Wednesday, October 20, 2004
Now It Looks Like Kerry
I have been watching with interest the polls in recent weeks, although Lichtman of the 13 keys says it does not make any difference. Now they begin to make a difference. Kerry got no post-convention bounce. Bush got a mild one, but the excellent way that Kerry handled the debates caused him to win 2 and tie one, and it erased the difference in the polls. Now the polls are slowly inching his way. I look at several poll places, including Slate, Race 2004.net, and Electoral Vote.com (if that Electoral Vote link gives you an infinite hourglass, try sticking a 2 or a 3 after "-vote", but don't otherwise). These are "metapolls", meaning that they are a poll of polls, including Rasmussen, Survey USA, Gallup, CNN, Zogby and others. These poll results are beginning to show a creep towards Kerry.
Really, most of the states are settled and out of play. The only ones that aren't are the swing states, which in my opinion are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, and good old Florida. Most of these are "plastic peanuts", even moderate ones like Wisconsin. The election seems to be boiling down to the three giants among these states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Up to now, it seems that Pennsylvania has trended towards Kerry, Florida towards Bush, and Ohio right smack in the middle as possibly this year's decisive state. Now the polls indicate almost unanimity for a slim edge for Kerry in Pennsylvania, a bare trend towards Kerry in Ohio, and about as dead even as can be in Florida (not again!). This means that Kerry is slowly getting the advantage.
But wait - don't the Lichtman Keys to the White House show a trend towards Bush, instead? Up to now I have been saying that Bush will win because he has not lost enough of these 13 keys to lose the election. Up to recently, I would say that was the case. However, based on what I have seen recently, I am calling Key 11, Foreign and Military Success (FMS), fallen. This means that Bush has lost six keys, and that costs him the election. Therefore, I am now predicting, rather cautiously and nervously, that Kerry will win this election and send Bush back to Texas.
What are the Lichtman Keys? A few years ago, Prof Allan Lichtman published his book about 13 keys, or statements about the candidates and the country. These are the statements, along with my assessment of them.
1. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
Stands. This is a numerical fact, caused by the Republican sweep of 2002.
2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
Stands. No one dare run against him in the Republican nomination.
3. The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Stands. George W. Bush is the President.
4. There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Stands. No third party is coming anywhere near 5% of the vote, which is required to topple this key. They all are going to get about 1% or less, unless something dramatic happens.
5. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Falls. Up to about two months ago, I would say this one stands. But what matters are not figures, but how people feel about the economy. I don't think people feel good about the economy, as can be seen in such places as Ohio. So I called this one down about two months ago. By the way, Allan Lichtman disagrees with me on this, saying it still stands.
6. Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Falls. This was ensured by the Dot-Com bust of 2000 March.
7. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Falls. Some would argue that the Department of Homeland Security is a major change. But apparently this was just shuffling the blocks around. These blocks perform pretty much the same functions as before the creation of the Department. So Allan, and I, call this one down.
8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Stands. The anti-Iraq War protests were not enough to topple this key, which requires massive demonstrations and unrest comparable to 1968.
9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Stands. Several possibilities, but all have fizzled, including Abu Ghraib.
10. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Planeattack, or 9/11, was definitely a foreign and military failure.
12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Falls. Bush is not charismatic; he's quirky instead.
13. The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Stands. Kerry to me has a powerful, commanding voice, but not quite the style to create charisma
That's five keys down. Now the decider:
11. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Up to now we have all been saying that invading Iraq and Afghanistan are foreign or military successes. After all, we did kick out the Taliban, scattered Al Qaeda all over the place, killed Saddam's sons and captured Saddam. But that's only part of the story. Sure we captured Saddam, but at the cost of being stuck in a quagmire war where insurgents shoot at US troops every day. The country is slow in coming back, and its oil exports have actually decreased. But what seals this one is public opinion. If you look at the polls on the question of whether we do well in Iraq, most of them show huge percentages for Fair and Poor. Rasmussen does, for instance. This to me is not a military success, and not in the perception of the nation's people. So in my opinion, this one falls. Up to now I have been saying that it stood. And that swings my prediction to Kerry. But what about Afghanistan? Didn't we disperse Al Qaeda and overthrow the Taliban? Yes, but we have yet to capture Osama bin Laden. So that is not a success either. If he is captured between now and November 3, that will swing my prediction back to Bush.
But it still is not certain. To me, deciding whether the FMS or the STE keys fall or stand is a murky judgement call, and one that is subject to Monday morning quarterbacking. In other words, if Kerry wins, that means that FMS fell, but if Bush win, then it must have stood. With this in place, the keys become practically useless, and one can only depend on the polls, which are going to become more accurate every day. It still could go either way, but right now I am saying, based on six keys falling and on the polls, that Kerry will win, but I have low confidence in that.
What happens if Kerry wins? This country has a crisis coming up. Check out Fourth Turning and Oil Crisis for details. Also look at my Periodic Presidents, in the archives of this blog; later I will place them in a separate location. President Bush is a Nero President, analogous to Hoover and Buchanan. The next president in my Periodic Table would be the Crisis President, like Washington, Lincoln, and Franklin Roosevelt. These presidents are regiarded by historians as the best in US history, but that is only because they led the nation through crisis. Even a rather ordinary president can become great in crisis. Still a President needs a certain amount of the "right stuff" to become a Crisis President. Kerry demonstrated in the debates that he has that stuff. Bush has not. So if Kerry is elected, he will become one of the greatest Presidents in American history. If Bush is elected, his policies will be discredited, leading to a Democratic victory in 2008. I tried the keys on that assuming Bush wins and get something like 9-12 keys down for the Republicans. The winner of that election will be one of America's greatest.
Really, most of the states are settled and out of play. The only ones that aren't are the swing states, which in my opinion are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, and good old Florida. Most of these are "plastic peanuts", even moderate ones like Wisconsin. The election seems to be boiling down to the three giants among these states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Up to now, it seems that Pennsylvania has trended towards Kerry, Florida towards Bush, and Ohio right smack in the middle as possibly this year's decisive state. Now the polls indicate almost unanimity for a slim edge for Kerry in Pennsylvania, a bare trend towards Kerry in Ohio, and about as dead even as can be in Florida (not again!). This means that Kerry is slowly getting the advantage.
But wait - don't the Lichtman Keys to the White House show a trend towards Bush, instead? Up to now I have been saying that Bush will win because he has not lost enough of these 13 keys to lose the election. Up to recently, I would say that was the case. However, based on what I have seen recently, I am calling Key 11, Foreign and Military Success (FMS), fallen. This means that Bush has lost six keys, and that costs him the election. Therefore, I am now predicting, rather cautiously and nervously, that Kerry will win this election and send Bush back to Texas.
What are the Lichtman Keys? A few years ago, Prof Allan Lichtman published his book about 13 keys, or statements about the candidates and the country. These are the statements, along with my assessment of them.
1. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
Stands. This is a numerical fact, caused by the Republican sweep of 2002.
2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
Stands. No one dare run against him in the Republican nomination.
3. The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Stands. George W. Bush is the President.
4. There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Stands. No third party is coming anywhere near 5% of the vote, which is required to topple this key. They all are going to get about 1% or less, unless something dramatic happens.
5. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Falls. Up to about two months ago, I would say this one stands. But what matters are not figures, but how people feel about the economy. I don't think people feel good about the economy, as can be seen in such places as Ohio. So I called this one down about two months ago. By the way, Allan Lichtman disagrees with me on this, saying it still stands.
6. Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Falls. This was ensured by the Dot-Com bust of 2000 March.
7. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Falls. Some would argue that the Department of Homeland Security is a major change. But apparently this was just shuffling the blocks around. These blocks perform pretty much the same functions as before the creation of the Department. So Allan, and I, call this one down.
8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Stands. The anti-Iraq War protests were not enough to topple this key, which requires massive demonstrations and unrest comparable to 1968.
9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Stands. Several possibilities, but all have fizzled, including Abu Ghraib.
10. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Planeattack, or 9/11, was definitely a foreign and military failure.
12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Falls. Bush is not charismatic; he's quirky instead.
13. The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Stands. Kerry to me has a powerful, commanding voice, but not quite the style to create charisma
That's five keys down. Now the decider:
11. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Up to now we have all been saying that invading Iraq and Afghanistan are foreign or military successes. After all, we did kick out the Taliban, scattered Al Qaeda all over the place, killed Saddam's sons and captured Saddam. But that's only part of the story. Sure we captured Saddam, but at the cost of being stuck in a quagmire war where insurgents shoot at US troops every day. The country is slow in coming back, and its oil exports have actually decreased. But what seals this one is public opinion. If you look at the polls on the question of whether we do well in Iraq, most of them show huge percentages for Fair and Poor. Rasmussen does, for instance. This to me is not a military success, and not in the perception of the nation's people. So in my opinion, this one falls. Up to now I have been saying that it stood. And that swings my prediction to Kerry. But what about Afghanistan? Didn't we disperse Al Qaeda and overthrow the Taliban? Yes, but we have yet to capture Osama bin Laden. So that is not a success either. If he is captured between now and November 3, that will swing my prediction back to Bush.
But it still is not certain. To me, deciding whether the FMS or the STE keys fall or stand is a murky judgement call, and one that is subject to Monday morning quarterbacking. In other words, if Kerry wins, that means that FMS fell, but if Bush win, then it must have stood. With this in place, the keys become practically useless, and one can only depend on the polls, which are going to become more accurate every day. It still could go either way, but right now I am saying, based on six keys falling and on the polls, that Kerry will win, but I have low confidence in that.
What happens if Kerry wins? This country has a crisis coming up. Check out Fourth Turning and Oil Crisis for details. Also look at my Periodic Presidents, in the archives of this blog; later I will place them in a separate location. President Bush is a Nero President, analogous to Hoover and Buchanan. The next president in my Periodic Table would be the Crisis President, like Washington, Lincoln, and Franklin Roosevelt. These presidents are regiarded by historians as the best in US history, but that is only because they led the nation through crisis. Even a rather ordinary president can become great in crisis. Still a President needs a certain amount of the "right stuff" to become a Crisis President. Kerry demonstrated in the debates that he has that stuff. Bush has not. So if Kerry is elected, he will become one of the greatest Presidents in American history. If Bush is elected, his policies will be discredited, leading to a Democratic victory in 2008. I tried the keys on that assuming Bush wins and get something like 9-12 keys down for the Republicans. The winner of that election will be one of America's greatest.
