Saturday, October 23, 2004
Hawaii for Bush??!
I was amazed to read on Race 2004 that "A new Ward Research poll without Nader in Hawaii has Bush in the lead." Whaaa?? I thought Hawaii was one of Kerry's strongest states. If this is true, Kerry is finished. It means a landslide for Bush somewhere between 1984 and 1988 strength. I am not sure if I would trust this poll. Somehow I have a vague recollection of polls coming out in Hawaii that had Bush ahead. The majority of polls so far have had a strong lead for Kerry, and so I expect that Hawaii would go for Kerry and the election will be close.
But yet this election is not that simple any more. In fact, it is becoming an Alice in Wonderland election. Two other Whaaa??s have occurred recently. First, I hear on CNN, and then in a subscription newsletter, that to win this election, either Bush or Kerry must carry at least two of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. However, this same site Race 2004 shows Kerry carrying (kerrying?) Ohio and Pennsylvania, but yet losing to Bush by 271-267. It shows Bush taking two of three out of the Midwest Dukakis Three (MD3), which is what I call Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Electoral Vote.com shows all three of the MD3 going to Bush, so that Kerry, despite having Pennsylvania and Ohio, still needs Florida for a big-3 sweep to win the election. Perhaps the rule should be revised to say that the winner needs 3 out of 4 of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and the MD3, except that if MD3 splits then the 2 out of 3 rule holds, and if the 4 split, then anything can happen.
And now the big one. Hold on to your hats, folks. Especially you Bush fans out in Hawaii and the MD3. A new national poll out today shows Kerry with a 3-point lead! This is the Associated Press poll, as reported by Bloomberg. (Link probably won't work after 2004 October 31.) So on Election Day, Bush will take the MD3 and Hawaii, but he will lose the election. Right.
What do I think? I withdraw my prediction of Kerry. There have been recent Bush advances, and this has really tightened things up. As I said before, I now regard the Lichtman Keys as useless at this point, because of backward interpretation. So the polls and events the next few days will decide who wins on November 2, and hence whether Kerry becomes the greatest President in American history.
But yet this election is not that simple any more. In fact, it is becoming an Alice in Wonderland election. Two other Whaaa??s have occurred recently. First, I hear on CNN, and then in a subscription newsletter, that to win this election, either Bush or Kerry must carry at least two of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. However, this same site Race 2004 shows Kerry carrying (kerrying?) Ohio and Pennsylvania, but yet losing to Bush by 271-267. It shows Bush taking two of three out of the Midwest Dukakis Three (MD3), which is what I call Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Electoral Vote.com shows all three of the MD3 going to Bush, so that Kerry, despite having Pennsylvania and Ohio, still needs Florida for a big-3 sweep to win the election. Perhaps the rule should be revised to say that the winner needs 3 out of 4 of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and the MD3, except that if MD3 splits then the 2 out of 3 rule holds, and if the 4 split, then anything can happen.
And now the big one. Hold on to your hats, folks. Especially you Bush fans out in Hawaii and the MD3. A new national poll out today shows Kerry with a 3-point lead! This is the Associated Press poll, as reported by Bloomberg. (Link probably won't work after 2004 October 31.) So on Election Day, Bush will take the MD3 and Hawaii, but he will lose the election. Right.
What do I think? I withdraw my prediction of Kerry. There have been recent Bush advances, and this has really tightened things up. As I said before, I now regard the Lichtman Keys as useless at this point, because of backward interpretation. So the polls and events the next few days will decide who wins on November 2, and hence whether Kerry becomes the greatest President in American history.
