Saturday, March 22, 2008
Democratic Fighting Doesn't Matter
As of late the news broadcasters have been saying that Clinton and Obama have been damaging themselves by bickering and fighting with each other, bringing in a whole slew of things and people into it, such as monsters, passports, damnation, 9/11, heavenly choirs, Samantha Power, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, former VP candidate Geraldine Ferraro and others. Now ABC reports tonight (2008 March 22) that an increasing number of Clinton supporters would rather vote for McCain than for Obama, and an increasing number of Obama supporters would rather vote for McCain than for Clinton. That of course result in a 3-1 landslide for McCain if it really came to pass, assuming an equal race between the Democrats and McCain.
But this runs counter to Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House theory. There is a key that refers to primary and convention fights, namely Key 2: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. This is the most important key; only four incumbent candidates have lost while taking the key, and only Garfield, by 4,000 votes, has won without taking it. This key has clearly stood this time, since McCain has already won the nomination, and no other candidate came close. But why isn't there a Challenging Party Contest key, say Key 14? Is Mr. Lichtman saying that the fighting doesn't matter?
Apparently yes. He says that ten challengers have won the presidency after losing Key 14 (i.e, having it stand) , and only four have won while winning Key 14 (i.e, having it fall). This means that this key would actually operate in reverse. A fight for the challenger nomination helps the challenger candidate. He says that contesting for the challenger nomination actually provides visibility to the challenger candidates. However, he apparently does not feel that this help justifies including a Key 14' (fourteen-prime), which would say that the challenger had no serious contest to the nomination, or a Key 14 for that matter.
This says that Obama and Clinton are stumbling all over the place, weeding out the mistakes, and that McCain is sitting around doing nothing, and also disappearing from hypermedia radar. The result would be a battle-seasoned Democratic candidate for President, all the more ready to take on Bomb-Bomb. But what about passports, Rev. Wright, Geraldine Ferraro, the name "Hussein" and so forth? They don't mean anything. What matters are the essentials: economy, unity among the incumbents, wars (including Iraq), policy, and mandate. And these right now say the Democrat is going to win. On 2009 January 20, President Obama or Clinton will be sworn in, and there will be nowhere in the media that you will find any mention of Wright, Power, or Ferraro.
But this runs counter to Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House theory. There is a key that refers to primary and convention fights, namely Key 2: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. This is the most important key; only four incumbent candidates have lost while taking the key, and only Garfield, by 4,000 votes, has won without taking it. This key has clearly stood this time, since McCain has already won the nomination, and no other candidate came close. But why isn't there a Challenging Party Contest key, say Key 14? Is Mr. Lichtman saying that the fighting doesn't matter?
Apparently yes. He says that ten challengers have won the presidency after losing Key 14 (i.e, having it stand) , and only four have won while winning Key 14 (i.e, having it fall). This means that this key would actually operate in reverse. A fight for the challenger nomination helps the challenger candidate. He says that contesting for the challenger nomination actually provides visibility to the challenger candidates. However, he apparently does not feel that this help justifies including a Key 14' (fourteen-prime), which would say that the challenger had no serious contest to the nomination, or a Key 14 for that matter.
This says that Obama and Clinton are stumbling all over the place, weeding out the mistakes, and that McCain is sitting around doing nothing, and also disappearing from hypermedia radar. The result would be a battle-seasoned Democratic candidate for President, all the more ready to take on Bomb-Bomb. But what about passports, Rev. Wright, Geraldine Ferraro, the name "Hussein" and so forth? They don't mean anything. What matters are the essentials: economy, unity among the incumbents, wars (including Iraq), policy, and mandate. And these right now say the Democrat is going to win. On 2009 January 20, President Obama or Clinton will be sworn in, and there will be nowhere in the media that you will find any mention of Wright, Power, or Ferraro.
