Saturday, September 04, 2004
Now Bush takes the lead
I have observed now two polls (Time and Newsweek) saying now that Bush has an 11 point lead over Kerry. Apparently he got a post-convention bounce whereas Kerry did not. I had been predicting all along according to the Lichtman Keys that Bush would win the election, even when Kerry had a substantial lead. It looks like Bush has pulled out, and he may stay in the lead until election day. He is five keys down, and nothing at the Republican Convention suggests that the Social Unrest key has fallen.
Kerry's main hope now is if some key falls before Election Day. But which one? Scandal? Abu Ghraib seems to have fizzled. Foreign and Military Success? No major setbacks in Iraq and Afghanistan. Things are not going well there, especially in Iraq, but nothing has turned up to actually negate Bush on this key. There seems to be no credible third-party challenge; Nader will not work, as he is taking votes away from the Democrat. I am hoping that Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik will get 5%; that would cause the third-party key to fall, but first Badnarak needs to break forth on the national scene.The best chance might be the third-party key, so those who want Kerry to be elected might consider contributing to Badnarik's campaign instead, hoping that these funds somehow would convince conservative Republicans to vote for Badnarik instead of Bush. Otherwise, it looks like Bush in November.
Kerry's main hope now is if some key falls before Election Day. But which one? Scandal? Abu Ghraib seems to have fizzled. Foreign and Military Success? No major setbacks in Iraq and Afghanistan. Things are not going well there, especially in Iraq, but nothing has turned up to actually negate Bush on this key. There seems to be no credible third-party challenge; Nader will not work, as he is taking votes away from the Democrat. I am hoping that Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik will get 5%; that would cause the third-party key to fall, but first Badnarak needs to break forth on the national scene.The best chance might be the third-party key, so those who want Kerry to be elected might consider contributing to Badnarik's campaign instead, hoping that these funds somehow would convince conservative Republicans to vote for Badnarik instead of Bush. Otherwise, it looks like Bush in November.
