Shrum. In fact, he has to get rid of all those donkeys that are working for him and try something new, novel, and so decidedly different that it upsets the key theory. Right now the keys also predict Bush. Bush is five keys down; here I differ with Lichtman in that I believe that the short-term economy key (5) has fallen, although that claim is somewhat shaky. This is because people feel like the economy is bad. But still, one more key is needed. Unless the whole roof caves in, like Hurricane Ivan blowing it in, Bush will be reelected and the curse will continue. Maybe Shrum is good for Halloween.
