Woodrow, Karen A. 1991. “DA Evaluation Project D5: Preliminary Estimates of Emigration Component,” Preliminary Research and Evaluation Memorandum No. 78 (30 pp), U.S. Bureau of the Census.


Different methods have been used to estimate the level and characteristics of emigrants for the 1950-1990 period. This study will assess the robustness of the estimates of emigrants to variations in the models and assumptions underlying the data. The paper reviews three principal sources of information on U.S. emigration levels. One set is based on application of intercensal cohort component techniques to obtain emigration rates for 1960-1970 by age and sex for the immigrant population that entered before 1960 and the immigrant population that entered in 1960-1970. The second source, based on analysis of the time series of INS annual alien registration data for 1965-1980, yielded estimates for alien emigration by selected country or region of birth for the time periods 1965-1969, 1970-1974, and 1975-1979). A schedule of emigration rates by country or region of birth can be developed based on this research. The third source, and the only source on emigration for the 1980s, is based on multiplicity sampling supplements to the Current Population Surveys in July 1987, June 1988, and November 1989. These new survey results focus on emigrants during the 1980s and measurement on overall level of emigration since 1980. The surveys obtained information from resident relatives about their immediate relatives (parents, siblings, and children) who are living outside of the United States (and who have ever lived here). Based on sensitivity analyses and prior research, tentative multipliers for the emigration component for 1980-1990 in calculation of the independent estimate for the resident population in April 1990 have been set at .625 and 1.625. These yield ranges for total, foreign-born, and native-born emigration.