Sunday, November 14, 2004
Some Reflections on the Election
The election is now over and we wonder what is going to happen now. I have not been able to blog in so long because of an overwhelming avalanche of activities, including watching the election results come in. Bush won the election, like I had predicted months ago, but not according to what I said just before the election.
My predictions were based on Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House, 13 statements such that the incumbent party wins if and only if five or less of the keys are false. In mid-2004, four of the keys had fallen (were false) and so I thought that Bush would win, even though Kerry was leading at the time. There were two wobbly keys throughout the campaign: Key 5, Short Term Economy, and Key 11, Foreign or Military Success. Late in the summer I still called for Bush's election. I had said that Key 5 had fallen because people don't feel like the economy was good, no matter what the numbers say. Then just before the election, I declared that Key 11 had fallen, because there was nothing good coming out of Iraq: it was a steady drip of more and more US soldiers being killed. This was enough for me to declare for Kerry. However, Allan still stuck to 4 keys, and a little later, I declared the entire key system worthless in this election because these two keys were so fuzzy. Bush won. So therefore, one of these held. I think it was the Short Term Economy key, since the economy started to improve at an accelerating rate in October, bolstered by a trend-bucking fall in oil prices. So the keys worked again.
So what does this mean about the future? According to my Periodic Presidents, which are based somewhat on Strauss and Howe's generations theories, Bush is a Nero president, analogous to Hoover and Buchanan. This means he does not see a crisis coming, and a Crisis President, as Lincoln or FDR, is elected after him. I pointed this out on the Fourth Turning discussion board, and got a reply that unlike Hoover or Buchanan, Bush is doing a lot of things: invading Afghanistan, establishing the Patriot Act and the Department of Homeland Security, invading Iraq, and striving to open up the Alaskan National Wilderness Reserve (ANWR) to oil drilling. But does this mean he is responding to the crisis? To me he doesn't. While Hoover and Buchanan did not do anything, Bush is doing a lot of things wrong. The crisis of the future is not terrorism. It is oil. Both candidates ignored this threat to our future in their campaigns. So Bush is a different type of Nero; perhaps he is a Hamlet instead, stabbing Polonius when the thing to do is to get rid of the corrupt King. Whether this is any worse remains to be seen. He will not be elected in 2008, so according to my pattern, who becomes President in 2009 will be the next Crisis president. I therefore expect the crisis to occur between now and 2008, then; probably in the form of an oil shock.
So who will be elected in 2008? What do the keys say?
1. Mandate. If the crisis comes before 2006, then the key falls otherwise it stands.
2. Challenge to Nomination. There are a lot of Republicans out there, and it is hard to tell now whether this one will stand or not.
3. Incumbency. Falls, as President Bush can't run again.
4. Third Party. Probably stands. Don't know of any now, and none performed well in 2004
5. Short Term Economy. see 6
6. Long Term Economy. Probably both will fall. Rising oil prices probably will bring on a recession. But if not, then they will stand, since these times have the 2000 stock market bust to compare with.
7. Policy. Bush has not produced new policy; apparently Allan Lichtman does not think that the Homeland Security Department is new policy. This one probably will fall.
8. Social Unrest. Probably will stand. It takes a major ruckus to upset this one.
9. Scandal. There are all sorts of scandal sparks flying around but it is hard for them to start a fire. This one probably will stand.
10. Foreign or Military Failure. This probably will fall, as Saddam is captured already. What's left in Iraq is this constant quagmire and continued deterioration of the situation.
11. Foreign or Military Success. This also will fall, since I don't see any magic successes coming up in the near future.
12. Incumbent Charisma. Depends on who's running. McCain and Schwarzenegger have charisma; the other main contenders do not.
13. Challenger Charisma. Depends on who's running. Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have charisma; the others don't.
Keys 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, and 11 will fall, then. This means a Democrat will be elected in 2008, and whoever is elected will be the next Lincoln or FDR in our history.
My predictions were based on Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House, 13 statements such that the incumbent party wins if and only if five or less of the keys are false. In mid-2004, four of the keys had fallen (were false) and so I thought that Bush would win, even though Kerry was leading at the time. There were two wobbly keys throughout the campaign: Key 5, Short Term Economy, and Key 11, Foreign or Military Success. Late in the summer I still called for Bush's election. I had said that Key 5 had fallen because people don't feel like the economy was good, no matter what the numbers say. Then just before the election, I declared that Key 11 had fallen, because there was nothing good coming out of Iraq: it was a steady drip of more and more US soldiers being killed. This was enough for me to declare for Kerry. However, Allan still stuck to 4 keys, and a little later, I declared the entire key system worthless in this election because these two keys were so fuzzy. Bush won. So therefore, one of these held. I think it was the Short Term Economy key, since the economy started to improve at an accelerating rate in October, bolstered by a trend-bucking fall in oil prices. So the keys worked again.
So what does this mean about the future? According to my Periodic Presidents, which are based somewhat on Strauss and Howe's generations theories, Bush is a Nero president, analogous to Hoover and Buchanan. This means he does not see a crisis coming, and a Crisis President, as Lincoln or FDR, is elected after him. I pointed this out on the Fourth Turning discussion board, and got a reply that unlike Hoover or Buchanan, Bush is doing a lot of things: invading Afghanistan, establishing the Patriot Act and the Department of Homeland Security, invading Iraq, and striving to open up the Alaskan National Wilderness Reserve (ANWR) to oil drilling. But does this mean he is responding to the crisis? To me he doesn't. While Hoover and Buchanan did not do anything, Bush is doing a lot of things wrong. The crisis of the future is not terrorism. It is oil. Both candidates ignored this threat to our future in their campaigns. So Bush is a different type of Nero; perhaps he is a Hamlet instead, stabbing Polonius when the thing to do is to get rid of the corrupt King. Whether this is any worse remains to be seen. He will not be elected in 2008, so according to my pattern, who becomes President in 2009 will be the next Crisis president. I therefore expect the crisis to occur between now and 2008, then; probably in the form of an oil shock.
So who will be elected in 2008? What do the keys say?
1. Mandate. If the crisis comes before 2006, then the key falls otherwise it stands.
2. Challenge to Nomination. There are a lot of Republicans out there, and it is hard to tell now whether this one will stand or not.
3. Incumbency. Falls, as President Bush can't run again.
4. Third Party. Probably stands. Don't know of any now, and none performed well in 2004
5. Short Term Economy. see 6
6. Long Term Economy. Probably both will fall. Rising oil prices probably will bring on a recession. But if not, then they will stand, since these times have the 2000 stock market bust to compare with.
7. Policy. Bush has not produced new policy; apparently Allan Lichtman does not think that the Homeland Security Department is new policy. This one probably will fall.
8. Social Unrest. Probably will stand. It takes a major ruckus to upset this one.
9. Scandal. There are all sorts of scandal sparks flying around but it is hard for them to start a fire. This one probably will stand.
10. Foreign or Military Failure. This probably will fall, as Saddam is captured already. What's left in Iraq is this constant quagmire and continued deterioration of the situation.
11. Foreign or Military Success. This also will fall, since I don't see any magic successes coming up in the near future.
12. Incumbent Charisma. Depends on who's running. McCain and Schwarzenegger have charisma; the other main contenders do not.
13. Challenger Charisma. Depends on who's running. Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have charisma; the others don't.
Keys 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, and 11 will fall, then. This means a Democrat will be elected in 2008, and whoever is elected will be the next Lincoln or FDR in our history.
