Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Clinton Wins Rhode Island and Probably Also Texas
This night is getting weirder and weirder. John McCain won both Texas and Rhode Island. But this is no ordinary pair of wins. They put his delegate total over the 1,191 votes needed for the nomination. Therefore, the game is over in the Republican party. John McCain has won the nomination. Further, his present opposition has accumulated less than 1/3 of the delegates, and won't get any more. This means that Lichtman Key 2 stands for the Republicans. It is as I predicted. One candidate flys away with the nomination.
Ok, now for the ridiculousness. The networks are so caught up on John McCain winning the Republican nomination that they have said absolutely nothing about the Democrats in Texas and Rhode Island. Absolutely nothing. Not even to say they are competitive. My spreadsheet analysis of exit polls show that Obama has taken Texas big, and Clinton just gets by in Rhode Island:
Texas (incorrect - see end of this blog)
Clinton 44%
Obama 56%
Rhode Island
Clinton 52%
Obama 47%
To me, this means that Hillary Clinton is in trouble. She lost two of the primaries tonight, including by a huge margin in Texas, and she has just barely scraped by in the other two (that is, if the extended balloting in Ohio doesn't flip that result). She needed a big gain on delegates in this primary horse race, which is nearing the finish, but instead Obama gained. However, Obama's streak of 12 (or 13, as the networks have not called Ohio yet) victories has ended.
The previous ridiculousness in Texas has now been explained. They were showing the votes of those that have already voted. In Texas, you can mail in your vote before Election Day. The networks displayed this, together with the percentage of votes that were in tonight. That is a misrepresentation. Further, the networks should not have released any vote totals before the polls in El Paso closed.
UPDATE 2008 March 4 22:28
My deducing a huge margin for Obama in Texas was the result of a spreadsheet copying error. I did it over again for several categories and found that Clinton will win, 49.1% to 47.8%. Just as with Ohio, both candidates take a huge step towards the finish line, and Clinton gains precious little. Clinton still will need some big victories to win the pledged vote total, and I am sensing now that superdelegates will not overturn a delegate victory for either side. So although Clinton won three primaries tonight, she has moved closer to losing the nomination.
Ok, now for the ridiculousness. The networks are so caught up on John McCain winning the Republican nomination that they have said absolutely nothing about the Democrats in Texas and Rhode Island. Absolutely nothing. Not even to say they are competitive. My spreadsheet analysis of exit polls show that Obama has taken Texas big, and Clinton just gets by in Rhode Island:
Texas (incorrect - see end of this blog)
Clinton 44%
Obama 56%
Rhode Island
Clinton 52%
Obama 47%
To me, this means that Hillary Clinton is in trouble. She lost two of the primaries tonight, including by a huge margin in Texas, and she has just barely scraped by in the other two (that is, if the extended balloting in Ohio doesn't flip that result). She needed a big gain on delegates in this primary horse race, which is nearing the finish, but instead Obama gained. However, Obama's streak of 12 (or 13, as the networks have not called Ohio yet) victories has ended.
The previous ridiculousness in Texas has now been explained. They were showing the votes of those that have already voted. In Texas, you can mail in your vote before Election Day. The networks displayed this, together with the percentage of votes that were in tonight. That is a misrepresentation. Further, the networks should not have released any vote totals before the polls in El Paso closed.
UPDATE 2008 March 4 22:28
My deducing a huge margin for Obama in Texas was the result of a spreadsheet copying error. I did it over again for several categories and found that Clinton will win, 49.1% to 47.8%. Just as with Ohio, both candidates take a huge step towards the finish line, and Clinton gains precious little. Clinton still will need some big victories to win the pledged vote total, and I am sensing now that superdelegates will not overturn a delegate victory for either side. So although Clinton won three primaries tonight, she has moved closer to losing the nomination.
