Tuesday, January 01, 2008
2008 President Election like 1860?
For some time I have been noticing the similarities between Barack Obama and Abraham Lincoln. Both were senators from Illinois, and both are relatively inexperienced. But today Jim Kunstler said something that really brings shades of Lincoln and 1860 on us. Remember now that 1860 saw the beginning of one of the Fourth Turnings of our country: the Civil War. It was a time of crisis. One of Lincoln's generals said that "War is Hell". Of the President next year he says "Whoever ends up in the oval office will preside over one king-hell of a clusterfuck." Sound similar?
But it is one of Jim Kunstler's other quotes that got me thinking. He says in his 2007 December 31 blog:
I write this a few days before the Iowa caucuses and then the New Hampshire primary. New York's Mayor Bloomberg is suddenly making noises again about entering the race as an independent. That might lead to a situation as fractured as the one in 1860 that saw a multi-party scuffle send Lincoln into office
Could the 2008 election resemble the 1860 election? What if Obama wins the Democratic nomination and, say, Romney wins for the Republicans, causing Paul to run as an independent. Suppose Michael Bloomberg also runs as an independent. Then you have a four-way pileup similar to 1860's. Here would be the comparison:
Obama: Lincoln
Romney: Breckinridge
Bloomberg: Bell
Paul: Douglas
Paul as Stephen Douglas does not seem similar, as Paul is a rabble-rousing independent, while Douglas worked in the system as a Democrat. How about this instead:
Obama: Lincoln
Romney: Douglas
Huckabee: Breckenridge
Bloomberg: Bell
If so, then Obama will win easily, maybe even taking Idaho where the Republicans would be split between Romney and Huckabee. It will indeed look like 1860. Then if the 1860 scenario were followed, Huckabee's followers (that is, the Radical Religious Right) would rebel and declare independence from Washington. This would lead to Obama calling out the troops to quell insurrections all over the place. The Civil War was between two well-divided sides by the Mason Dixon line. This conflict, on the other hand, would be a sinuous fractal, where the enemy is everywhere. It would be the Fractal War. Throw in the problems of Peak Oil, retirement of baby boomers, and the mortgage and credit crisis, and this country becomes unlivable fast.
Let's hope Obama's Presidency (if he's the one) does not follow this plot.
But it is one of Jim Kunstler's other quotes that got me thinking. He says in his 2007 December 31 blog:
I write this a few days before the Iowa caucuses and then the New Hampshire primary. New York's Mayor Bloomberg is suddenly making noises again about entering the race as an independent. That might lead to a situation as fractured as the one in 1860 that saw a multi-party scuffle send Lincoln into office
Could the 2008 election resemble the 1860 election? What if Obama wins the Democratic nomination and, say, Romney wins for the Republicans, causing Paul to run as an independent. Suppose Michael Bloomberg also runs as an independent. Then you have a four-way pileup similar to 1860's. Here would be the comparison:
Obama: Lincoln
Romney: Breckinridge
Bloomberg: Bell
Paul: Douglas
Paul as Stephen Douglas does not seem similar, as Paul is a rabble-rousing independent, while Douglas worked in the system as a Democrat. How about this instead:
Obama: Lincoln
Romney: Douglas
Huckabee: Breckenridge
Bloomberg: Bell
If so, then Obama will win easily, maybe even taking Idaho where the Republicans would be split between Romney and Huckabee. It will indeed look like 1860. Then if the 1860 scenario were followed, Huckabee's followers (that is, the Radical Religious Right) would rebel and declare independence from Washington. This would lead to Obama calling out the troops to quell insurrections all over the place. The Civil War was between two well-divided sides by the Mason Dixon line. This conflict, on the other hand, would be a sinuous fractal, where the enemy is everywhere. It would be the Fractal War. Throw in the problems of Peak Oil, retirement of baby boomers, and the mortgage and credit crisis, and this country becomes unlivable fast.
Let's hope Obama's Presidency (if he's the one) does not follow this plot.
Comments:
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The only reason why I am letting this get published is to emphatically inform people that Obama is NOT a Muslim, and he never has been one. This is information that has to get to everyone in this country for there are people out in the dark that somehow think that his name means that he is Muslim. Besides, if he were Muslim, wouldn't it be bigotry to reject Obama because of that?
Also I take note now that I now believe 2008's election to be like 1960, not 1860. This is because the pattern of Lichtman keys for 2008 is identical to that for 1960, and because we have similar problems in both elections: religion in 1960 and race in 2008.
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Also I take note now that I now believe 2008's election to be like 1960, not 1860. This is because the pattern of Lichtman keys for 2008 is identical to that for 1960, and because we have similar problems in both elections: religion in 1960 and race in 2008.
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