Sunday, February 19, 2006
Keys to the White House 2008
On this Presidents' Day of 2006, how does the Presidential race for 2008 look? It depends on oil and this year's midterm elections. Allen Lichtman, a professor of history at American University, has written a book The Keys to the White House, in which he states 13 keys (statements) such that if 6 or more are false (the keys fall), the challenging party wins else the incumbent party wins.
At the present time, in my opinion, these 5 keys are likely to stand and favor the incumbent Republican party:
2. Nomination Contest. There are lots of candidates out there, and the race for the Republican presidential nomination will no doubt be initially a free-for-all. But recent evidence (Democrats in 1988, 1992, and 2004) seems to show that one candidate, who we don't know as yet, will eventually pull out way in front of the others.
4. Third Party Candidate. Is there a third party around? I don't see any.
8. Social Unrest. I don't see much of a chance of this happening unless peak oil gets really bad.
9. Scandal. Lots of sparks but no conflagration. So far the President has not been implicated, and only sporadic minor officials here and there have gotten into serious legal trouble.
13. Challenger Charisma/Hero. If the Democratic candidate has charisma, he or she is unknown to me now. Ms. Clinton is kowtowing as much to the "center" (really the hypermedia) as Kerry did in 2004. Barak Obama shows some promise, but first of all we are going to have to learn about him.
These keys are likely to fall, favoring the Democratic candidate:
3. Incumbency. Bush can't run again. Please don't impeach Bush. That will put an incumbent in office and give the Republicans a key.
7. Policy Change. What has Bush done, except make departments that make messes out of hurricane disasters?
10. Foreign or Military Failure. Another day, another soldier dies in Iraq. This is a failure. Insurgents and fighting factions keep us tied down to a quagmire. Bush has had his success for this in 2004. Now it is a failure.
11. Foreign or Military Success. With all of his troops tied down in Iraq, how can Bush make a success elsewhere? Most likely, he will do nothing in the foreign arena; if he tries something, he is likely to fail and make a mess of things.
12. Incumbent Charisma/Hero. John McCain may have been imprisoned for 5 years in a POW camp, but he has nowhere the stature of Grant or Eisenhower in getting this nation out of a crisis. Arnold Schwarzenegger is charismatic, but he can't run for President. No other Republican around seems to have charisma.
That leaves these three keys:
1. Mandate. All the Democrats need is a 4 seat gain to fell this key. I am not sure how likely that is to happen. Some say it will happen, but elections are unpredictable. I want to wait until later this year before declaring this key down.
5. Long Term Economy. The economy is going great now. Sooner or later, the running out of cheap oil is going to sour it. Will this happen by 2008? The ASPO say this is the year that Peak Oil will happen. If it does, this key will fall, else it will stand.
6. Short Term Economy. Same story as with Key 5. If peak oil causes a recession in 2008, this key will fall, else it will stand.
Keys 5 and 6 will fall if peak oil occurs before spring 2008, and will stand otherwise. Therefore, if the Democrats gain at least 4 seats in the House (the Senate doesn't matter), then they will win the Presidency in 2008; else if Peak Oil arrives before 2008 March, then the Democrats will win else the Republicans will win.
My guess is that Peak Oil's gasoline lines and crises will strike sometime in 2008, so I think the Democrats will win.
At the present time, in my opinion, these 5 keys are likely to stand and favor the incumbent Republican party:
2. Nomination Contest. There are lots of candidates out there, and the race for the Republican presidential nomination will no doubt be initially a free-for-all. But recent evidence (Democrats in 1988, 1992, and 2004) seems to show that one candidate, who we don't know as yet, will eventually pull out way in front of the others.
4. Third Party Candidate. Is there a third party around? I don't see any.
8. Social Unrest. I don't see much of a chance of this happening unless peak oil gets really bad.
9. Scandal. Lots of sparks but no conflagration. So far the President has not been implicated, and only sporadic minor officials here and there have gotten into serious legal trouble.
13. Challenger Charisma/Hero. If the Democratic candidate has charisma, he or she is unknown to me now. Ms. Clinton is kowtowing as much to the "center" (really the hypermedia) as Kerry did in 2004. Barak Obama shows some promise, but first of all we are going to have to learn about him.
These keys are likely to fall, favoring the Democratic candidate:
3. Incumbency. Bush can't run again. Please don't impeach Bush. That will put an incumbent in office and give the Republicans a key.
7. Policy Change. What has Bush done, except make departments that make messes out of hurricane disasters?
10. Foreign or Military Failure. Another day, another soldier dies in Iraq. This is a failure. Insurgents and fighting factions keep us tied down to a quagmire. Bush has had his success for this in 2004. Now it is a failure.
11. Foreign or Military Success. With all of his troops tied down in Iraq, how can Bush make a success elsewhere? Most likely, he will do nothing in the foreign arena; if he tries something, he is likely to fail and make a mess of things.
12. Incumbent Charisma/Hero. John McCain may have been imprisoned for 5 years in a POW camp, but he has nowhere the stature of Grant or Eisenhower in getting this nation out of a crisis. Arnold Schwarzenegger is charismatic, but he can't run for President. No other Republican around seems to have charisma.
That leaves these three keys:
1. Mandate. All the Democrats need is a 4 seat gain to fell this key. I am not sure how likely that is to happen. Some say it will happen, but elections are unpredictable. I want to wait until later this year before declaring this key down.
5. Long Term Economy. The economy is going great now. Sooner or later, the running out of cheap oil is going to sour it. Will this happen by 2008? The ASPO say this is the year that Peak Oil will happen. If it does, this key will fall, else it will stand.
6. Short Term Economy. Same story as with Key 5. If peak oil causes a recession in 2008, this key will fall, else it will stand.
Keys 5 and 6 will fall if peak oil occurs before spring 2008, and will stand otherwise. Therefore, if the Democrats gain at least 4 seats in the House (the Senate doesn't matter), then they will win the Presidency in 2008; else if Peak Oil arrives before 2008 March, then the Democrats will win else the Republicans will win.
My guess is that Peak Oil's gasoline lines and crises will strike sometime in 2008, so I think the Democrats will win.
