Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Obama Wins
23:33. They are still whooping it up with Obama's victory, and McCain gave his concession speech, interrupted by rude boos from his supporters. So we are not learning what happened to the remaining states. So here is what CNN has been calling. Florida has gone to Obama. South Dakota went to McCain. Colorado went for Obama. New Mexico went for Obama. I predicted all these earlier except South Dakota. McCain leads by 3 with 88 percent reported in Missouri, so this may be another exit poll error. Arizona went for McCain. Obama has a large lead in Nevada, and I have called it for Obama, but CNN hasn't. I took North Carolina out of the Obama column; with 90 percent in, it is essentially a 50-50 tie. Montana has a huge lead for Obama; I have not called the state, and neither has CNN. The Senate went 56-40 so far, so the Democrats have to win all four of the remining races to become filibuster-proof.
23:21. CNN just declared that McCain is the winner in Nebraska. Not so fast, CNN. From what I see, it is possible that Obama picked off Nebraska's 2nd district, meaning that Nebraska split 4-1 instead of all 5 for McCain. Nebraska handles its electoral votes differently from the other states (except Maine, which has the same system). The overall vote in Nebraska provides 2 electoral votes. So CNN only called these two votes. The other 3 votes are awarded to the winners in the congressional districts. The 1st and 3rd districts are almost certainly going to go to McCain, but it is possible that Obama picked off the 2nd, which contains Omaha. The district consists (from Wikipedia) of Douglas County plus the urban areas of Sarpy county. Obama is winning Douglas County easily by 66,945-60,663, a 5 percent margin. Sarpy County is tied, but only 1 percent have reported. I will look some more to see just what happened.
23:05. Well, now it is official. Barack Obama has just been elected President of the United States. It happened with the closing of Western states at 11 pm. There is so much hoopla about him winning that CNN has not told us anything about how these states went. So I will tell you right here. Obama took California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii for 77 electoral votes, and McCain took his own private Idaho for 4 electoral votes. I now have Obama ahead by 337-143, or more than enough. Further, just two minutes before this tremendously big announcement, CNN announced Virginia as the winner for Virginia. I had already called this at 7:15, shortly after Virginia's polls closed. This is because exit poll analysis showed Obama with a 6 point lead in Virginia. A commenter says I should have not called Virginia at that time. Indeed, I am depending on the worthiness of exit polls for this announcement.
And now I will have to admit something. Obama did not win after 10 with Nevada. I checked Indiana and found that the race there has tightened. The exit polls there have changed, and they suggest something like a 50-50 tie, so I had to put Indiana in the "can't call" column. That put Obama back to 260, or short of the 269 needed to win. This sort of thing can happen. I was able to call states much sooner than the networks, but that was at the risk of making a few errors. But so far, I have made just one possible error, Indiana. That's better than the networks with 2000 and their double false call for Florida.
22:45. Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot. That's right, exit poll analysis shows that Al Franken has won his bid to become the first talk-show host that I know about to become a Senator. He won by 48-37-11.
22:03. Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States. The 10 pm report of states pushed him over the top. CNN called Iowa for Obama. I checked Nevada and found that Obama will win by 8 points there. That pushes Obama over the top. It is now Obama 271 (2 more than needed), McCain 130. I have been looking at election returns. Now finally the DC suburbs and Tidewater are coming in to Virginia's results. The count is nearly tied. I had earlier found that Obama won Virginia. I suspect it will be a while before the networks call it, however.
Arizona is so close that I cannot call it. The exit polls suggests that each candidate has 50 percent of the vote. It may be the margin of error is greater than the margin of victory here. This is McCain's home state. I find that surprising. I still think McCain may win it, especially since I see a huge lead for McCain in Mississippi, after I found through exit polls that it was so close there that it could not be called. Florida can't be called either.
21:44. Obama now has 259 electoral votes, or 10 short of victory (269-269 tie is a win for Obama). McCain has 110; actually probably more than that but I have not exit-polled several likely McCain states, and the networks have not called them either.
Some unusual things have popped up. Mississippi is so close that I can't call it. I tried analyzing it with exit polls, and I got one category gave me an Obama victory, and another one a McCain one, both of these slim. For sure I thought this would go McCain. McCain has won Nebraska by 8 votes, but I see nowhere where it analyzes it by districts. I think there is a chance Obama can pick off Omaha, so I have given McCain only 4 of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes.
20:35. Arkansas closed its polls. It went for McCain by about 10 points. The strange thing here about CNN is that they called New Hampshire, and CNN for the past few minutes has harped all over the place about how McCain is losing in New Hampshire, but they ignored Arkansas. They did not even say that it is too close to call. No. McCain has it. Obama 173, McCain 60.
20:23. Obama continues on a roll. The 8 pm results on CNN gave Obama MA, IL, CT, NJ, ME, DE, MD, and DC, and McCain got OK and TN. By using exit poll analysis, I have determined that Obama has won Missouri by about 4 points, and that Florida shows a slim Obama race, but this one looks like a nailbiter. Obama leads 50-48.5 or so. So I am not calling it. So now Obama leads 173-54.
Virginia is beginning to annoy me. I have called it for Obama by 6 points, but McCain persists with a lead. CNN shows why. Not a single Northern Virginia return has been reported. McCain opened up with a 6 point lead in Virginia just after 7 pm, but that was just one county - Chesterfield. McCain has taken that. But get this. Obama has taken Henrico County. That normally goes Republican. This seems to verify for me that in the end, Obama will be ahead in Virginia. Also I note that Warner has beaten Gilmore, and Hagan is leading over Elizabeth Dole, who I want out because of her unstated assumption that everyone should believe in God.
23:21. CNN just declared that McCain is the winner in Nebraska. Not so fast, CNN. From what I see, it is possible that Obama picked off Nebraska's 2nd district, meaning that Nebraska split 4-1 instead of all 5 for McCain. Nebraska handles its electoral votes differently from the other states (except Maine, which has the same system). The overall vote in Nebraska provides 2 electoral votes. So CNN only called these two votes. The other 3 votes are awarded to the winners in the congressional districts. The 1st and 3rd districts are almost certainly going to go to McCain, but it is possible that Obama picked off the 2nd, which contains Omaha. The district consists (from Wikipedia) of Douglas County plus the urban areas of Sarpy county. Obama is winning Douglas County easily by 66,945-60,663, a 5 percent margin. Sarpy County is tied, but only 1 percent have reported. I will look some more to see just what happened.
23:05. Well, now it is official. Barack Obama has just been elected President of the United States. It happened with the closing of Western states at 11 pm. There is so much hoopla about him winning that CNN has not told us anything about how these states went. So I will tell you right here. Obama took California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii for 77 electoral votes, and McCain took his own private Idaho for 4 electoral votes. I now have Obama ahead by 337-143, or more than enough. Further, just two minutes before this tremendously big announcement, CNN announced Virginia as the winner for Virginia. I had already called this at 7:15, shortly after Virginia's polls closed. This is because exit poll analysis showed Obama with a 6 point lead in Virginia. A commenter says I should have not called Virginia at that time. Indeed, I am depending on the worthiness of exit polls for this announcement.
And now I will have to admit something. Obama did not win after 10 with Nevada. I checked Indiana and found that the race there has tightened. The exit polls there have changed, and they suggest something like a 50-50 tie, so I had to put Indiana in the "can't call" column. That put Obama back to 260, or short of the 269 needed to win. This sort of thing can happen. I was able to call states much sooner than the networks, but that was at the risk of making a few errors. But so far, I have made just one possible error, Indiana. That's better than the networks with 2000 and their double false call for Florida.
22:45. Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot. That's right, exit poll analysis shows that Al Franken has won his bid to become the first talk-show host that I know about to become a Senator. He won by 48-37-11.
22:03. Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States. The 10 pm report of states pushed him over the top. CNN called Iowa for Obama. I checked Nevada and found that Obama will win by 8 points there. That pushes Obama over the top. It is now Obama 271 (2 more than needed), McCain 130. I have been looking at election returns. Now finally the DC suburbs and Tidewater are coming in to Virginia's results. The count is nearly tied. I had earlier found that Obama won Virginia. I suspect it will be a while before the networks call it, however.
Arizona is so close that I cannot call it. The exit polls suggests that each candidate has 50 percent of the vote. It may be the margin of error is greater than the margin of victory here. This is McCain's home state. I find that surprising. I still think McCain may win it, especially since I see a huge lead for McCain in Mississippi, after I found through exit polls that it was so close there that it could not be called. Florida can't be called either.
21:44. Obama now has 259 electoral votes, or 10 short of victory (269-269 tie is a win for Obama). McCain has 110; actually probably more than that but I have not exit-polled several likely McCain states, and the networks have not called them either.
Some unusual things have popped up. Mississippi is so close that I can't call it. I tried analyzing it with exit polls, and I got one category gave me an Obama victory, and another one a McCain one, both of these slim. For sure I thought this would go McCain. McCain has won Nebraska by 8 votes, but I see nowhere where it analyzes it by districts. I think there is a chance Obama can pick off Omaha, so I have given McCain only 4 of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes.
20:35. Arkansas closed its polls. It went for McCain by about 10 points. The strange thing here about CNN is that they called New Hampshire, and CNN for the past few minutes has harped all over the place about how McCain is losing in New Hampshire, but they ignored Arkansas. They did not even say that it is too close to call. No. McCain has it. Obama 173, McCain 60.
20:23. Obama continues on a roll. The 8 pm results on CNN gave Obama MA, IL, CT, NJ, ME, DE, MD, and DC, and McCain got OK and TN. By using exit poll analysis, I have determined that Obama has won Missouri by about 4 points, and that Florida shows a slim Obama race, but this one looks like a nailbiter. Obama leads 50-48.5 or so. So I am not calling it. So now Obama leads 173-54.
Virginia is beginning to annoy me. I have called it for Obama by 6 points, but McCain persists with a lead. CNN shows why. Not a single Northern Virginia return has been reported. McCain opened up with a 6 point lead in Virginia just after 7 pm, but that was just one county - Chesterfield. McCain has taken that. But get this. Obama has taken Henrico County. That normally goes Republican. This seems to verify for me that in the end, Obama will be ahead in Virginia. Also I note that Warner has beaten Gilmore, and Hagan is leading over Elizabeth Dole, who I want out because of her unstated assumption that everyone should believe in God.
