Beyond Opinion

I got up this morning to see what happened with the election. There were 4 states and one Congressional district that were too close to call. Indiana and North Carolina went to Obama, while Montana and Missouri went to McCain. Nebraska's 2nd District (Omaha area) went to McCain by 569 votes, with Sarpy County slightly outweighing Douglas County. The votes in Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, and Omaha are so close that recounts could be triggered, but these will not decide the election. But the electoral map will be up in the air for some time.

Four senate races are too close to call. But it seems that Chambliss has a substantial lead over Martin in Georgia, but he is just slightly over 50%. If he finishes below 50%, a runoff will occur. Coleman is leading Franken slightly, but Rush Limbaugh is still an idiot. In Oregon the Republican is still leading. So maybe the Democrats will have only 56 or 57 in the Senate. I hope that does not give Obama trouble as he takes us through the inevitable crises that lie ahead.

But what really gets to me is that Ted Stevens has been re-elected. That's right, folks. A convicted felon, convicted of a crime involving the Senate of all things, has been reelected. This is not just a silly joke or something. We have a criminal in the Senate. Of course the Senate will not put up with that. They'll throw him out in January, and then Gov. Sarah Palin will nominate herself in a runoff election against Mark Begich, and if Begich could not beat Stevens, what chance has he against Palin? That's right, Sarah Palin in the Senate, and this could set up Obama vs Palin in 2012. What a thought.

I have been following the election closely and have found the best sites for polls were FiveThirtyEight.com and ElectoralVote.com, mainly because both of these were rich in details; Electoral Vote even allowed you to download its data, and I used that to compute which state would win it for Obama. The last results showed California winning it for Obama at 11 pm, but you could just as well say that Hawaii, Oregon, or Washington won it for him. ElectionProjection.com also had some interest; it ranks states as to how conservative or liberal they are.

The Lichtman keys once again have predicted correctly. 9 of the 13 keys were down, with a pattern identical to 1960; only Nomination Contest, Third Party, Social Unrest and Scandal favored McCain. Unlike 1960, this election was not close.

I predict that Obama will be a Crisis President, like Washington, Lincoln, and Roosevelt. So I am going to add a fourth row to my Periodic Presidents table.