KAREN A. WOODROW-LAFIELD, Ph.D.
Selected Abstracts and Studies on Emigration
Email: WoodrowLafield@cs.com
Web Page: http://home.comcast.net/~karenwoodrowlafield
Woodrow-Lafield, Karen A. and Ellen Percy Kraly. 2004. “Points of Departure: Emigration from the United States,” Presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Boston. Abstract.
The answer to the simple question of the number of U.S. residents having left in the 1990s to live abroad has involved multiple “answers” of varying sources. The tasks of measuring quantities of emigration or return migration and the number of U.S. born persons or former U.S. residents living abroad depend on a crude science of scrutinizing various data sources and indirect estimation. Drawing from several studies about emigration levels and return migrants for 1950-2000, this review covers definitional issues, analytic universe, study populations, period influences, heterogeneity of at-risk populations, constituencies of emigration estimates, and alternative findings. We conclude with discussion of strategies for augmenting U.S. population statistics on emigration that meet criteria of understandability, credibility, and feasibility.
Woodrow-Lafield, Karen A. 1998. “Viewing Emigration at Century’s End,” Migration Between Mexico and the United States: Binational Study, Volume 2, Research Reports and Background Materials, Mexico-United States Binational Migration Study, Pp. 683-694, Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs and U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform.
(http://www.utexas.edu/lbj/uscir/binpapers/v2a-6woodrow.pdf ).
Woodrow-Lafield, Karen A. 1996. “Emigration from the United States: Multiplicity Survey Evidence,” Population Research and Policy Review 15(2):171-199. Abstract.
Special national surveys in the 1980s give the only recent data about emigrants from the USA, based on asking residents about their parents, siblings, and children living outside the USA who ever lived here. Each of the three surveys yielded an initial or minimal estimate of at least one million surviving emigrants. Adjusting for probable omission of emigrants without a resident immediate relative, the number of emigrants surviving as of 1990 is likely to exceed two million and, with alternative assumptions, could exceed three million. Due to inherent uncertainties in differing methodologies for measuring emigration for the past three decades, the implied level of emigration of permanent residents for the 1980s may be similar to previous levels. This finding contradicts popular belief of a simple direct association, i.e., that increasing immigration levels would be associated with increasing emigration levels. Emigration levels result from population heterogeneity on such characteristics as origin country, location and strength of familial ties, and reasons for coming to the USA, and associated probabilities of emigration. For many of the post-1965 immigrant cohorts, there is one or more decades during which emigration may yet occur.
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Woodrow-Lafield, Karen A. 1996. “Beyond the Point of Return? Determinants of Legalized Immigrants' Intentions to Stay,” Presented at the 1996 annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, New York City. Abstract.
The "forgotten" portion of international migration to the United States is emigration, including return migration to origin countries. Its magnitude is significant, but demographic analyses can neither quantify emigration from the United States with certainty nor portray the processes culminating in emigration rather than continued settlement. In lieu of analyzing an immigrant cohort's longitudinal experiences in settlement and emigration, this research more expediently focuses on modelling the determinants of intended stay in the United States upon retirement. The analytic cohort is an exceptional one for which we would expect greater commitment to reside in the United States than for newly arrived immigrants. The models incorporate both individual-level and family-level influences on the stated intention to ultimately settle in the United States.
Woodrow-Lafield, Karen A. 1996. “Kin Counts for U.S. Natives and Immigrants.” Abstract.
Counts of even the closest kin, parents, siblings, and children, are unknown because questions about family relationships are usually residentially based, omitting those living outside the household. This research presents consanguineal kin counts by nativity of the key individual based on supplementary questions in the November 1989 Current Population Survey. Similarly, counts of consanguineal kin living outside the United States are presented. Each foreign-born resident has an average of slightly more than one of these consanguineal kin abroad who could potentially wish to immigrate legally under current provisions. However, many are siblings for whom there would almost certainly be quite lengthy delays.
Woodrow, Karen A. 1991. “ DA Evaluation Project D5: Preliminary Estimates of Emigration Component,” Preliminary Research and Evaluation Memorandum No. 78 (30 pp), U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Different methods have been used to estimate the level and characteristics of emigrants for the 1950-1990 period. This study will assess the robustness of the estimates of emigrants to variations in the models and assumptions underlying the data. The paper reviews three principal sources of information on U.S. emigration levels. One set is based on application of intercensal cohort component techniques to obtain emigration rates for 1960-1970 by age and sex for the immigrant population that entered before 1960 and the immigrant population that entered in 1960-1970. The second source, based on analysis of the time series of INS annual alien registration data for 1965-1980, yielded estimates for alien emigration by selected country or region of birth for the time periods 1965-1969, 1970-1974, and 1975-1979). A schedule of emigration rates by country or region of birth can be developed based on this research. The third source, and the only source on emigration for the 1980s, is based on multiplicity sampling supplements to the Current Population Surveys in July 1987, June 1988, and November 1989. These new survey results focus on emigrants during the 1980s and measurement on overall level of emigration since 1980. The surveys obtained information from resident relatives about their immediate relatives (parents, siblings, and children) who are living outside of the United States (and who have ever lived here). Based on sensitivity analyses and prior research, tentative multipliers for the emigration component for 1980-
1990 in calculation of the independent estimate for the resident population in April 1990 have been set at .625 and 1.625. These yield ranges for total, foreign-born, and native-born emigration.
Woodrow, Karen A., and Amelia Peregoy. 1991. “Parents, Siblings, and Children: How Many Do Immigrants and Native-born Persons Have?” Presented at the 1991 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, D.C. Abstract.
Legal immigrants to the U.S. include vast numbers of immediate relatives 9parents, siblings, or children) of citizens or permanent resident aliens in the U.S. The potential for chain migration under the preference system and the immediate relatives provision has been the subject of considerable debate. The extent to which chain migration has occurred and may yet occur may be assessed with new survey data. The November 1989 Current Population Survey (CPS) Supplement on Language, Immigration, and Emigration included special questions on the numbers of parents, brothers, sisters and children living and the numbers living outside the U.S. Based on appropriate weighting of these responses for multiple reporting, estimates for parents, siblings, and children living inside and outside of the U.S. are derived for the native-born and foreign-born populations. Since the statuses of parent, sibling, or child are not mutually exclusive, this research also presents estimates for living immediate relatives by residence inside or outside of the U.S. Family reunification is evident for the immigrant population. Great potential is demonstrated for further family reunification, especially for siblings.
Woodrow, Karen A. 1990. “Using Census and Survey Data to Measure Undocumented Immigration and Emigration from the United States,” Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 7 (4): 241-252. (An earlier version was presented at the Work Session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, Switzerland, April 9-11, 1990, sponsored by the Conference of European Statisticians.) Abstract.
Developing estimates of emigration and undocumented immigration, generally unknown flows, is critical to census coverage evaluation in the United States. A residual methodology compares census or survey data on the resident foreign-born population with an independently derived estimate of the legally resident foreign-born population. The difference is the estimated undocumented population which may be compared for alternative dates to derive measures of change. In 1988, this difference was 1.9 million, similar to the 1980 estimate of 2.1 million. The apparent lack of growth is principally due to the legalization of about 1.7 million aliens who showed proof of continuous residence in an unlawful status since before 1982. Measurement of emigration—the other unknown—has recently relied on resident reports of immediate relatives who have emigrated. Controlling for multiple reporting of the same emigrants, the direct estimate of the emigrant population from the United States is about 1.2 million. Allowing for undercoverage of the emigrant population due to nonresident relatives, there could be 2.0 million or more emigrants.
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Woodrow, Karen A. 1990. “Emigration from the United States Using Multiplicity Surveys,” Presented at the 1990 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Toronto. Abstract.
During the 1980s, the Census Bureau has conducted special national surveys to measure the number of emigrants from the United States. Residents answered questions about their immediate relatives (parents, siblings, and children) who have emigrated from the United States. Using a multiplicity sampling approach, the June 1988 Current Population Survey (CPS) yielded an estimate of at least one million emigrants throughout the world. This survey-based estimate does not include emigrants who do not have a resident immediate relative. Adjusting for such omission error, the number of emigrants surviving is likely to exceed 2 million. Of this potential population, about one-half of all emigrants had departed during the 1980-1988 period. This amount implies annual levels of emigration during the 1980s that are comparable to levels found for the 1960s and 1970s in intercensal research and analyses of the legally registered alien population. This new approach appears to be successful for measuring contemporary levels of emigration.
Woodrow, Karen A. 1990. “Estimating Unknown Immigration Flows with the Current Population Survey,” Presented at the 1990 annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers, Toronto. Abstract.
As there are no official records on emigration or undocumented immigration, Census Bureau research has focused on measuring these flows during the 1980s. Accurate estimates are necessary to calculate an independent population estimate as of Census day, 1990, to evaluate the completeness of the census. Foreign-born population statistics are available from the 1980 census and Current Population Survey (CPS) supplements conducted in November 1979, April 1982, June 1986, and June 1988. This paper reports the results of recent research to measure the undocumented population included in the June 1988 CPS. For the 1980s, comparison of estimates of the undocumented population at various dates suggests that undocumented immigration contributed an average of 200,000 annually to U.S. population growth. Related new research at the Census Bureau has used the multiplicity sampling survey approach to measure the emigrant population. The July 1987 CPS and the June 1988 CPS included special supplements to estimate emigrants and Americans living overseas temporarily. This analysis suggests that the current allowance of 160,000 persons for annual emigration is valid. Although this work is the only empirically based research on these phenomena, there are measurement issues surrounding these research efforts. These issues relate to population universe, population coverage, and statistical sampling. Application of the residual methodology varies between census and survey data as well as with availability of independent data sources on legal residents. The 1990 census will provide data for further measurement of the undocumented population and for assessment of emigration during the 1980s.
Woodrow, Karen A. 1990. “Using Census and Survey Data to Measure Undocumented Immigration and Emigration From the United States,” Presented at the Work Session on Migration Statistics, held in Geneva, Switzerland, April 9-11, 1990, and sponsored by the United Nations Statistical Commission and Economic Commission for Europe, Conference of European Statisticians. Abstract.
This paper describes Census Bureau research to measure undocumented immigration and emigration, a task that is complicated by the nature of both phenomena and the paucity of relevant data. Measuring the immigrant population is a prerequisite for measuring undocumented immigration. Measuring emigration is a correlate of measuring undocumented immigration. The Census Bureau has endeavored to estimate these unknown stocks and to measure these unknown flows with data collection and analytic research.
See also:
Woodrow, Karen A. 1990. “Using Census and Survey Data to Measure Undocumented Immigration and Emigration from the United States,” Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 7 (4): 241-252.
Woodrow, Karen A., Jeffrey S. Passel, with the assistance of J. Gregory Robinson. 1989. “Estimates of Emigration Based on Sample Survey Data from Resident Relatives,” Prepared for the Office of Management and Budget, Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, U.S. Census Bureau. Executive Summary.
Immigration has been important throughout the history of the United States, but in recent years it has become even more so. A full assessment of immigration’s impact on U.S. society depends on accurate measurement of the phenomenon. Net immigration consists of three major components—legal immigration, emigration, and undocumented immigration. Legal immigration is measured accurately with administrative statistics. Estimating the scale of undocumented immigration is now feasible because of recent advances principally by researchers at the Census Bureau.
Measurement of emigration has remained as the stepchild of the immigration statistical system, even though data for 1907-1980 show that emigration amounted to roughly 30 percent of the level of legal immigration. Unfortunately, the various techniques that have been used to estimate emigration in the past are no longer applicable for the 1980s and beyond. This report describes the results of the Census Bureau’s research into the use of innovative survey techniques for measuring emigration, with a particular emphasis on recent emigration (i.e., during the 1980s).
Measurement of emigration with conventional sample survey procedures faces one seemingly impossible obstacle—the emigrants are no longer in the United States to be interviewed. Network or multiplicity sampling attempts to overcome this problem by allowing each respondent to report an event occurring to another person. The reporting is based on a counting rule that specifies the eligible linkages of the survey respondent to the event or person. Multiplicity sampling has considerable potential for providing a detailed description of the size and characteristics of the emigrant population.
In the July 1987 Current Population Survey (CPS), all persons aged 14 years and older were asked if any of their immediate relatives (parents, siblings, and children) resided outside the United States. If a relative living outside the United States was identified, the respondent was asked if that relative had ever lived in the United States. The groups of immediate relatives identified who are living outside the United States, but have lived in the United States, provide a universe that includes emigrants. The universe consists of potential emigrants and Americans living overseas temporarily, including members of the Armed Forces and their dependents.
To derive estimates for emigrants and groups of Americans living overseas, it is necessary to weight these reports of potential emigrants and Americans living overseas for the multiplicity of linkages in the survey universe (that is, the number of resident relatives who could report them). The survey estimate of Americans living overseas temporarily in 1987 is 465,000. The largest group is the 303,000 estimated members of the Armed Forces overseas.
The survey estimate of emigrants is 926,000. For nearly one-half (443,000), the major activity is “working.” More than two-thirds of the emigrants (621,000) were between ages 20 and 55. According to the basic survey data, an estimated 515,000 persons left the United States to live in other countries during the period 1980 to 1987; more emigrants had departed during this period than any other corresponding period. This pattern is not unexpected as the multiplicity approach should yield better estimates for the most recent period than for earlier periods. Emigrants during earlier periods are less likely to have survived and less likely to have resident relatives to report them.
The July 1987 CPS questionnaire also included questions as to whether children accompanied the emigrant relative (or the American living overseas). The estimated number of children accompanying emigrant parents is 273,000 according to the survey. For Americans living overseas, the estimate is 157,000 secondary emigrant children. Combining the estimates of children who are secondary emigrants with the estimates of primary emigrants raises the overall survey estimate of emigration by 29 percent from 926,000 to 1,199,000. For Americans living overseas, inclusion of emigrant children substantially increases the survey estimate by 34 percent from 465,000 to 622,000.
These estimates should not necessarily be viewed as “final” estimates. Comparison of the survey estimates with administrative data for Americans living overseas and with independent estimates of the survived emigrant population based on past trends shows that the multiplicity-derived estimates understate “true” emigration levels. For example, the survey estimates of the military population and Federal affiliated civilians living overseas are each about 60 percent as large as the administrative counts. The report discusses several reasons why the multiplicity estimates of emigration are low. However, the administrative data provide a confident assessment of undercoverage in the CPS for Americans living overseas that can be used as a basis for adjusting the estimates of overall emigration.
Woodrow, Karen A. 1988. “Measuring Net Immigration to the United States: the Emigrant Population and Recent Emigration Flows,” Presented at the 1988 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans. Abstract.
Measuring net immigration to the United States is most accurate using decennial census data on the foreign-born population. For non-census dates of interest, measurement of the foreign-born population resulting from the processes of legal immigration, undocumented immigration, mortality and emigration of legal immigrants is less complete. National surveys allow measurement at irregular intervals. Analytic studies have measured the contribution of undocumented immigration to net immigration, but require assumptions about levels of emigration of legal immigrants. The paper reviews recent estimates of net change due to undocumented immigration. The Census Bureau is exploring use of a multiplicity sampling survey to measure emigrants consanguineally linked to the population resident in the United States. This research may lead to more unified measurement of net undocumented immigration and emigration of legal immigrants.
Woodrow, Karen A. 1987. “Estimating Emigrants from the United States Based on Reported Residence of Immediate Relatives: July 1987 Current Population Survey,” Presented at the 1987 annual meeting of the Southern Regional Demographic Association, Atlanta. Abstract.