Monday, November 29, 2004
Bush's Victory Makes him Legitimate?
Despite the disproving of the vote fraud theory that my analysis in the previous blog has just demonstrated, there is the question as to whether Bush's victory makes him legitimate. In my opinion, Bush was not legitimately elected in 2000. All the states in 2000 were either irrelevant or were decided definitely in favor of Bush or Gore except Florida. The final count in Florida, Supreme Court approved, favored Bush by 537 votes. However, I feel that many African-Americans were prevented from voting, and that the ballot in Palm Beach County was improper. Correcting for that ballot makes Gore a slim but easy victor in Florida, and especially with Gore getting the popular vote, I think Gore should have been President in 2001 instead of Bush.
Now the 2004 election has occurred. Bush won by 3.5 million votes, and in the Electoral College, Bush just barely squeaked by with 286-252. If Florida or Ohio had gone Kerry, so would have the Presidency. However, the 2000 election was illegitimate; instead of facing Senator Kerry, Bush should have faced President Gore in this election. So if Gore had been President in 2001, would he have won the 2004 election against a repeat run of Bush? The keys seem to suggest no. Gore would have lost the Mandate Key (2002 elections), the Long-Term Economy Key, the Policy Key, the Foreign/Military Failure Key, the Foreign/Military Success Key, and the Incumbent Charisma Key. Many of these keys were those that Bush lost and were events over which the President would have had little control. I believe that Gore would have invaded Afghanistan but not Iraq. If so he would not have overcome Hussein nor would he have gotten stuck into a quagmire. So he would have lost the Foreign/Military Success Key. He would have lost the Failure key because of the 9/11 Attack (unless you are one of these conspiracy kooks who think the 9/11 Attack was set up to give Bush an opportunity to take over the oil lands of the Mideast). So Gore would have lost six keys, and Bush would have been elected.
But does this make Bush legitimate now? It seems to. However, there is some argument that if Gore had been President, the nation would have rallied around him after the 9/11 Attack and so the mid-term elections would have favored Democrats and so he would have had the Mandate key. Also, without Iraq's failures, and with Afghanistan's modest successes, maybe Gore would have taken the Foreign/Military Success key. It's hard to say if either of these would have happened. In any case, although it is a little shaky, I guess Bush has been legitimately elected.
Now the 2004 election has occurred. Bush won by 3.5 million votes, and in the Electoral College, Bush just barely squeaked by with 286-252. If Florida or Ohio had gone Kerry, so would have the Presidency. However, the 2000 election was illegitimate; instead of facing Senator Kerry, Bush should have faced President Gore in this election. So if Gore had been President in 2001, would he have won the 2004 election against a repeat run of Bush? The keys seem to suggest no. Gore would have lost the Mandate Key (2002 elections), the Long-Term Economy Key, the Policy Key, the Foreign/Military Failure Key, the Foreign/Military Success Key, and the Incumbent Charisma Key. Many of these keys were those that Bush lost and were events over which the President would have had little control. I believe that Gore would have invaded Afghanistan but not Iraq. If so he would not have overcome Hussein nor would he have gotten stuck into a quagmire. So he would have lost the Foreign/Military Success Key. He would have lost the Failure key because of the 9/11 Attack (unless you are one of these conspiracy kooks who think the 9/11 Attack was set up to give Bush an opportunity to take over the oil lands of the Mideast). So Gore would have lost six keys, and Bush would have been elected.
But does this make Bush legitimate now? It seems to. However, there is some argument that if Gore had been President, the nation would have rallied around him after the 9/11 Attack and so the mid-term elections would have favored Democrats and so he would have had the Mandate key. Also, without Iraq's failures, and with Afghanistan's modest successes, maybe Gore would have taken the Foreign/Military Success key. It's hard to say if either of these would have happened. In any case, although it is a little shaky, I guess Bush has been legitimately elected.
