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Woodrow-Lafield, Karen A. 2002. Invited Comment on “Hispanic Population 1990- 2000: Growth and Change,” Population Research and Policy Review, Special Issue on the 2000 Census 21 (1-2): 129-134.
This comment adds to the review of trends in the Hispanic population over 1990-2000 by addressing legal and unauthorized immigration of Hispanics. The high 2000 Census count prompted investigation of net immigration in the 1990s and unauthorized immigration was quickly suspected of having been greater in the 1990s than officially allowed. Researchers face many questions of quantities of settlers-residents, settlers of recent entry, unauthorized migrants successful in crossing, persons who fail in their unauthorized migration attempt, and apprehensions of unauthorized migrants. Very little research was done to estimate unauthorized migration over 1997-2000. The majority of unauthorized migrants are Hispanic, although little is known about unauthorized immigrants of non-Mexican origins. A credible share for Mexicans is around 55-60 percent of the unauthorized population. As scholars conduct their research and policymakers evaluate immigration policies, their efforts are complicated by changing contexts, but the pervasiveness of the ideal of America shines with clarity among whites and nonwhites, Hispanics and nonHispanics, natives and foreign-born, individuals speaking English or not, and families and others.
Bean, Frank D., Jennifer Van Hook, and Karen Woodrow-Lafield. 2002. “Unauthorized Migrants in the United States: Estimates and Policy Issues,” World on the Move, Vol. 8, No 2, Spring. http://www2.asanet.org/sectionintermig/wom/womspring02.pdf
This brief article is based on Bean, Frank D., Rodolfo Corona, Rodolfo Tuiran, Karen A. Woodrow-Lafield, and Jennifer Van Hook (2001) and Bean, Frank D., Jennifer Van Hook, and Karen Woodrow-Lafield (2001).
Woodrow-Lafield, Karen A. 2001 “Implications of Immigration for Apportionment,” Population Research and Policy Review 20(4):267-289.
Around the time of the US decennial censuses, a renewed interest in the method for apportioning the US House of Representatives emerges. Definition of certain groups as included in the apportionment counts and coverage levels for selected groups also have often been debated in the judicial system, legal journals, and government. Unauthorized residents, and, sometimes, lawful immigrants, are often singled out as a group that should be excluded for apportionment purposes. Doing so would be extremely difficult, and illustrating the effects of these groups’ inclusion is problematic due to poor measures nationally and geographically. The analysis considers the effect of several approximate distributions. The apportionment for 2000 might differ slightly without recently entered unauthorized residents or without all unauthorized residents. Allowing for additional authorized immigrants in the 1990s might have little effect.
Bean, Frank D., Jennifer Van Hook, and Karen Woodrow-Lafield. 2001. “Estimates of Numbers of Unauthorized Migrants Residing in the United States: The Total, Mexican, and Non-Mexican Central American Unauthorized Populations in Mid-2001,” Special Report, November 2001, Pew Hispanic Center (http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/2.pdf)
Addressed in this report are, first, the question of the numbers of total, Mexican, and other Central American unauthorized immigrants in mid-2001 and, second, the more specific question as to the numbers eligible under any of several proposals for legalization, amnesty, or regularization that Congress might consider. The authors noted there were probably about 7.8 million unauthorized residents, or between 5.9 and 9.9 million. They estimated 4.5 million unauthorized Mexican residents or between 3.4 and 5.8 million. Other than Mexico, there were about 1.5 million unauthorized Central Americans, or between 1.2 and 1.9 million. The makeup of unauthorized residents is about 60 percent Mexican, with another 15-20 percent from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. If at least ten years of US residence were required in an amnesty, about 3.8 million would be expected as eligible, including about 2.35 million Mexicans. If five years residence were the requirement, about 5.8 million might apply, of whom 3.5 million might be Mexican.
Bean, Frank D., Rodolfo Corona, Rodolfo Tuiran, Karen A. Woodrow-Lafield, and Jennifer Van Hook. 2001. “Circular, Invisible, and Ambiguous Migrants: Components of Difference in Estimates of the Number of Unauthorized Mexican Migrants in the United States." Demography 38 (3):411-422.
This research develops new estimates of the total number of unauthorized Mexican migrants in the United States in 1996-- about 2.54 million. This result is based on plausible mid-range values for various components of change that correspond with a range of 1.5 to 3.7 million. This figure of 2.54 million is slightly lower than extant government estimates due to a) different assumptions about nonenumeration in the unauthorized population, b) different treatments of Special Agricultural Workers (SAWs), and c) different classifications of family members of persons legalizing under the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA). The range on the number of authorized Mexican migrants in the United States for 1996 would then be 3.9 to 5.1 million with 4.7 million as a point estimate. Following release of preliminary data from the 2000 census, the authors posited 7.1 million as the estimated number of unauthorized residents in the United States in 2000 (maybe 4.0 million unauthorized Mexicans), and even with extreme assumptions, the number is definitely below 9.4 million.
Woodrow-Lafield, Karen A. 1999. “Labor Migration, Family Integration, and the New America During the Twentieth Century,” Chapter 2 (pp. 13-26), Illegal Immigration in America: A Reference Handbook, David W. Haines and Karen E. Rosenblum, Greenwood Press.
This chapter confronts four issues surrounding the twin topics of authorized and unauthorized immigration. First, the recent debate about immigration and its impacts is paired with rather unconvincing data. Second, current general theories of immigration revolve in part about typologies of immigrants framed according to the immigration system. Third, an unauthorized resident population persists despite immigration policies. Fourth, in general, the magnitude and momentum of current immigration is affected by the interplay of net unauthorized immigration, legalization, naturalization, and net authorized immigration. Post-1960 net authorized immigration as of 1996 is likely to range from 18.2 to more than 19 million, having increased by 20 to 40 percent since 1990 with increasing lawful immigration and the amnesty programs. For Mexico, net authorized immigration is likely to range from 4.7 to 4.9 million and may be as much as 5.5 million, considerably more than in 1990 (3.8 to 4.0 million) or in 1980 (1.4 million). With greater uncertainty about net authorized immigration, uncertainty about net unauthorized immigration is also greater.
Bean, Frank D., Rodolfo Corona, Rodolfo Tuiran, and Karen A. Woodrow-Lafield. 1998. “Quantification of Migration Between Mexico and the United States,” Migration Between Mexico and the United States: Binational Study, Volume I, Thematic Chapters, Mexico-United States Binational Migration Study, Pp. 1-90, Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs and U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform. (http://www.utexas.edu/lbj/uscir/binpapers/v1-1bean.pdf).
Reviewing critical studies and data sources in the United States and Mexico, these authors reach consensus in the quantification of net authorized and net unauthorized immigration from Mexico to the United States as of 1996. Gauging total Mexican immigration at 7 to 7.3 million and net authorized Mexican immigration at 4.7 to 4.9 million, the net unauthorized amount would be 2.3 to 2.4 million. Noting increases to Mexican lawful immigration in the 1980s, the future demographic consequences may be considerable with an estimated one million family members of legalized Mexicans becoming eligible to immigrate lawfully. For 1990-1996, net growth in the size of the Mexico-born population in the United States was nearly 2 million through all sources, including 510,000 legal immigrants, 630,000 unauthorized immigrants, 210,000 family members of generally legalized immigrants, and 550,000 migrants who had legalized under agricultural provisions.
Woodrow-Lafield, Karen A. 1998. “Estimating Authorized Immigration,” Migration Between Mexico and the United States: Binational Study, Volume 2, Research Reports and Background Materials, Mexico-United States Binational Migration Study, Pp. 619-682, Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs and U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform. (http://www.utexas.edu/lbj/uscir/binpapers/v2a-5woodrow.pdf).
Questions about the volume of unauthorized migration attract attention from policy makers as to border enforcement, but the magnitude and consequences of net authorized migration are far greater. This study focuses on estimating net authorized immigration from all countries and from Mexico and presents 30 alternative series on the basis of varying assumptions as to emigration levels (95,000 to 195,000), agricultural legalization beneficiaries as residents (300,000 to 850,000), and other nonspecific authorized or ambiguous immigration (0 to 1,000,000). Net authorized immigration for 1960-1996 may have resulted in 16.1 to 19.4 million residents of foreign birth. Net authorized immigration from Mexico in 1996 may easily have ranged between 3.7 and 5.5 million at mid-decade. These amounts are increased over the 1960-1990 amounts of 13.1 to 15.9 million overall and 3.8 to 4.0 million for Mexico. This measurement is an essential step for quantifying net unauthorized or undocumented immigration requiring further exercise of expert judgment.
Specific recommendations are given to improve measurement of authorized immigration and thereby to improve measurement of unauthorized immigration. The preeminent recommendation is the establishment of a comprehensive infrastructure with the mission of measuring all aspects of international migration. Six data collection and analysis programs are vital for the statistical foundations of understanding U.S. immigration. First, social science research must discover the full consequences of the agricultural legalization, specifically the settlement and family migration consequences. Second, continued surveys of the generally legalized immigrants should track their experiences of naturalization, family unification, and assimilation. There may be as many as three million future immigrants related to general legalization beneficiaries, including at least one million Mexican relatives (Woodrow-Lafield 1994a). Third, a special survey is needed to identify the heterogeneity of the authorized foreign-born population. Fourth, there must be new directions in modeling transitions among legal statuses for migrants. Cross-sectional perspectives and the emphasis on discrete events of arrival and departure risk biased perceptions of a dynamic phenomenon, durations of stay, and ignore the convergence of temporary residence with permanent residence. Fifth, multiplicity surveys of relatives living abroad can monitor levels of return migration. Sixth, survey and census coverage analyses should measure coverage of the foreign-born population. Benchmarks for authorized and unauthorized immigration from indirect estimation methodologies confound coverage and classification errors.
Woodrow-Lafield, Karen A. 1998. “Undocumented Residents in the United States in 1990: Issues of Uncertainty in Quantification,” International Migration Review, 32(1):145-174.
Censuses and national surveys monitored net immigration to the United States as the 20th century closed with high immigration reminiscent of the early decades. These studies inferred the legal undocumented composition for the foreign-born population. For both net immigration and net legal immigration, an increasing trend is evident since 1970. This analysis models uncertainty in measurement of net undocumented migration by using possible upper and lower boundaries on legal migration components and on the foreign-born population in 1990. Between two and four million undocumented residents may have been counted in the 1990 census. The total number of undocumented residents may have been as high as six million. The most important component in increasing the undocumented estimate is the size of the foreign-born population, counted and uncounted. The most influential components in decreasing the undocumented estimate are the number of legal aliens in 1980, the number of post-1980 lawful immigrants, and the number of agricultural legalization beneficiaries resident Census Day 1990.
Woodrow, Karen A. 1996. "Demographic Effects of Legalization," Working Paper, Bureau of International Labor Affairs, Division of Immigration Policy and Research, U.S. Department of Labor, Based on Final Report (revised March 1995). (See also pp. 53-62, U.S. Department of Labor, 1996, Characteristics and Labor Market Behavior of the Legalized Population Five Years Following Legalization.)
Based on data from the Legalized Population Survey (LPS) in 1989 and the LPS-2 in 1992, immigrants under general provisions were living in households with 1.8 million persons, including lawful residents, citizens, and other statuses. Another 4.0 million relatives lived elsewhere in the United States. Several hundred thousand were unauthorized or undocumented.
Woodrow-Lafield, Karen A. 1995. "An Analysis of Net Immigration in Census Coverage Evaluation," Population Research and Policy Review 14(2):173-204.
The 1990 census portrayed a larger foreign-born population than shown in national surveys in the 1980s. Yet the assessment of population coverage may have insufficiently accounted for decadal net immigration. With an allowance of one million for presence of foreign-born persons having authorization for temporary residence and certain ambiguous categories, 1990 census coverage could have easily been lower than initially presented. Without adequate accounting for net authorized immigration, these evaluations cannot deal with allocating a sufficient amount for uncounted unauthorized immigrants. At least 2.1 to 2.4 million undocumented residents were included in the 1990 census, with a point estimate of 2.3 million. Based on acceptable assumptions of undercoverage of the foreign-born population, the number of unenumerated undocumented residents may easily have ranged between .5 and 3.0 million, and a range of 1 to 2 million is plausible. Better measurement of census coverage of the foreign-born population would aid in setting upper limits on net undocumented immigration as of the census. Clearly, the PES measure of net undercount cannot include much of the undercount of unauthorized immigrants.
Robinson, J. Gregory, Bashir Ahmed, Prithwis Das Gupta, and Karen A. Woodrow . 1993. "Estimation of Population Coverage in the 1990 United States Census Based on Demographic Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association 88: 1061-1071. (Special Invited Section: Undercount in the 1990 Census)
This article presents estimates of net coverage of the national population in the 1990 census, based on the method of demographic analysis. The general techniques of demographic analysis as an analytic tool for coverage measurement are discussed, including use of the demographic accounting equation, data components, and strengths and limitations of the method. Patterns of coverage displayed by the 1990 estimates are described, along with similarities or differences from comparable demographic estimates for previous censuses. The estimated undercount in the 1990 census was 4.7 million, or 1.85%. The undercount of males (2.8%) was higher than for females (.9%), and the undercount of Blacks (5.7%) exceeded the undercount of non-Blacks (1.3%). Black adult males were estimated to have the highest rate of undercounting of all groups. Race-sex-age patterns of net coverage in the 1990 census were broadly similar to patterns in the 1980 and 1970 censuses. A final section presents the results of the first statistical assessment of the uncertainty in the demographic coverage estimates for 1990.
Woodrow, Karen A. 1993. "Coverage Evaluation and Growth of the Foreign-born Population," In Proceedings of the Research Conference on Undercounted Ethnic Populations, pp. 457-478, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C.
Demographic analysis of census coverage carries implications as to coverage of the foreign-born population. Estimates of census undercoverage of the undocumented should be developed in conjunction with a realistic estimate of undercoverage of the total foreign-born population. Any error in estimating the lawfully resident population can be captured as coverage error within the coverage error of the total foreign-born population. Preliminary estimates of 1990 coverage might not have allowed sufficiently for underenumeration of foreign-born persons so that undercoverage might have been greater than two percent. Based on past trends of net undocumented immigration, the size of the undocumented population in 2000 might be 4 to 6 or 7 million. Simulations of estimated undercoverage for the 2000 census suggested these guidelines as more important for evaluating the 2000 census.
Woodrow-Lafield, Karen A. 1992. "A Consideration of the Effect of Immigration Reform on the Number of Undocumented Residents in the United States," Population Research and Policy Review 11:117-144.
Based on a 1989 Current Population Survey, the U.S. born population included 17.8 million foreign-born persons, of whom 4.6 million (or 26.1 percent) were Mexico-born. Based on post-1960 entry, the lawfully resident and unauthorized resident population estimates were 13.10 million and 2.05 million without any allowance for agricultural legalization beneficiaries. If such allowances are made, the estimated unauthorized population might be between 1.6 and 1.8 million, and the Mexican estimate of 1.6 million might have been more appropriately given as 1.2 to 1.4 million. This study was critical in developing the preliminary estimate of 3.3 million undocumented residents as of April 1, 1990, a likely range of 1.9 to 4.5 million, and a broader range of 1.7 to 5.5 million.
Woodrow, Karen A. 1991. “DA Evaluation Project D2: Preliminary Estimates of Undocumented Residents in 1990,” Preliminary Research and Evaluation Memorandum No. 75 (85 pp), U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Demographic analysis to evaluate census coverage requires an estimate of the undocumented population residing in the United States on April 1, 1990. There are no administrative or survey data sources on the population without documents of legal residence. The preliminary estimate for the number of undocumented residents on April 1, 1990 is 3.3 million, based on two approaches. The first approach increased the direct estimate of undocumented immigrants in the November 1989 Current Population Survey (CPS) to allow for CPS and census undercoverage. The second approach employs implicit estimates from carrying forward the alternative estimates for undocumented residents in 1980 with alternative estimates of change for periods of 1979-1986, 1979-1988, 1979-1989, 1986-1988, and 1986-1989. Allowing for CPS undercoverage, the range is 1.8 to 3.2 million with a "point" estimate of 2.5 million. Considering plausible levels for census undercoverage (20 to 30 percent) yields a range of 1.9 to 4.5 million. Without recent legalization of about 1.7 million long-term residents, the "point" estimate might have been 5.0 million, or between 4.5 and 5.5 million. The "point" estimate for undocumented residents in 1990 is 3.3 million with a likely range of 1.9 million to 4.5 million. To account for more sources of uncertainty, the true number of undocumented residents in 1990 is assumed as between 1.7 and 5.5 million. Census planning in the decade led to this empirically based estimate for the number of undocumented residents as of Census Day, 1990. In 1982, preliminary evaluation of 1980 census coverage was made without any empirical estimates for the number of undocumented residents, and those estimates were not completed until 1983-84, delaying final coverage estimates until 1985.
Robinson, J. Gregory, Bashir Ahmed, and Karen A. Woodrow. 1991. “DA Evaluation Project D7: Uncertainty Measures for Other Components,” Preliminary Research and Evaluation Memorandum No. 80 (20 pp), U.S. Bureau of the Census.
This evaluation addressed uncertainty associated with components of net international migration other than undocumented residents and emigrants. In particular, the report discussed the lack of information about the quantity of temporary residents with appropriate documentation and refugees and asylees other than those captured in population estimates programs.
Woodrow, Karen A., and Jeffrey S. Passel. 1990. “Post-IRCA Undocumented Immigration to the United States: Assessment Based on the June 1988 CPS,” Chapter 2, Undocumented Migration to the United States: IRCA and the Experience of the 1980s. F.D. Bean, B. Edmonston, and J.S. Passel (eds.), The Urban Institute Press.
The focus is the question “Has IRCA worked?” Although IRCA reduced the undocumented resident population by nearly 1.7 million residents and an unknown number of the agricultural legalizations, a significant number of undocumented immigrants, at least 2.0 million, remained as of 1988. Some were long term residents, but others appear to have arrived since IRCA’s implementation. IRCA’s legalization program led to changes in the composition of the undocumented population, specifically, a female majority and a non-Mexican majority. Measurement of the size of the resident undocumented population are crucial for evaluating immigration policies.
Passel, Jeffrey S., and Karen A. Woodrow. 1987. “Change in the Undocumented Alien Population in the United States, 1979 1983,” International Migration Review 21:1304 1334.
This article presents estimates of the number of undocumented aliens included in the April 1983 Current Population Survey (CPS) derived by subtracting an estimate of the legally resident foreign-born population from the survey estimate of all foreign born residents. The methodology is similar to that used by Warren and Passel (1987) with the 1980 census. Also presented are similar estimates for the November 1979 CPS—reestimates following the work of Warren (1982). Estimates are presented by period of entry for Mexico and other groups of countries. Comparison of the April 1983 estimate with the census-based estimate and the November 1979 survey-based estimate provide an indication of growth in the undocumented alien population for 1980-83. For this recent period, the implied annual growth in the undocumented alien population is in the range of 100,000 to 300,000—a range lower than has usually been offered in speculative assessments.
Passel, Jeffrey S., and Karen A. Woodrow. 1986. Answers to Inquiries about Undocumented Immigrants (Numbers Eligible for Amnesty under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986). Internal Memorandum for the Record, U.S. Bureau of the Census, October 29.
Since Congressional approval of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 in mid-October, we have received numerous calls as to the demographic impact of the legislation, especially the size of the undocumented population that could be legalized. Although we do not have the specific information requested, this memorandum reviews our research on the size and growth of the undocumented population. We develop a range of 3 to 5 million for the undocumented population in 1986 based on an estimate of 2,057,000 undocumented aliens counted in the 1980 census, a range for the total in 1980 of 2.5 to 3.5 million, and estimated average annual growth of 100,000 to 300,000 in the undocumented population over 1980-1983. With some uncertainty, the range for the population eligible for amnesty under the new bill is stated as 2.5 to 4.0 million as living here as of January 1, 1982, but we have no basis for estimating how many of the undocumented aliens here at that time were remaining in the country in 1986.
Passel, Jeffrey S., and Karen A. Woodrow. 1984. “Geographic Distribution of Undocumented Immigrants: Estimates of Undocumented Aliens Counted in the 1980 Census by State,” International Migration Review 18: 642 671.
This article presents estimates of the number of undocumented aliens counted in the 1980 census for each state and the District of Columbia. The estimates, which indicate that 2.06 million undocumented aliens were counted in the 1980 census, are not based on individual records, but are aggregate estimates derived by a residual technique. The census count of aliens (modified somewhat to account for deficiencies in the data) is compared with estimates of the legally resident alien population based on data collected by the Immigration and naturalization Service in January 1980. The final estimates represent extensions to the state level of national estimates developed by Warren and Passel (1984). Estimates are developed for each of the states for selected countries of birth and for age, sex, and period of entry categories. The article describes the origins of the undocumented alien population as well as some of their demographic characteristics. Some of the implications of the numbers and distribution of undocumented aliens are also discussed.
Passel, Jeffrey S., and Karen A. Woodrow. 1984. “The Judicial Basis for Enumeration of Undocumented Aliens in the 1980 Census and Implications for 1990,” 1984 Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Social Statistics Section, pp. 464 469.
The 1980 census included 2.1 million undocumented residents who were geographically concentrated in California, New York, Texas, Illinois, and Florida. This paper reviews the FAIR lawsuit filed in late 1979, explains the judicial basis for enumerating residents without regard to lawful status, and addresses the implications of inclusion of estimated undocumented populations for apportionment of congressional representation among the states. Hypothetically, the presence of undocumented residents may have contributed to gains of a congressional seat each for California and New York and losses of a congressional seat each for Georgia and Indiana. The precise impacts cannot be specified because estimates of undocumented populations are not sufficiently precise.