Tuesday, February 05, 2008
A Nailbiter Night
11 pm update. The Big One, California, has come in. CNN says it is competitive in both parties. However, the exit polls say that Clinton has won California by 50-44, with 4% going to Edwards. The Republican race is not going to be settled until the end of the week, and there may be recounts, especially if it is winner-takes-all. Right now, it is McCain 37.6%, Romney 36.8%, Huckabee 11%, Giuliani 5%, and Paul 6%. I am now hearing that California has a complicated formula and is not winner-take-all. So it might not matter anyhow. California is a tie, and both McCain and Romney will pull about the same number of delegates from it.
That's enough for tonight. Alaska, a small state, comes in during the wee hours of the morning.
Based on what I have seen so far, McCain may pull out ahead. If he clinches the nomination before the sum of all the non-McCain votes (candidates and stuff like uncommitted) exceeds 1/3 of the vote, then Lichtman Key 2 will stand, otherwise it will fall. This is the most important key, so it bears watching in the months ahead.
10 pm update. Not much to report, because the states are small, and because CNN isn't giving exit polls. They are giving the ones for Utah. CNN said Romney won it. Boy did he ever. 90%, to single digits for the other candidates. The interesting thing about Utah is the Democrats. It looks like Obama has this one. Spreadsheet analysis of the exit poll shows Obama with 44% and Clinton with 37%. In general Obama is doing well in western conservative or "red" states and in the South, while Clinton does well in the Northeast, although I think that Connecticut will go to Obama. Also, although I can't get exit polls, the actual results seem to suggest a Romney win in Montana, and a huge Obama win in Idaho.
There are only two states left tonight, but one of them is The Big One, California. Will the late Obama surge carry him to victory there?
9 pm Update. CNN called New York for Clinton, but the election there is closer than one would have imagined, 56-41. They called no Republican races at 9 pm. But from what I see from the exit polls, McCain has taken Arizona with 42%, with 36% for Romney, 8% for Huckabee, 5% for Paul, and 2% for Giuliani. It's home state vs Mormonism there. Obama is ahead in Arizona in a close race, 47-45. Also, McCain took New York with 47%, to 34% for Romney, 11% fopr Huckabee, 6% for Paul, 3% for Giuliani, and 2% uncommitted. New Mexico has only a Democratic caucus, and exit polls there show a cliffhanger, with Clinton leading 40%-39% over Obama with 4% for Richardson, 1% for Edwards, and 1% uncommitted. I saw no exit polls for Colorado, Kansas, or Minnesota.
It looks like a cliffhanger tonight in both parties. There are a lot of close elections. CNN has called Connecticut and New Jersey for McCain, and Romney for Massachusetets. I think that Huckabee will win Alabama and Tennessee and McCain will win Oklahoma. For the Democrats, CNN called for Obama in Illinois and for Clinton in Oklahoma. I think that Clinton will also win Missouri and that Obama will win Alabama and Delaware. Here are the figures I get
Democrats (Clinton, Obama)
Alabama, 42, 53
Connecticut, 45, 49
Delaware, 44, 48
Georgia, 52, 27
Massachusetts, 45, 46
Missouri, 43,39
New Jersey, 49, 48
Tennessee, 52, 40
Republicans (Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Paul)
Alabama, 43, 18, 33, 4,1
Connecticut, 7,31,44,4,1
Missouri, 23,29,28,4,1
Oklahoma, 28,20,32,4
Tennessee, 32, 23, 30, 5,3
I have omitted minor candidates, unpledged, and uncommitted, but I think these are a factor in Clinton's win in Missouri. I have also omitted results in most races that CNN called.
That's enough for tonight. Alaska, a small state, comes in during the wee hours of the morning.
Based on what I have seen so far, McCain may pull out ahead. If he clinches the nomination before the sum of all the non-McCain votes (candidates and stuff like uncommitted) exceeds 1/3 of the vote, then Lichtman Key 2 will stand, otherwise it will fall. This is the most important key, so it bears watching in the months ahead.
10 pm update. Not much to report, because the states are small, and because CNN isn't giving exit polls. They are giving the ones for Utah. CNN said Romney won it. Boy did he ever. 90%, to single digits for the other candidates. The interesting thing about Utah is the Democrats. It looks like Obama has this one. Spreadsheet analysis of the exit poll shows Obama with 44% and Clinton with 37%. In general Obama is doing well in western conservative or "red" states and in the South, while Clinton does well in the Northeast, although I think that Connecticut will go to Obama. Also, although I can't get exit polls, the actual results seem to suggest a Romney win in Montana, and a huge Obama win in Idaho.
There are only two states left tonight, but one of them is The Big One, California. Will the late Obama surge carry him to victory there?
9 pm Update. CNN called New York for Clinton, but the election there is closer than one would have imagined, 56-41. They called no Republican races at 9 pm. But from what I see from the exit polls, McCain has taken Arizona with 42%, with 36% for Romney, 8% for Huckabee, 5% for Paul, and 2% for Giuliani. It's home state vs Mormonism there. Obama is ahead in Arizona in a close race, 47-45. Also, McCain took New York with 47%, to 34% for Romney, 11% fopr Huckabee, 6% for Paul, 3% for Giuliani, and 2% uncommitted. New Mexico has only a Democratic caucus, and exit polls there show a cliffhanger, with Clinton leading 40%-39% over Obama with 4% for Richardson, 1% for Edwards, and 1% uncommitted. I saw no exit polls for Colorado, Kansas, or Minnesota.
It looks like a cliffhanger tonight in both parties. There are a lot of close elections. CNN has called Connecticut and New Jersey for McCain, and Romney for Massachusetets. I think that Huckabee will win Alabama and Tennessee and McCain will win Oklahoma. For the Democrats, CNN called for Obama in Illinois and for Clinton in Oklahoma. I think that Clinton will also win Missouri and that Obama will win Alabama and Delaware. Here are the figures I get
Democrats (Clinton, Obama)
Alabama, 42, 53
Connecticut, 45, 49
Delaware, 44, 48
Georgia, 52, 27
Massachusetts, 45, 46
Missouri, 43,39
New Jersey, 49, 48
Tennessee, 52, 40
Republicans (Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Paul)
Alabama, 43, 18, 33, 4,1
Connecticut, 7,31,44,4,1
Missouri, 23,29,28,4,1
Oklahoma, 28,20,32,4
Tennessee, 32, 23, 30, 5,3
I have omitted minor candidates, unpledged, and uncommitted, but I think these are a factor in Clinton's win in Missouri. I have also omitted results in most races that CNN called.
