Saturday, November 20, 2004
Voting this year
A little later I will voice my opinion on these charges of vote fraud that have been spreading around on blogs like this one. My opinion so far is that there probably was none but the chance of it can't be ruled out.
I would like to note what happened on Election Day itself, 2004 November 2. First of all the line was really long, going outside the school where the polling place was. It took me 46 minutes to get through this; in a normal year, it takes only about 5 minutes. I thought it was important for everyone to vote, however, and I thought this was a good sign - good turnout favors Kerry.
Sample ballots were handed out. Of course the Democrat's sample ballots say vote for all the Democrats; the Republican ones say vote for all the Republicans. But they agreed on the two questions and five bond referendums on the Chesterfield, Virginia ballot. Vote "Yes" on all of them. The one irregularity I saw was on the Republican sample ballot, for U.S. House Representative. The Democratic candidate was Jonathan R. Menefee. The Republican ballot said it was "Jonathan R. Menace". Sounds like childish namecalling to me. But I never reported it - did not have the time.
The exit polls seemed to indicate an easy victory for Kerry. There were a few hang-ups, such as the fact that one of these was 59% women. Women tend to vote Democratic. When the results came in, they indicate all the usual obviousnesses, namely Indiana for Bush, Vermont for Kerry and so forth, although the 60-39 margin for Bush in Indiana did concern me a bit. But what startled me later that night was CNN's reporting that all of Florida's central counties were going for Bush, and furthermore, they were going for Bush more than they were in 2000. So I checked all the states out and found the vote going pretty much as in 2000 or more in Bush's favor. When southern Florida came through, it was for Kerry but only by the same amount as for Gore in 2000. That told me that Bush was wining Florida. It finally boiled down to Ohio, the very last pertinent state to be decided. Bush won it by 3 points and also the Presidency. Further, although New York and New Jersey went for Kerry, there were huge Bush gains in these two large states (as well as in California). These gains in huge states caused the fairly large popular plurality for Bush, 3.5 million votes. If it had been slightly more for Kerry, Kerry would have won the Electoral College while Bush still would have taken the popular vote, a result the reverse of 2000.
This is what brings up these voter fraud charges. Why were the exit polls wrong? They are independent of voting machines. Did the machines win it for Bush? I will comment on this later.
I would like to note what happened on Election Day itself, 2004 November 2. First of all the line was really long, going outside the school where the polling place was. It took me 46 minutes to get through this; in a normal year, it takes only about 5 minutes. I thought it was important for everyone to vote, however, and I thought this was a good sign - good turnout favors Kerry.
Sample ballots were handed out. Of course the Democrat's sample ballots say vote for all the Democrats; the Republican ones say vote for all the Republicans. But they agreed on the two questions and five bond referendums on the Chesterfield, Virginia ballot. Vote "Yes" on all of them. The one irregularity I saw was on the Republican sample ballot, for U.S. House Representative. The Democratic candidate was Jonathan R. Menefee. The Republican ballot said it was "Jonathan R. Menace". Sounds like childish namecalling to me. But I never reported it - did not have the time.
The exit polls seemed to indicate an easy victory for Kerry. There were a few hang-ups, such as the fact that one of these was 59% women. Women tend to vote Democratic. When the results came in, they indicate all the usual obviousnesses, namely Indiana for Bush, Vermont for Kerry and so forth, although the 60-39 margin for Bush in Indiana did concern me a bit. But what startled me later that night was CNN's reporting that all of Florida's central counties were going for Bush, and furthermore, they were going for Bush more than they were in 2000. So I checked all the states out and found the vote going pretty much as in 2000 or more in Bush's favor. When southern Florida came through, it was for Kerry but only by the same amount as for Gore in 2000. That told me that Bush was wining Florida. It finally boiled down to Ohio, the very last pertinent state to be decided. Bush won it by 3 points and also the Presidency. Further, although New York and New Jersey went for Kerry, there were huge Bush gains in these two large states (as well as in California). These gains in huge states caused the fairly large popular plurality for Bush, 3.5 million votes. If it had been slightly more for Kerry, Kerry would have won the Electoral College while Bush still would have taken the popular vote, a result the reverse of 2000.
This is what brings up these voter fraud charges. Why were the exit polls wrong? They are independent of voting machines. Did the machines win it for Bush? I will comment on this later.
