Sunday, April 13, 2008
It's Settled: the Democrat will win in 2008 - and a Look Ahead to 2012.
In the past few weeks, the 13 Lichtman keys have solidified into place. They now say the Democrat will definitely win the White House this November. There is one key that is not settled yet, for it depends on whether Clinton or Obama is the nominee. If Clinton is nominated, the Republicans are 8 keys down; if it's Obama, they are 9 keys down. Here is the rundown:
1. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
FALSE. November 2006. The Democrats needed only 4 seats to topple this key. They got 32 seats and took over both the House and Senate.
2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
TRUE. 2008 March 4. John McCain won enough votes to clinch the nomination. Further, his rivals total to less than 1/2 of what McCain has. McCain's vote will exceed 2/3 of the delegates, meaning that the key stands. This is what I had predicted all along.
3. The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
FALSE. 2004 November 2. We are assuming that Bush does not get impeached.
4. There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
TRUE. 2008 March. The day that Bloomberg decided not to run is the day this got settled. I don't see any substantial third party running now, and it would take quite an effort to get onto ballots now.
5. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
FALSE. 2008 March. Many economists and other people, including 75% of the population, now say the economy is in a recession.
6. Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
FALSE. The economy has definitely not done as well as in 1996-2004, despite the dot-com bust. It did pick up a bit after the bust and the 9/11 attacks, and it has not done well recently.
7. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
FALSE. I see no major changes, and with a Democratic congress, Bush may not get much of anything done in his remaining time.
8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
TRUE. I see sporadic attacks, such as the VT massacre, the anti-Beijing Olympic protests, and occasional antiwar demonstrations, but no consistent pattern of severe civil uprising. The last such was the race riots of the 1960s and the riot at the Democratic convention in 1968. This one stands.
9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE. The most serious problem Bush had was the Valerie Plume scandal, but it did not affect the President personally. This one stands.
10. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
FALSE. The Iraq war keeps going and going and going and producing a string of American military deaths. The people don't see the reason for the war. The reason was oil, but this never seems to get through. This war was a failure, and it topples this key.
11. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
FALSE. The last success was the seizing of Saddam Hussein; there has been little success since then.
12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
FALSE. John McCain is not charismatic. I don't think he ever had the magic, even against Bush in 2000. He is not a national hero either. To qualify as one, your heroic acts would have to materially alter the course of this nation. The only two Presidential candidates so far to have done this were Grant and Eisenhower. This one falls.
13. The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
TRUE if Clinton; FALSE if Obama. Barack Obama has clearly shown himself to be charismatic to the extent of the Roosevelts and Kennedy, with Obama girls and huge crowds and surprising wins in primaries. Hillary has shown little of this, although she had her moments, too, such as when she conjured up those choirs of angels.
That is 8 keys down if it is Clinton and 9 if it is Obama. This is about as one-sided as it gets, so I predict the Democrats will win, at least the popular votes. Note, however, that it is not certain. The two other challengers favored by a 9-key failure were Samuel Tilden in 1876 and Richard Nixon in 1960. Both of these candidates won the popular vote (if you split Alabama's popular votes proportionally among the 5 Kennedy and 6 unpledged electoral votes). However, both lost the general election.
Now a look ahead to 2012. I am awfully afraid that Obama or Clinton will renege on their pledges to bring our troops home. This means President Obama or Clinton will be blamed for the war. Here is the rundown:
Key 1. FALSE. Frustration with the war will cause this one to fall again.
Key 2. TRUE? Frustration with the war could cause a significant challenger to arise.
Key 3. TRUE. Obama or Clinton will be the President.
Key 4. TRUE? Frustration with the war could cause a third-party candidate.
Key 5. FALSE. Peak oil is looming. High prices and shortages of fuel could result in a 2012 recession or even worse.
Key 6. FALSE. Ditto with this key. Possible hard times are coming, or as Kunstler describes it, a "hell-house of a clusterf*ck".
Key 7. ?? I think Obama with his charisma could cause something to happen, but I think less of Clinton's ability to pull something off.
Key 8. TRUE? Gas shortages could cause riots at the pumps, but it takes a lot to make this one fall.
Key 9. TRUE. Both seem honest enough, Obama more so than Clinton.
Key 10. FALSE. If the next President doesn't settle the war soon, the war will be a quagmire for this President as well.
Key 11. FALSE? I don't foresee any big success soon.
Key 12. TRUE if Obama; FALSE if Clinton. See above.
Key 13. ? Depends on who the Republican is.
That is already five keys down (1, 5, 6, 10, 11) against the next President, or just short of toppling the President. If it is Clinton, Key 12 is down as well, making six keys down. I think that Obama with his charisma may keep the nation together to pull through these crises and hold onto these keys, but Clinton will wind up with six or more keys down. So I predict that if Obama wins the nomination in 2008, he will win in 2012 as well; if Clinton wins the nomination in 2008, then she will win the Presidency this year but will lose to some Republican in 2012.
It is therefore important to Democrats that Obama be nominated.
1. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
FALSE. November 2006. The Democrats needed only 4 seats to topple this key. They got 32 seats and took over both the House and Senate.
2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
TRUE. 2008 March 4. John McCain won enough votes to clinch the nomination. Further, his rivals total to less than 1/2 of what McCain has. McCain's vote will exceed 2/3 of the delegates, meaning that the key stands. This is what I had predicted all along.
3. The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
FALSE. 2004 November 2. We are assuming that Bush does not get impeached.
4. There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
TRUE. 2008 March. The day that Bloomberg decided not to run is the day this got settled. I don't see any substantial third party running now, and it would take quite an effort to get onto ballots now.
5. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
FALSE. 2008 March. Many economists and other people, including 75% of the population, now say the economy is in a recession.
6. Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
FALSE. The economy has definitely not done as well as in 1996-2004, despite the dot-com bust. It did pick up a bit after the bust and the 9/11 attacks, and it has not done well recently.
7. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
FALSE. I see no major changes, and with a Democratic congress, Bush may not get much of anything done in his remaining time.
8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
TRUE. I see sporadic attacks, such as the VT massacre, the anti-Beijing Olympic protests, and occasional antiwar demonstrations, but no consistent pattern of severe civil uprising. The last such was the race riots of the 1960s and the riot at the Democratic convention in 1968. This one stands.
9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE. The most serious problem Bush had was the Valerie Plume scandal, but it did not affect the President personally. This one stands.
10. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
FALSE. The Iraq war keeps going and going and going and producing a string of American military deaths. The people don't see the reason for the war. The reason was oil, but this never seems to get through. This war was a failure, and it topples this key.
11. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
FALSE. The last success was the seizing of Saddam Hussein; there has been little success since then.
12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
FALSE. John McCain is not charismatic. I don't think he ever had the magic, even against Bush in 2000. He is not a national hero either. To qualify as one, your heroic acts would have to materially alter the course of this nation. The only two Presidential candidates so far to have done this were Grant and Eisenhower. This one falls.
13. The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
TRUE if Clinton; FALSE if Obama. Barack Obama has clearly shown himself to be charismatic to the extent of the Roosevelts and Kennedy, with Obama girls and huge crowds and surprising wins in primaries. Hillary has shown little of this, although she had her moments, too, such as when she conjured up those choirs of angels.
That is 8 keys down if it is Clinton and 9 if it is Obama. This is about as one-sided as it gets, so I predict the Democrats will win, at least the popular votes. Note, however, that it is not certain. The two other challengers favored by a 9-key failure were Samuel Tilden in 1876 and Richard Nixon in 1960. Both of these candidates won the popular vote (if you split Alabama's popular votes proportionally among the 5 Kennedy and 6 unpledged electoral votes). However, both lost the general election.
Now a look ahead to 2012. I am awfully afraid that Obama or Clinton will renege on their pledges to bring our troops home. This means President Obama or Clinton will be blamed for the war. Here is the rundown:
Key 1. FALSE. Frustration with the war will cause this one to fall again.
Key 2. TRUE? Frustration with the war could cause a significant challenger to arise.
Key 3. TRUE. Obama or Clinton will be the President.
Key 4. TRUE? Frustration with the war could cause a third-party candidate.
Key 5. FALSE. Peak oil is looming. High prices and shortages of fuel could result in a 2012 recession or even worse.
Key 6. FALSE. Ditto with this key. Possible hard times are coming, or as Kunstler describes it, a "hell-house of a clusterf*ck".
Key 7. ?? I think Obama with his charisma could cause something to happen, but I think less of Clinton's ability to pull something off.
Key 8. TRUE? Gas shortages could cause riots at the pumps, but it takes a lot to make this one fall.
Key 9. TRUE. Both seem honest enough, Obama more so than Clinton.
Key 10. FALSE. If the next President doesn't settle the war soon, the war will be a quagmire for this President as well.
Key 11. FALSE? I don't foresee any big success soon.
Key 12. TRUE if Obama; FALSE if Clinton. See above.
Key 13. ? Depends on who the Republican is.
That is already five keys down (1, 5, 6, 10, 11) against the next President, or just short of toppling the President. If it is Clinton, Key 12 is down as well, making six keys down. I think that Obama with his charisma may keep the nation together to pull through these crises and hold onto these keys, but Clinton will wind up with six or more keys down. So I predict that if Obama wins the nomination in 2008, he will win in 2012 as well; if Clinton wins the nomination in 2008, then she will win the Presidency this year but will lose to some Republican in 2012.
It is therefore important to Democrats that Obama be nominated.
