Monday, January 24, 2005
The Great Double-Zero Decade Oil Party
Before Gulf War II began, I felt that one of the results of the war would be the liberating of billions of barrels of Iraqi crude onto the world, and I expected that to cause a period of considerable prosperity, which I was going to call the Great Double-Zero Decade Oil Party. However, when the invasion occurred and Iraqi insurgents continued to hit US forces and the pipelines, I thought for sure that this was not going to happen. Iraqi output would be slowed or stopped by insurgent attacks on the pipelines. These attacks do occur, and for a while, with rapidly rising crude and petrol prices, I thought for sure that the party would not occur.
However, the price of crude dipped last year, and this morning, I found out from no less an authority than Richard Deffeyes, the geologist who had been predicting peak oil on 2005 November 24, that Iraqi output doubled in 2004. Here it is, folks. It took a while to do it, but the Great Double-Zero Decade Oil Party has begun. Many people have been expecting a good year for 2005, and probably 2006, because many giant oil projects start in these two years. To me this is further evidence that times are going to be good the next few years as far as oil is concerned. So continue celebrating? That is just not what we want. We should be using these good years to conserve and prepare for the bad.
There is plenty of oil for 2005, 2006, and 2007. However, only three projects come online in 2008, and none in 2009, because no major discoveries occurred in 2003. So the day of reckoning is set for some time in 2008, before the presidential election that year. The resulting shortages and repercussions will affect that election as people realize that the party is over.
I urge people to conserve, find new technologies, and otherwise prepare for the peak in 2008.
However, the price of crude dipped last year, and this morning, I found out from no less an authority than Richard Deffeyes, the geologist who had been predicting peak oil on 2005 November 24, that Iraqi output doubled in 2004. Here it is, folks. It took a while to do it, but the Great Double-Zero Decade Oil Party has begun. Many people have been expecting a good year for 2005, and probably 2006, because many giant oil projects start in these two years. To me this is further evidence that times are going to be good the next few years as far as oil is concerned. So continue celebrating? That is just not what we want. We should be using these good years to conserve and prepare for the bad.
There is plenty of oil for 2005, 2006, and 2007. However, only three projects come online in 2008, and none in 2009, because no major discoveries occurred in 2003. So the day of reckoning is set for some time in 2008, before the presidential election that year. The resulting shortages and repercussions will affect that election as people realize that the party is over.
I urge people to conserve, find new technologies, and otherwise prepare for the peak in 2008.
