Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Bloomberg Leaves the GOP
Today I heard that Mike Bloomberg has quit the Republican party. This is an interesting development, considering that he may run in 2008. In an earlier blog, I said that Bloomberg was going to enter as an independent, causing Lichtman Key 4, Third Party candidates, to fall and ensuring that the Democrat will be elected. This looks like a first step towards such a candidacy.
He did not fit the Republican image anyway. He runs in whatever party will cause him to win. He was a Democrat for a number of years, but then he switched to Republican in 2001 because he found the cast of candidates to be nearly empty then. Is that so unusual? Suppose no Republican candidates had come up for the 2008 Presidential election. I think some of the Democrats would think of switching to Republican to win. In fact there may be a big rush to the Republican side by the Democrats.
This means that his current run may be associated with winning as well. He certainly has the money for it, what with his Bloomberg report and all. He said he would devote $500 million to his campaign, a pittance compared to the Billions that he possesses. I heard at the end of the NBC broadcast tonight that Bloomberg was going to enter only if he could win. He did not want to be a spoiler for the other candidates like Perot was in 1992. And in fact, he is going to wait until early next year when the contenders have decided before deciding whether to run. He says the Republicans are going righter and righter and the Democrats are going lefter and lefter. Now that is interesting. It reminds me of one of my high school or college political science teachers who diagrammed a pair of candidates, one way off on the right and one way off on the left, and he said in that case he will run and win.
That means that my prediction from the other blog may not work. If Bloomberg does not run as an independent, then Key 4 probably will stand. If the election is between Kucinich and Brownback, I suppose that's when Mike Bloomberg would enter the race. But what if its Clinton vs Giuliani? Maybe he wouldn't enter in that case, with Giuliani's pro-choice stand and Clinton's appeal to women, whatever their party affiliation. But people can deceive themselves, and events can change. Perot led both Clinton and George HW Bush in the polls for a while in early 1992 before Clinton surged into the lead. If Bloomberg leads then, he may be tempted to win in a race that he can't win. IN that case, he certainly will get 5% of the vote, and Key 4 will fall. But if he does not enter, Key 4 will stand. And what if Bloomberg does run against a polarized pair of major candidates? Well maybe the entire Lichtman Key system will go out the window. Perhaps in that case, with a huge opening in the middle, Bloomberg may sail right in and win the election, the first ever for a third party candidate.
He did not fit the Republican image anyway. He runs in whatever party will cause him to win. He was a Democrat for a number of years, but then he switched to Republican in 2001 because he found the cast of candidates to be nearly empty then. Is that so unusual? Suppose no Republican candidates had come up for the 2008 Presidential election. I think some of the Democrats would think of switching to Republican to win. In fact there may be a big rush to the Republican side by the Democrats.
This means that his current run may be associated with winning as well. He certainly has the money for it, what with his Bloomberg report and all. He said he would devote $500 million to his campaign, a pittance compared to the Billions that he possesses. I heard at the end of the NBC broadcast tonight that Bloomberg was going to enter only if he could win. He did not want to be a spoiler for the other candidates like Perot was in 1992. And in fact, he is going to wait until early next year when the contenders have decided before deciding whether to run. He says the Republicans are going righter and righter and the Democrats are going lefter and lefter. Now that is interesting. It reminds me of one of my high school or college political science teachers who diagrammed a pair of candidates, one way off on the right and one way off on the left, and he said in that case he will run and win.
That means that my prediction from the other blog may not work. If Bloomberg does not run as an independent, then Key 4 probably will stand. If the election is between Kucinich and Brownback, I suppose that's when Mike Bloomberg would enter the race. But what if its Clinton vs Giuliani? Maybe he wouldn't enter in that case, with Giuliani's pro-choice stand and Clinton's appeal to women, whatever their party affiliation. But people can deceive themselves, and events can change. Perot led both Clinton and George HW Bush in the polls for a while in early 1992 before Clinton surged into the lead. If Bloomberg leads then, he may be tempted to win in a race that he can't win. IN that case, he certainly will get 5% of the vote, and Key 4 will fall. But if he does not enter, Key 4 will stand. And what if Bloomberg does run against a polarized pair of major candidates? Well maybe the entire Lichtman Key system will go out the window. Perhaps in that case, with a huge opening in the middle, Bloomberg may sail right in and win the election, the first ever for a third party candidate.
