Monday, May 19, 2008
How Hillary Clinton Can Win
We seem finally to be nearing an endgame in this campaign for the Democratic nomination. It's like a chess endgame where Obama's side is a pawn ahead and the remaining pieces are few. Hillary Clinton is predicted to win big in Kentucky tomorrow. Despite that, her back is to the wall. Barack Obama needs only 116 delegates to win, and Hillary needs quite a bit more than that. Every day we hear of superdelegates going to Obama and eventually it seems these will put him over the top. Hillary needs something desperate to throw the entire campaign for a loop and create a whole new contest. Can she do anything like that? She sure can:
That will tell the entire world that her Presidency would not depend much on Bill Clinton at all. That would end a whole variety of things: talk about Monica Lewinsky, talk about Clinton's sexual habits, a possible end to scandals for Hillary that involve Bill, such as Whitewater, and most of all, it would tell a prospective Vice President or other executive leaders that they won't have Bill on their backs telling them what to do. It would erase a lot of negatives from her and cast her as almost a completely new candidate. If this causes an avalanche of superdelegates to Hillary, she will win. But in order to do this, she must act. So do it, Hillary. There are 50 ways to leave your lover, so just Drop off the Key, Lee, and pick up the Key to the White House.
Get a Divorce!
That will tell the entire world that her Presidency would not depend much on Bill Clinton at all. That would end a whole variety of things: talk about Monica Lewinsky, talk about Clinton's sexual habits, a possible end to scandals for Hillary that involve Bill, such as Whitewater, and most of all, it would tell a prospective Vice President or other executive leaders that they won't have Bill on their backs telling them what to do. It would erase a lot of negatives from her and cast her as almost a completely new candidate. If this causes an avalanche of superdelegates to Hillary, she will win. But in order to do this, she must act. So do it, Hillary. There are 50 ways to leave your lover, so just Drop off the Key, Lee, and pick up the Key to the White House.
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Obama wins North Carolina
CNN has projected Obama the winner in North Carolina. I used three exit polls (qualified to be commander in chief, importance of Rev. Wright, and church attendance) to obtain an average projection of 50.6% for Obama, 38.9% for Clinton, and 2.7% no preference. So Obama gets more out of North Carolina than Hillary out of Indiana, in state margins, popular votes and delegates, although Obama's edge will gain only a little. But still, he gets about 70 votes out of North Carolina closer to 2025. He now should be within 150 of that goal, but the remaining states don't have enough votes to carry him over. If Democrats put more importance on Jeremiah Wright than on pledged delegate totals, the result could be a knock-down dragout fight at the Democratic Convention.
Clinton Wins Indiana
On the basis of exit polls at CNN, I found that Hillary Clinton has won Indiana by a 52-47% margin over Barack Obama. I used an average of three exit polls to come to this conclusion: religion, education level, and whether or not Jeremiah Wright is important. I note that whether Jeremiah Wright is important shows a much smaller edge for Clinton: 47-46%. Note also that these are exit polls, and they have proven wrong on occasion; for example they suggested Clinton by 4 points in Pennsylvania, but she won by 9 instead.
This will not affect delegate totals much. At most, Hillary gains 4-5 delegates, and Obama marches about 50 or so delegates closer to the magic 2,025 delegates total.
I do have concern about the importance of Jeremiah Wright. The media have blown up entirely too much, when literally the viability of the entirety of human civilization is riding on the line. He is absolutely not important at all, not even if he were Barack's minister. My views are not all the same as my two ministers', and the same is true for Barack and everybody else. I call on the media to lay off this Wright bit, now!
This will not affect delegate totals much. At most, Hillary gains 4-5 delegates, and Obama marches about 50 or so delegates closer to the magic 2,025 delegates total.
I do have concern about the importance of Jeremiah Wright. The media have blown up entirely too much, when literally the viability of the entirety of human civilization is riding on the line. He is absolutely not important at all, not even if he were Barack's minister. My views are not all the same as my two ministers', and the same is true for Barack and everybody else. I call on the media to lay off this Wright bit, now!
