Wednesday, March 05, 2008
A Review of the Lichtman Keys for 2008
Well now McCain has clinched the Republican nomination, and Obama and Clinton has cleared all the others out of the field - Ron Paul and Mike Gravel need to quit. With only three possibilities for our next President, a review of how the keys stand might be in order.
1. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
FALSE. Not only did the Democrats gain the 4 seats enough to topple this key, they outright took all of Congress from the Republicans, with help from a spoken "macaca".
2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
TRUE. Lichtman kept insisting that a dragout fight for this nomination would occur because of the wide range of candidates available, and that would topple this key. I predicted that no matter the range, one candidate will pull out ahead of the others, and indeed that has happened. Not only has McCain clinched the nomination, the non-McCain delegate total of 527 is much less than 1/3 of the total. So this key stands.
3. The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
FALSE. Because of the 22nd Amendment.
4. There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
TRUE. The third party time has come and the third party time has gone. I don't see Ron Paul running as an independent. Ralph Nader does not count - he won't get 5%, and he would affect the Democratic vote. Mike Bloomberg decided he would not win and decided not to run. So this key stands.
5. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
FALSE. Public perception is what matters. There is talk all over the place that a recession is occurring. Increases in the price of oil will make it worse. So although the numbers say we squeak by, I think this key goes down.
6. Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
FALSE?. It is difficult to get good data on this key. I found a table from the Economic Research Service that has GDP and growth for a number of countries. It suggests that the growth rate was 1.4% for 1996-2004 and 2.0% for 2004-2007. It takes only a decline of 0.3% this year to make the average for 2004-2008 less than 1.4%. So this key is in danger, and if key 5 falls, then there is a loss, probably more than 0.3%, so this key falls.
7. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
FALSE. I see no changes that Bush has effected. The Department of Homeland Security does not count. A year after the 9/11 attacks, it was business as usual, buy and buy from the local Wal-Mart.
8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
TRUE. Anti-war protests don't topple this key. They would have to be extensive and possibly cause injuries and damage, and be occurring repeatedly or all over the place.
9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE. Scooter Libby does not count. If this is indeed a major scandal, the public does not see it that way, or it does not know. It is what the public thinks that counts. Although the public thinks Bush is an idiot, being idiotic does not constitute a scandal.
10. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
FALSE. Years of fighting in Iraq have not seen much improvement. The situation is so bad that it caused Congress to switch parties.
11. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
FALSE. I have not seen any. Now if Iraq becomes a stable nation and Bush starts pulling troops out, this becomes true, but Key 10 still remains false.
12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
FALSE. The question is whether John McCain is a national hero. He is certainly not charismatic. To be a national hero, his actions would have to have altered substantially our history. Grant and Eisenhower clearly did that. Kennedy, McGovern, and George HW Bush all have been heroic in World War II, but none changed our history that much. None of these satisfy this key, but Kennedy secured the key because of his charisma. I think McCain's 5-year imprisonment in North Vietnam falls in this category. So this one falls.
13. The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
UNCERTAIN. If Barack Obama is the nominee, the key falls as he is charismatic. If Hillary Clinton is the nominee, this key stands, as she is not charismatic. I think this is leaning towards falling, as it looks like Obama will be the nominee.
The totals: FALSE, 8. TRUE, 4. UNCERTAIN, 1.
This says that the Democrat will win the election in November. McCain apparently does not have a chance. Our next President will be either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, and then it remains to be seen whether Barack or Hillary will deal successfully with the major crises confronting the nation, and become a Crisis President instead of another Nero.
1. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
FALSE. Not only did the Democrats gain the 4 seats enough to topple this key, they outright took all of Congress from the Republicans, with help from a spoken "macaca".
2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
TRUE. Lichtman kept insisting that a dragout fight for this nomination would occur because of the wide range of candidates available, and that would topple this key. I predicted that no matter the range, one candidate will pull out ahead of the others, and indeed that has happened. Not only has McCain clinched the nomination, the non-McCain delegate total of 527 is much less than 1/3 of the total. So this key stands.
3. The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
FALSE. Because of the 22nd Amendment.
4. There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
TRUE. The third party time has come and the third party time has gone. I don't see Ron Paul running as an independent. Ralph Nader does not count - he won't get 5%, and he would affect the Democratic vote. Mike Bloomberg decided he would not win and decided not to run. So this key stands.
5. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
FALSE. Public perception is what matters. There is talk all over the place that a recession is occurring. Increases in the price of oil will make it worse. So although the numbers say we squeak by, I think this key goes down.
6. Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
FALSE?. It is difficult to get good data on this key. I found a table from the Economic Research Service that has GDP and growth for a number of countries. It suggests that the growth rate was 1.4% for 1996-2004 and 2.0% for 2004-2007. It takes only a decline of 0.3% this year to make the average for 2004-2008 less than 1.4%. So this key is in danger, and if key 5 falls, then there is a loss, probably more than 0.3%, so this key falls.
7. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
FALSE. I see no changes that Bush has effected. The Department of Homeland Security does not count. A year after the 9/11 attacks, it was business as usual, buy and buy from the local Wal-Mart.
8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
TRUE. Anti-war protests don't topple this key. They would have to be extensive and possibly cause injuries and damage, and be occurring repeatedly or all over the place.
9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE. Scooter Libby does not count. If this is indeed a major scandal, the public does not see it that way, or it does not know. It is what the public thinks that counts. Although the public thinks Bush is an idiot, being idiotic does not constitute a scandal.
10. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
FALSE. Years of fighting in Iraq have not seen much improvement. The situation is so bad that it caused Congress to switch parties.
11. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
FALSE. I have not seen any. Now if Iraq becomes a stable nation and Bush starts pulling troops out, this becomes true, but Key 10 still remains false.
12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
FALSE. The question is whether John McCain is a national hero. He is certainly not charismatic. To be a national hero, his actions would have to have altered substantially our history. Grant and Eisenhower clearly did that. Kennedy, McGovern, and George HW Bush all have been heroic in World War II, but none changed our history that much. None of these satisfy this key, but Kennedy secured the key because of his charisma. I think McCain's 5-year imprisonment in North Vietnam falls in this category. So this one falls.
13. The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
UNCERTAIN. If Barack Obama is the nominee, the key falls as he is charismatic. If Hillary Clinton is the nominee, this key stands, as she is not charismatic. I think this is leaning towards falling, as it looks like Obama will be the nominee.
The totals: FALSE, 8. TRUE, 4. UNCERTAIN, 1.
This says that the Democrat will win the election in November. McCain apparently does not have a chance. Our next President will be either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, and then it remains to be seen whether Barack or Hillary will deal successfully with the major crises confronting the nation, and become a Crisis President instead of another Nero.
