Bean, Frank D., Rodolfo Corona, Rodolfo Tuiran, Karen A. Woodrow-Lafield, and Jennifer Van Hook. 2001. “Circular, Invisible, and Ambiguous Migrants: Components of Difference in Estimates of the Number of Unauthorized Mexican Migrants in the United States." Demography 38 (3):411-422.

This research develops new estimates of the total number of unauthorized Mexican migrants in the United States in 1996-- about 2.54 million. This result is based on plausible mid-range values for various components of change that correspond with a range of 1.5 to 3.7 million. This figure of 2.54 million is slightly lower than extant government estimates due to a) different assumptions about nonenumeration in the unauthorized population, b) different treatments of Special Agricultural Workers (SAWs), and c) different classifications of family members of persons legalizing under the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA). The range on the number of authorized Mexican migrants in the United States for 1996 would then be 3.9 to 5.1 million with 4.7 million as a point estimate. Following release of preliminary data from the 2000 census, the authors posited 7.1 million as the estimated number of unauthorized residents in the United States in 2000 (maybe 4.0 million unauthorized Mexicans), and even with extreme assumptions, the number is definitely below 9.4 million.

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