Wednesday, January 02, 2008
It looks like Obama in Iowa
The campaign for the early primaries for the 2008 Presidential election nominations is nearing an end, and it looks like a photo finish for the Democrats. A recent poll had Edwards 24, Obama, 23, and Clinton 22. Other polls show Edwards in a good position. Right now the poll is Clinton 34, Obama 31, and Edwards 17, with other candidates and other responses totaling 19 percent. This suggests that Edwards has slipped a bit, and seems to favor Clinton.
But this is a caucus, not a primary or election. This means a group of people get together and agree on a candidate, or in some cases, a slate of candidates with numbers attached. In these caucuses, the people favoring lesser candidates like Kucinich and Biden are urged to switch to one of the candidates who has more votes. This means that if Kucinich, Biden, and other supporters have Edwards as a second choice, he may have a chance. In fact, I have heard two statements in the media that question a Clinton outcome. One says that almost no one has Clinton for a second choice. She is a polarizing candidate, apparently. Another one says that almost all of the lesser candidates' (and Obama) supporters have Edwards as a second choice. Indeed, an article in the Southern Political Support says that Edwards has the advantage. It cites a report by the Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research which says the current tally is Edwards, 41, Clinton, 34, Obama 25. This organization correctly predicted in 2004 that John Kerry would win Iowa's caucuses, even though Howard Dean had a huge, although dwindling, lead.
How did they do it? They attempt to mimic the caucus proceedings. They record second choices. This is something that should give wow to you. Edwards, 61, Clinton, 21, Obama, 17. Edwards is the second choice of a lot of people. They then take the support for all those candidates getting less than 15% and undecideds and allocate them based on second choices. The result is as I stated above, with Edwards easily winning.
Now I notice this morning that Edwards is trailing badly. I tried working out this scheme this morning. 19 percent are for other candidates or for something else. I split them between Obama and Edwards. The result was Obama 38, Clinton 34, Edwards 25. An Obama victory. If one believes a comment that all of the second place preferences are for Edwards, then Edwards has 17+19 or 36 percent of the vote, to 34 for Clinton and 30 for Obama. A real horse race, with Edwards barely winning.
To me, however, it looks like an Obama victory. By the way, here are my preferences right now:
Kucinich
Edwards
Obama
Biden
Dodd
Richardson
Gravel
Clinton
So it looks like a three-way cliffhanger for the Democrats. The Republican race instead reminds me of a three-ring circus. Call it an eight-ring circus, as there are eight candidates. First it's Giuliani and McCain for the top spot. The dark horse Fred Thompson comes in and fizzles. Romney then gets into a religious spat with the other candidates. Huckabee all of a sudden rises in the polls, with the result being a ding-dog knock-down fight between Huckabee and Romney. Huckabee leads in Iowa right now, but now McCain is gaining in New Hampshire. If this keeps up, the Republicans will agree on no one, and Lichtman Key 2 will fall, virtually guaranteeing a Democratic victory.
And in any case, the Republicans are having a beauty contest in Iowa, while the Democrats could be selecting one of the greatest leaders the world has known. This is because the Lichtman keys suggest a Democratic victory, and there are several reasons, including peak oil, retirement of baby boomers, and the Fourth Turning, which say that the world could be headed for a crisis.
But this is a caucus, not a primary or election. This means a group of people get together and agree on a candidate, or in some cases, a slate of candidates with numbers attached. In these caucuses, the people favoring lesser candidates like Kucinich and Biden are urged to switch to one of the candidates who has more votes. This means that if Kucinich, Biden, and other supporters have Edwards as a second choice, he may have a chance. In fact, I have heard two statements in the media that question a Clinton outcome. One says that almost no one has Clinton for a second choice. She is a polarizing candidate, apparently. Another one says that almost all of the lesser candidates' (and Obama) supporters have Edwards as a second choice. Indeed, an article in the Southern Political Support says that Edwards has the advantage. It cites a report by the Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research which says the current tally is Edwards, 41, Clinton, 34, Obama 25. This organization correctly predicted in 2004 that John Kerry would win Iowa's caucuses, even though Howard Dean had a huge, although dwindling, lead.
How did they do it? They attempt to mimic the caucus proceedings. They record second choices. This is something that should give wow to you. Edwards, 61, Clinton, 21, Obama, 17. Edwards is the second choice of a lot of people. They then take the support for all those candidates getting less than 15% and undecideds and allocate them based on second choices. The result is as I stated above, with Edwards easily winning.
Now I notice this morning that Edwards is trailing badly. I tried working out this scheme this morning. 19 percent are for other candidates or for something else. I split them between Obama and Edwards. The result was Obama 38, Clinton 34, Edwards 25. An Obama victory. If one believes a comment that all of the second place preferences are for Edwards, then Edwards has 17+19 or 36 percent of the vote, to 34 for Clinton and 30 for Obama. A real horse race, with Edwards barely winning.
To me, however, it looks like an Obama victory. By the way, here are my preferences right now:
Kucinich
Edwards
Obama
Biden
Dodd
Richardson
Gravel
Clinton
So it looks like a three-way cliffhanger for the Democrats. The Republican race instead reminds me of a three-ring circus. Call it an eight-ring circus, as there are eight candidates. First it's Giuliani and McCain for the top spot. The dark horse Fred Thompson comes in and fizzles. Romney then gets into a religious spat with the other candidates. Huckabee all of a sudden rises in the polls, with the result being a ding-dog knock-down fight between Huckabee and Romney. Huckabee leads in Iowa right now, but now McCain is gaining in New Hampshire. If this keeps up, the Republicans will agree on no one, and Lichtman Key 2 will fall, virtually guaranteeing a Democratic victory.
And in any case, the Republicans are having a beauty contest in Iowa, while the Democrats could be selecting one of the greatest leaders the world has known. This is because the Lichtman keys suggest a Democratic victory, and there are several reasons, including peak oil, retirement of baby boomers, and the Fourth Turning, which say that the world could be headed for a crisis.
