2012 CONFERENCE FORECAST = KCFR Projected Standings
POWER = preseason power rating ( not adjusted for partial season suspensions )
HOME = home field advantage (computed from 10-year attendance, W/L and ATS record)
AWAY = non-home adjustment (red indicates negative value) (10 year records)
H 2 H = head-to-head results of Power and Home/Away applied to 2012 schedule
PROB = average of winning probability percentage for each conference game
rating = combination of H2H and PROB adjusted for 25% chance of upset
"ACC Atlantic"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Florida State	86.99	4.22	0.39	7	-	1	66%	0.820
Clemson	87.28	5.04	0.16	7	-	1	64%	0.815
North Carolina State	78.52	3.98	0.08	5	-	3	55%	0.606
Wake Forest	67.15	3.59	0.29	3	-	5	41%	0.384
Boston College	69.73	4.08	0.67	2	-	6	44%	0.298
Maryland	58.54	3.76	0.18	0	-	8	31%	0.077
"ACC Coastal"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Virginia Tech	86.27	5.14	1.56	7	-	1	62%	0.810
North Carolina	77.53	3.65	0.11	6	-	2	56%	0.702
Virginia	75.53	4.59	0.54	5	-	3	54%	0.603
Georgia Tech	75.68	3.96	0.76	5	-	3	52%	0.599
Duke	69.73	2.01	0.25	1	-	7	41%	0.196
Miami-Florida	63.42	3.47	0.62	0	-	8	36%	0.089
"BIG EAST"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Rutgers	83.61	4.06	0.31	7	-	0	60%	0.901
Louisville	78.00	4.31	0.87	6	-	1	55%	0.782
Cincinnati	76.63	4.31	0.32	5	-	2	54%	0.670
South Florida	74.00	4.09	0.26	4	-	3	51%	0.555
Pittsburgh	72.59	4.22	0.60	2	-	5	48%	0.334
Connecticut	71.58	4.83	0.08	2	-	5	47%	0.331
Syracuse	69.29	3.48	0.70	2	-	5	44%	0.325
Temple	67.17	3.69	0.21	0	-	7	41%	0.103
"BIG 10 Leaders"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Wisconsin	90.74	5.53	0.38	7	-	1	67%	0.823
Illinois	77.37	3.28	0.53	5	-	3	52%	0.598
Penn State	73.78	5.10	0.14	3	-	5	52%	0.411
Purdue	75.26	3.96	0.19	3	-	5	49%	0.404
Ohio State	74.30	6.33	1.07	3	-	5	45%	0.393
Indiana	54.49	3.32	1.38	0	-	8	25%	0.064
"BIG 10 Legends"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Michigan	95.29	5.05	0.19	8	-	0	70%	0.924
Michigan State	89.66	4.06	0.24	6	-	2	64%	0.722
Nebraska	88.12	4.87	0.14	6	-	2	59%	0.711
Iowa	72.21	5.60	0.03	5	-	3	47%	0.586
Northwestern	66.89	3.21	0.38	1	-	7	40%	0.193
Minnesota	63.79	3.60	0.15	1	-	7	31%	0.172
"BIG 12"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Oklahoma	94.74	6.00	0.46	9	-	0	61%	0.904
Oklahoma State	99.21	5.21	0.77	8	-	1	67%	0.833
West Virginia	90.30	4.43	1.62	6	-	3	57%	0.642
Texas	87.87	5.29	1.52	6	-	3	54%	0.635
Baylor	87.85	3.58	0.68	5	-	4	52%	0.546
Kansas State	88.42	4.45	0.02	4	-	5	53%	0.465
T C U	85.52	5.26	0.65	4	-	5	51%	0.460
Iowa State	77.77	4.04	0.84	2	-	7	41%	0.270
Texas Tech	78.57	5.09	0.02	1	-	8	43%	0.190
Kansas	60.88	4.17	0.77	0	-	9	22%	0.054
"C-USA East"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Southern Mississippi	80.79	4.22	0.50	8	-	0	68%	0.921
East Carolina	68.01	4.45	0.26	5	-	3	53%	0.601
Marshall	72.39	4.24	1.14	4	-	4	54%	0.509
Central Florida	68.59	4.08	0.17	4	-	4	52%	0.504
U A B	54.70	3.34	0.64	1	-	7	34%	0.180
Memphis	45.62	2.67	0.65	0	-	8	28%	0.071
"C-USA West"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Houston	88.59	4.34	0.08	8	-	0	73%	0.934
Tulsa	80.16	4.00	0.40	7	-	1	64%	0.815
S M U	71.86	2.80	0.84	4	-	4	53%	0.508
Texas-El Paso	65.13	3.33	0.30	3	-	5	43%	0.389
Rice	60.42	4.29	0.79	2	-	6	40%	0.288
Tulane	55.29	2.28	0.46	2	-	6	38%	0.282
"MID-AMERICAN East"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Ohio	76.36	4.06	0.10	8	-	0	67%	0.916
Bowling Green	70.29	3.18	0.62	6	-	2	58%	0.708
Miami-Ohio	66.77	3.61	0.30	6	-	2	56%	0.703
Kent State	67.63	2.80	0.64	4	-	4	54%	0.510
Massachusetts	51.60	4.05	0.21	2	-	6	38%	0.282
Buffalo	54.85	2.35	0.51	0	-	8	35%	0.088
Akron	38.08	2.92	0.77	0	-	8	19%	0.047
"MID-AMERICAN West"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Northern Illinois	76.89	4.42	0.73	8	-	0	68%	0.920
Toledo	75.11	4.73	0.38	7	-	1	63%	0.814
Western Michigan	67.62	3.12	0.15	4	-	4	52%	0.506
Ball State	66.90	3.10	0.55	3	-	5	47%	0.399
Central Michigan	62.11	3.92	0.43	2	-	6	48%	0.308
Eastern Michigan	65.70	2.14	0.63	2	-	6	45%	0.299
"MOUNTAIN WEST"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Boise State	81.53	5.11	1.67	8	-	0	72%	0.931
Nevada	70.06	4.68	0.21	7	-	1	57%	0.798
Wyoming	71.76	3.39	0.54	6	-	2	58%	0.708
San Diego State	70.94	3.94	0.57	5	-	3	57%	0.610
Fresno State	67.29	3.04	0.43	4	-	4	53%	0.508
Air Force	58.54	3.65	0.46	4	-	4	50%	0.500
Colorado State	53.49	3.48	1.01	3	-	5	39%	0.379
Hawaii	56.63	4.22	0.05	2	-	6	44%	0.297
U N L V	53.24	2.89	1.82	1	-	7	38%	0.188
New Mexico	46.85	3.07	0.00	0	-	8	32%	0.080
"PACIFIC 12 North"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Oregon	97.89	5.42	1.06	8	-	1	72%	0.847
Stanford	92.56	4.32	0.05	7	-	2	63%	0.741
California	80.68	4.78	0.09	5	-	4	48%	0.538
Washington	78.91	3.23	0.91	4	-	5	47%	0.451
Oregon State	73.44	4.32	0.22	3	-	6	44%	0.360
Washington State	65.38	3.09	0.18	1	-	8	37%	0.176
"PACIFIC 12 South"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
U S C	101.54	5.67	1.08	9	-	0	71%	0.927
Utah	83.24	4.90	0.84	7	-	2	58%	0.729
U C L A	83.08	4.94	0.51	6	-	3	57%	0.642
Arizona State	67.10	4.76	0.53	2	-	7	37%	0.259
Arizona	68.72	3.82	0.79	2	-	7	37%	0.258
Colorado	60.82	4.06	1.06	0	-	9	29%	0.072
"SEC East"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Georgia	92.05	5.17	1.22	7	-	1	63%	0.813
South Carolina	90.79	4.53	0.27	7	-	1	56%	0.796
Vanderbilt	82.33	2.83	0.15	5	-	3	51%	0.596
Tennessee	80.00	4.42	0.79	4	-	4	47%	0.493
Missouri	83.87	4.70	0.18	3	-	5	50%	0.407
Florida	78.87	5.17	0.55	1	-	7	45%	0.207
Kentucky	67.60	4.11	0.03	0	-	8	33%	0.082
"SEC West"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
L S U	100.78	5.09	1.22	8	-	0	67%	0.918
Alabama	97.43	4.86	1.30	7	-	1	66%	0.820
Arkansas	93.52	4.81	0.37	5	-	3	61%	0.622
Texas A&M	81.33	4.73	0.65	4	-	4	47%	0.491
Auburn	84.27	5.19	0.57	3	-	5	49%	0.405
Mississippi State	73.11	3.20	0.73	2	-	6	38%	0.283
Mississippi	65.73	3.89	0.64	0	-	8	27%	0.067
"SUN BELT"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
La-Lafayette	72.60	3.37	0.29	8	-	0	60%	0.900
Florida Int'l	73.53	3.14	0.39	7	-	1	62%	0.812
Arkansas State	72.06	4.35	0.69	6	-	2	59%	0.710
Western Kentucky	71.29	3.15	0.76	5	-	3	59%	0.617
North Texas	62.30	2.98	0.45	4	-	4	51%	0.503
La-Monroe	61.94	3.19	0.08	4	-	4	49%	0.497
South Alabama	56.34	3.80	0.30	3	-	5	45%	0.393
Troy	57.78	4.60	0.19	2	-	6	45%	0.301
Middle Tennessee	49.12	3.07	0.09	1	-	7	36%	0.184
Florida Atlantic	46.86	2.40	0.69	0	-	8	33%	0.083
"WESTERN ATHLETIC"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Louisiana Tech	78.71	4.29	0.82	6	-	0	72%	0.931
Utah State	69.40	3.20	0.63	5	-	1	61%	0.777
San Jose State	64.72	3.76	0.72	4	-	2	56%	0.639
Texas State	54.59	3.57	0.21	2	-	4	44%	0.360
Idaho	48.79	2.78	0.87	2	-	4	37%	0.341
U T S A	52.19	3.82	1.04	1	-	5	41%	0.227
New Mexico State	51.38	2.69	1.01	1	-	5	40%	0.224
"FBS Independents"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Army	63.92	2.28	0.35	0	-	1	n/a	n/a
Brigham Young	84.36	4.54	0.56	0	-	1	n/a	n/a
Navy	63.18	3.58	1.15	1	-	1	n/a	n/a
Notre Dame	82.14	3.97	0.68	2	-	0	n/a	n/a
"BIG SKY"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Montana State	71.06	3.41	0.19	8	-	0	68%	0.919
Eastern Washington	66.83	3.29	0.24	7	-	1	60%	0.805
Weber State	60.93	2.99	0.12	7	-	1	59%	0.803
North Dakota	57.95	3.46	0.30	6	-	2	53%	0.695
Cal Poly	55.39	3.44	0.08	5	-	3	55%	0.606
Northern Arizona	53.55	2.98	0.07	5	-	3	52%	0.598
Montana	59.45	3.74	0.71	4	-	4	55%	0.512
UC-Davis	56.56	3.11	0.10	4	-	4	51%	0.501
Portland State	53.34	2.90	0.29	3	-	5	49%	0.403
Idaho State	42.66	2.67	0.68	2	-	6	40%	0.287
Southern Utah	54.53	2.69	0.51	1	-	7	45%	0.207
Sacramento State	45.36	2.68	0.43	0	-	8	37%	0.092
Northern Colorado	35.75	2.34	0.44	0	-	8	28%	0.071
"BIG SOUTH"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Stony Brook	64.73	3.30	0.04	6	-	0	73%	0.934
Coastal Carolina	53.88	3.25	0.27	5	-	1	61%	0.778
Liberty	50.72	3.30	0.09	4	-	2	57%	0.643
Gardner-Webb	42.05	2.98	0.02	3	-	3	47%	0.492
Presbyterian	43.48	2.91	0.12	2	-	4	49%	0.371
Charleston Southern	31.32	2.71	0.39	1	-	5	34%	0.210
V M I	27.43	2.30	0.60	0	-	6	29%	0.073
"COLONIAL"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Towson	69.75	2.62	0.23	8	-	0	64%	0.909
Old Dominion	66.99	3.35	1.05	7	-	1	64%	0.816
James Madison	63.89	3.62	0.36	6	-	2	64%	0.722
New Hampshire	63.32	3.45	0.34	6	-	2	62%	0.716
Delaware	60.22	3.45	0.17	5	-	3	57%	0.611
Maine	59.67	3.01	0.16	4	-	4	56%	0.516
Villanova	46.96	3.26	0.33	3	-	5	43%	0.389
William & Mary	48.47	3.14	0.18	2	-	6	41%	0.290
Richmond	38.76	2.92	0.28	1	-	7	36%	0.183
Georgia State	38.11	2.79	0.75	1	-	7	34%	0.180
Rhode Island	35.41	2.40	0.55	1	-	7	30%	0.168
"IVY LEAGUE"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Harvard	63.45	3.58	0.83	7	-	0	77%	0.941
Cornell	49.18	2.55	0.37	6	-	1	60%	0.792
Brown	44.69	2.92	0.20	4	-	3	55%	0.567
Pennsylvania	42.26	3.27	0.64	4	-	3	52%	0.559
Yale	42.35	3.17	0.48	4	-	3	52%	0.559
Dartmouth	33.04	2.31	0.54	2	-	5	40%	0.315
Princeton	26.38	2.45	0.01	1	-	6	34%	0.192
Columbia	23.72	2.09	0.64	0	-	7	30%	0.076
"MID-EASTERN"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
South Carolina State	49.27	3.68	0.61	8	-	0	64%	0.910
Bethune-Cookman	49.92	3.06	0.61	7	-	1	62%	0.812
Norfolk State	49.64	2.86	0.19	6	-	2	61%	0.714
North Carolina A&T	45.27	2.56	0.46	5	-	3	55%	0.606
Howard	41.22	2.27	0.22	5	-	3	53%	0.600
Morgan State	41.52	2.64	0.04	4	-	4	55%	0.512
Florida A&M	40.30	3.54	0.21	4	-	4	55%	0.511
Hampton	41.50	3.23	0.47	3	-	5	55%	0.420
Delaware State	29.34	2.64	0.08	1	-	7	38%	0.188
NC Central	22.61	2.86	0.11	1	-	7	34%	0.178
Savannah State	13.08	1.64	0.66	0	-	8	19%	0.048
"MISSOURI VALLEY"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
North Dakota State	77.85	3.44	0.40	8	-	0	71%	0.929
Northern Iowa	65.93	3.54	0.46	7	-	1	60%	0.805
Illinois State	62.34	3.08	0.05	6	-	2	55%	0.701
South Dakota State	59.88	3.44	0.01	5	-	3	53%	0.602
Indiana State	59.12	2.20	0.68	5	-	3	52%	0.598
Youngstown State	61.57	3.10	0.09	4	-	4	53%	0.507
Missouri State	47.54	2.84	0.44	3	-	5	38%	0.377
South Dakota	49.19	3.45	0.26	1	-	7	39%	0.192
Southern Illinois	48.73	3.39	0.39	1	-	7	39%	0.191
Western Illinois	46.27	2.96	0.07	0	-	8	39%	0.098
"NORTHEAST"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Duquesne	48.03	3.32	0.24	8	-	0	58%	0.895
Albany-NY	49.95	3.34	0.26	7	-	1	60%	0.807
Monmouth	48.02	2.63	0.50	6	-	2	58%	0.707
Bryant	41.75	3.08	0.11	4	-	4	51%	0.502
Sacred Heart	40.69	2.55	0.06	4	-	4	49%	0.499
Wagner	39.75	2.71	0.10	3	-	5	48%	0.402
St Francis-PA	38.23	1.90	0.71	3	-	5	46%	0.396
Robert Morris	31.76	2.69	0.09	1	-	7	39%	0.192
Central Connecticut	31.31	3.48	0.08	0	-	8	39%	0.099
"OHIO VALLEY"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Eastern Kentucky	59.11	3.32	0.18	8	-	0	62%	0.904
Jacksonville State	56.34	3.54	0.38	7	-	1	59%	0.803
Murray State	56.92	2.76	0.36	6	-	2	59%	0.709
Tennessee Tech	51.49	2.81	0.30	4	-	4	53%	0.507
Tennessee-Martin	47.03	3.01	0.34	4	-	4	48%	0.494
Tennessee State	49.30	2.75	0.09	3	-	4	49%	0.444
Eastern Illinois	44.81	2.93	0.07	2	-	5	46%	0.328
Austin Peay	39.79	2.26	0.28	1	-	7	39%	0.192
SE Missouri State	36.92	2.67	0.37	0	-	8	36%	0.090
"PATRIOT"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Lehigh	57.76	3.02	0.58	6	-	0	62%	0.905
Georgetown	56.09	2.10	0.33	5	-	1	59%	0.772
Colgate	48.74	3.39	0.42	3	-	3	51%	0.504
Bucknell	48.53	2.44	0.28	3	-	3	50%	0.501
Holy Cross	48.09	2.81	0.05	3	-	3	50%	0.500
Lafayette	40.73	2.78	0.29	1	-	5	42%	0.229
Fordham	35.88	2.69	0.00	0	-	6	36%	0.089
"PIONEER"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Drake	49.19	3.29	0.20	8	-	0	67%	0.916
San Diego	51.69	3.17	0.59	7	-	1	69%	0.830
Jacksonville	40.63	3.10	0.06	6	-	2	55%	0.701
Marist	36.14	2.52	0.06	5	-	3	51%	0.596
Dayton	36.13	3.20	0.98	4	-	4	52%	0.506
Butler	27.52	2.41	0.31	3	-	5	44%	0.392
Morehead State	25.84	2.85	0.03	3	-	5	41%	0.384
Davidson	27.71	2.37	0.04	2	-	6	44%	0.299
Campbell	28.07	2.09	0.34	2	-	6	43%	0.295
Valparaiso	18.55	2.00	0.41	0	-	8	33%	0.082
"SOUTHERN"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Georgia Southern	74.58	3.30	0.37	8	-	0	67%	0.919
Wofford	67.24	3.38	0.47	7	-	1	59%	0.805
Appalachian State	60.96	3.94	0.47	5	-	3	53%	0.600
Chattanooga	59.94	2.30	0.28	5	-	3	50%	0.594
Furman	60.43	3.46	0.16	4	-	4	52%	0.504
Samford	58.61	2.69	0.17	3	-	5	49%	0.404
Elon	56.49	2.70	0.01	2	-	6	47%	0.304
The Citadel	54.81	2.93	0.47	2	-	6	44%	0.299
Western Carolina	41.40	2.27	0.54	0	-	8	29%	0.073
"SOUTHLAND"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Sam Houston State	82.38	3.22	0.11	7	-	0	82%	0.955
Stephen F Austin	62.64	2.69	0.18	6	-	1	61%	0.796
Central Arkansas	61.48	3.48	0.35	5	-	2	60%	0.686
McNeese State	56.30	3.41	0.45	4	-	3	54%	0.564
Northwestern State	54.06	2.99	0.30	3	-	4	50%	0.446
SE Louisiana	46.00	2.89	0.60	2	-	5	40%	0.315
Lamar	32.52	2.67	0.26	1	-	6	25%	0.170
Nicholls State	34.21	2.82	0.29	0	-	7	27%	0.068
"SWAC East"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Jackson State	54.30	3.04	0.12	9	-	0	67%	0.918
Alabama A&M	48.76	3.33	0.36	8	-	1	62%	0.821
Alabama State	47.07	3.04	0.26	6	-	3	60%	0.649
Mississippi Valley	24.07	2.34	0.47	1	-	8	33%	0.166
Alcorn State	22.59	2.80	0.08	0	-	9	33%	0.082
"SWAC West"	POWER	HOME	AWAY	H	2	H	PROB	rating
Grambling	44.22	3.77	0.53	7	-	2	57%	0.726
Prairie View	42.10	2.86	0.09	5	-	4	53%	0.550
Arkansas-Pine Bluff	39.49	2.54	0.06	4	-	5	51%	0.460
Southern U	34.08	3.10	0.27	3	-	6	46%	0.364
Texas Southern	28.14	2.52	0.33	2	-	7	39%	0.263