Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Hillary wins Ohio
Using the spreadsheet exit poll analysis technique that I explained in a previous blog, I have come up with the result that Hillary has taken Ohio by 50% to 47%. However, this will give Clinton precious little gain on Obama. Hillary will not take all 162 of the delegates but only probably about 82 of them. She gains maybe 2 or 3 delegates on Obama, while both step ahead by about 80 delegates to the goal, with Obama in the lead. To me it is another step towards Obama getting the nomination; that is, unless the superdelegates decide otherwise.
UPDATE 2008 March 4 2020. It looks like Clinton has won, but something has happened. The weather is frightful in Ohio, with snow, sleet, and freezing rain. And just like in Chesterfield County, Virginia, and in fact, in my very own precinct, they have run out of ballots in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, an Obama stronghold. A judge has ruled that polls have to stay open there until 9 pm. This could result in a late surge for Obama, making this primary about as tied as it can get.
RIDICULOUSNESS: Something has happened to the Texas vote, and I am wondering now if I can trust anything in Texas. The networks, including CNN, are presenting results for Texas! Obama is "leading" by 300,000 to 210,000, approximately, with 0 or <1% of the vote. Huhh?? That implies that the population of Texas is greater than (300,000+210,000)/0.005, or 102 million. No way. I think Texas has only about 25 million people. Not only that, but they are displaying these results before the polls close in the El Paso area, which is on Mountain Time! Something is screwy in Texas.
UPDATE 2008 March 4 2020. It looks like Clinton has won, but something has happened. The weather is frightful in Ohio, with snow, sleet, and freezing rain. And just like in Chesterfield County, Virginia, and in fact, in my very own precinct, they have run out of ballots in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, an Obama stronghold. A judge has ruled that polls have to stay open there until 9 pm. This could result in a late surge for Obama, making this primary about as tied as it can get.
RIDICULOUSNESS: Something has happened to the Texas vote, and I am wondering now if I can trust anything in Texas. The networks, including CNN, are presenting results for Texas! Obama is "leading" by 300,000 to 210,000, approximately, with 0 or <1% of the vote. Huhh?? That implies that the population of Texas is greater than (300,000+210,000)/0.005, or 102 million. No way. I think Texas has only about 25 million people. Not only that, but they are displaying these results before the polls close in the El Paso area, which is on Mountain Time! Something is screwy in Texas.
