Woodrow-Lafield, Karen A. 1998. “Undocumented Residents in the United States in 1990: Issues of Uncertainty in Quantification,” International Migration Review, 32(1):145-174.



Censuses and national surveys monitored net immigration to the United States as the 20th century closed with high immigration reminiscent of the early decades. These studies inferred the legal‑undocumented composition for the foreign-born population. For both net immigration and net legal immigration, an increasing trend is evident since 1970. This analysis models uncertainty in measurement of net undocumented migration by using possible upper and lower boundaries on legal migration components and on the foreign-born population in 1990. Between two and four million undocumented residents may have been counted in the 1990 census. The total number of undocumented residents may have been as high as six million. The most important component in increasing the undocumented estimate is the size of the foreign-born population, counted and uncounted. The most influential components in decreasing the undocumented estimate are the number of legal aliens in 1980, the number of post-1980 lawful immigrants, and the number of agricultural legalization beneficiaries resident Census Day 1990.

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