Woodrow, Karen A. 1990. “Estimating Unknown Immigration Flows with the Current Population Survey,” Presented at the 1990 annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers, Toronto. Abstract.


As there are no official records on emigration or undocumented immigration, Census Bureau research has focused on measuring these flows during the 1980s. Accurate estimates are necessary to calculate an independent population estimate as of Census day, 1990, to evaluate the completeness of the census. Foreign-born population statistics are available from the 1980 census and Current Population Survey (CPS) supplements conducted in November 1979, April 1982, June 1986, and June 1988. This paper reports the results of recent research to measure the undocumented population included in the June 1988 CPS. For the 1980s, comparison of estimates of the undocumented population at various dates suggests that undocumented immigration contributed an average of 200,000 annually to U.S. population growth. Related new research at the Census Bureau has used the multiplicity sampling survey approach to measure the emigrant population. The July 1987 CPS and the June 1988 CPS included special supplements to estimate emigrants and Americans living overseas temporarily. This analysis suggests that the current allowance of 160,000 persons for annual emigration is valid. Although this work is the only empirically based research on these phenomena, there are measurement issues surrounding these research efforts. These issues relate to population universe, population coverage, and statistical sampling. Application of the residual methodology varies between census and survey data as well as with availability of independent data sources on legal residents. The 1990 census will provide data for further measurement of the undocumented population and for assessment of emigration during the 1980s.