Beyond Opinion

Once upon a time, there were three homeless little pigs. They wanted a home, so they started making a home for themselves, but they were all wary of the Big Bad Al-Qaeda Wolf marauding their neighborhood.

The first little pig, Hillary Clinton, built her home out of bricks. She felt that would make her secure. The Big Bad Al-Qaeda Wolf came. He said, "Let Me In!"

"Not by the hair of my chinny-chin-chin!", replied Hillary.

"OK, then I shall huff, and I shall puff, and I shall BLOW your house down!", replied the Wolf. And the Wolf huffed, and he puffed, and he BLEW Hillary's house down. It fell like a ton of bricks, and Hillary headed for the hills.

The second little pig, John McCain, built his home out of bombs. He wanted to blow Al-Qaeda to bits. The Big Bad Al-Qaeda Wolf came. He said, "Let Me In!"

"Not by the hair of my chinny-chin-chin!", replied John.

"OK, then I shall huff, and I shall puff, and I shall BLOW your house down!", replied the Wolf. And the Wolf huffed, and he puffed, and he BLEW John's house down. The house then blew up into smithereens, and that was the end of John McCain.

The third little pig, Barack Obama, built his home out of hope. He felt that people with hope would not listen to a big bad wolf. But the Big Bad Al-Qaeda Wolf came up anyway to his house, and said, "Let Me In!"

"Not by the hair of my chinny-chin-chin!", said Barack.

"OK, then I shall huff, and I shall puff, and I shall BLOW your house down!", replied the Wolf. And the Wolf huffed, and he puffed, and he huffed and he puffed, and Barack's house bent and swayed with the Al-Qaeda wind, at times bending almost to the ground. But it would always pop back up. So the Wolf huffed and he puffed and he huffed and he puffed again. Again the house swayed and twisted around, but it came back up OK. So the wolf huffed… choke… and puffed , and he got really winded for he was really getting tired and weak. The house continued to sway but not as much. The wolf continued to huff and huff and huff, until all at once he fell to the ground and died. Barack Obama's house stood fully intact, the same as it was.

"You see", said Barack, "if we all had hope for our future, and if we acted on our hopes to build a better world for everyone on it, there would be no need for an Al-Qaeda Wolf, and so there would be no such wolf."

And with that, the world, under his leadership, began to look to a brighter future.

In the past few weeks, the 13 Lichtman keys have solidified into place. They now say the Democrat will definitely win the White House this November. There is one key that is not settled yet, for it depends on whether Clinton or Obama is the nominee. If Clinton is nominated, the Republicans are 8 keys down; if it's Obama, they are 9 keys down. Here is the rundown:

1. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.

FALSE. November 2006. The Democrats needed only 4 seats to topple this key. They got 32 seats and took over both the House and Senate.

2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.

TRUE. 2008 March 4. John McCain won enough votes to clinch the nomination. Further, his rivals total to less than 1/2 of what McCain has. McCain's vote will exceed 2/3 of the delegates, meaning that the key stands. This is what I had predicted all along.

3. The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

FALSE. 2004 November 2. We are assuming that Bush does not get impeached.

4. There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

TRUE. 2008 March. The day that Bloomberg decided not to run is the day this got settled. I don't see any substantial third party running now, and it would take quite an effort to get onto ballots now.

5. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

FALSE. 2008 March. Many economists and other people, including 75% of the population, now say the economy is in a recession.

6. Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

FALSE. The economy has definitely not done as well as in 1996-2004, despite the dot-com bust. It did pick up a bit after the bust and the 9/11 attacks, and it has not done well recently.

7. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

FALSE. I see no major changes, and with a Democratic congress, Bush may not get much of anything done in his remaining time.

8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

TRUE. I see sporadic attacks, such as the VT massacre, the anti-Beijing Olympic protests, and occasional antiwar demonstrations, but no consistent pattern of severe civil uprising. The last such was the race riots of the 1960s and the riot at the Democratic convention in 1968. This one stands.

9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

TRUE. The most serious problem Bush had was the Valerie Plume scandal, but it did not affect the President personally. This one stands.

10. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

FALSE. The Iraq war keeps going and going and going and producing a string of American military deaths. The people don't see the reason for the war. The reason was oil, but this never seems to get through. This war was a failure, and it topples this key.

11. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

FALSE. The last success was the seizing of Saddam Hussein; there has been little success since then.

12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

FALSE. John McCain is not charismatic. I don't think he ever had the magic, even against Bush in 2000. He is not a national hero either. To qualify as one, your heroic acts would have to materially alter the course of this nation. The only two Presidential candidates so far to have done this were Grant and Eisenhower. This one falls.

13. The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

TRUE if Clinton; FALSE if Obama. Barack Obama has clearly shown himself to be charismatic to the extent of the Roosevelts and Kennedy, with Obama girls and huge crowds and surprising wins in primaries. Hillary has shown little of this, although she had her moments, too, such as when she conjured up those choirs of angels.

That is 8 keys down if it is Clinton and 9 if it is Obama. This is about as one-sided as it gets, so I predict the Democrats will win, at least the popular votes. Note, however, that it is not certain. The two other challengers favored by a 9-key failure were Samuel Tilden in 1876 and Richard Nixon in 1960. Both of these candidates won the popular vote (if you split Alabama's popular votes proportionally among the 5 Kennedy and 6 unpledged electoral votes). However, both lost the general election.

Now a look ahead to 2012. I am awfully afraid that Obama or Clinton will renege on their pledges to bring our troops home. This means President Obama or Clinton will be blamed for the war. Here is the rundown:

Key 1. FALSE. Frustration with the war will cause this one to fall again.
Key 2. TRUE? Frustration with the war could cause a significant challenger to arise.
Key 3. TRUE. Obama or Clinton will be the President.
Key 4. TRUE? Frustration with the war could cause a third-party candidate.
Key 5. FALSE. Peak oil is looming. High prices and shortages of fuel could result in a 2012 recession or even worse.
Key 6. FALSE. Ditto with this key. Possible hard times are coming, or as Kunstler describes it, a "hell-house of a clusterf*ck".
Key 7. ?? I think Obama with his charisma could cause something to happen, but I think less of Clinton's ability to pull something off.
Key 8. TRUE? Gas shortages could cause riots at the pumps, but it takes a lot to make this one fall.
Key 9. TRUE. Both seem honest enough, Obama more so than Clinton.
Key 10. FALSE. If the next President doesn't settle the war soon, the war will be a quagmire for this President as well.
Key 11. FALSE? I don't foresee any big success soon.
Key 12. TRUE if Obama; FALSE if Clinton. See above.
Key 13. ? Depends on who the Republican is.

That is already five keys down (1, 5, 6, 10, 11) against the next President, or just short of toppling the President. If it is Clinton, Key 12 is down as well, making six keys down. I think that Obama with his charisma may keep the nation together to pull through these crises and hold onto these keys, but Clinton will wind up with six or more keys down. So I predict that if Obama wins the nomination in 2008, he will win in 2012 as well; if Clinton wins the nomination in 2008, then she will win the Presidency this year but will lose to some Republican in 2012.

It is therefore important to Democrats that Obama be nominated.

It's been some weeks now since I have commented on the 2008 Presidential race. During this time, things were fairly quiet. In another blog, I now state that all the Lichtman keys have settled to their final positions except Key 13, Challenger Charisma, and that this means the Democrat will win in 2008, but in 2012 it is possible that Obama would win while Cliinton would lose.

Again the race is being dominated by silly inessentials. The latest is a "bitter" remark by Obama. Barack Obama last week said that working class Pennsylvanians were "bitter"; in particular, "So it's not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations". Bitter, indeed. Bitter, bitter, bitter. Hey, the phone is ringing. Could it be the 3 am red phone?

Barack did hit on an important point, and that is that people are frustrated with their way of life and they find all sorts of taking it out, such as getting guns, believing in God, and hating immigrants. I don't think Obama approved of these actions, necessarily. He was trying to get in touch with the feelings that these working class people in Pennsylvania has. He admitted afterwards that his words were clumsy. That ought to be it.

No, instead, the hypermedia has to whoop it up all over the place about Obama's being "bitter". Everywhere the media is going bitter, bitter bitter, as though phones were ringing all over the place, since "bitter bitter bitter" is the sound that a telephone makes when it rings. Barack could have said that the people were phony, instead; it wouldn't have made any difference.

Not only does Obama whoop it up, but Hillary has to get her digs in. She said that Obama was "elitist and out of touch". What do you think Hillary is? This is the pot calling the kettle black. Talk about elitism, if Hillary isn't elitist, then who is? She has an ex-President for her husband and lives and walks in high government circles. And she is out of touch with the people if she thinks she can evoke choirs of angels and tell Obama who he may fire (Power) or not fire in his campaign. So, Hillary, it takes one to know one.

All of this is silliness anyway. It won't matter on Election Day. It may matter for the Democratic nomination, but the Democrat should still win the White House. Clinton has to win big in Pennsylvania to stay in the race. If she loses, ties, or wins slightly, Obama will almost certainly get the nomination. And that is regardless of any of these donnybrooks that occur during the campaign. Bitter, indeed.