2003-09-18 -- US Scientists Find No Evidence of Smallpox in Iraq


(Toronto) Globe and Mail, Thursday, September 18, 2003

Smallpox hunt ends in Iraq

Dafna Linzer, Associated Press

Top U.S. scientists assigned to the weapons hunt in Iraq found no
evidence that Saddam Hussein's regime was making or stockpiling
smallpox, Associated Press has learned from senior military officers
involved in the search.

Smallpox fears were part of the case the administration of U.S.
President George W. Bush used to build support for invading Iraq - and
they were raised again as recently as last weekend by Vice-President
Dick Cheney.

A three-month search by "Team Pox," however, turned up only signs to
the contrary: disabled equipment that had been rendered harmless by UN
inspectors, Iraqi scientists deemed credible who gave no indication
that they had worked with smallpox and a laboratory thought to be back
in use that was covered in cobwebs.

Fears that smallpox could be used as a weapon led the Bush
administration to launch a vaccination campaign for some 500,000 U.S.
military personnel after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks against
New York and Washington, and to order enough vaccine to inoculate the
entire U.S. population if necessary. Mr. Bush also was vaccinated
against the disease, which kills about one-third of its victims.

The negative smallpox findings reported to U.S. intelligence agencies
come nearly six months after the administration went to war to disarm
Iraq of weapons of mass destruction that Mr. Hussein long denied
having, and which the military has not been able to find.

Smallpox was declared eradicated worldwide in 1980. All samples of the
virus were to have been destroyed except those held by special labs in
Atlanta and Russia, but some experts fear Russian samples could have
got ten the hands of hostile nations.

Two of the six members of Team Pox - whose existence and work has not
been previously disclosed - have left Iraq, while the rest remain
involved in other aspects of the weapons hunt, said the officers who
described the smallpox pursuit for the first time.

Though Team Pox is no longer operational, having carried out their
work between May and July, their findings do not dismiss the
possibility that smallpox could still be discovered, according to the
officials, who insisted on anonymity.

There remains little to pursue in this area now, however.

"We found no physical or new anecdotal evidence to suggest Iraq was
producing smallpox or had stocks of it in its possession," one of the
military officers said.

When Team Pox searched key locations in Iraq, such as the defunct
Darwah foot-and-mouth disease centre, they found the facility in the
same condition that UN inspectors left it in seven years ago.

In 1996, inspectors destroyed one fermenter, a storage tank and an
inactivation tank at Darwah and poured concrete into the air
conditioners while other equipment, including filter pressers and
centrifuges were tagged for monitoring purposes.

The smallpox team found cobwebs covering much of the inside, although
a CIA National Intelligence Estimate said the Iraqis were refurbishing
the facility.

U.S. satellite images had spotted trucks pulling up in the past year -
an indication of renewed activity, the team was told. Investigations
on the ground, however, revealed the trucks belonged to black
marketeers stealing scrap metal and other parts around the site.

In the run-up to the war, the CIA said chances were even that smallpox
was part of an Iraqi biological weapons program, according to the
National Intelligence Estimate.

Administration officials often cited smallpox when describing Mr.
Hussein's intentions - and continue to do so despite the lack of
evidence.

On Sunday, Mr. Cheney said two trailers discovered in Iraq could have
been used to make smallpox. The Vice-President referred to the
trailers as "mobile biological facilities" - a characterization that
has been disputed by intelligence analysts within two U.S. government
agencies that believe the trailers were used to fill weather balloons.

Secretary of State Colin Powell, making the U.S. case for war last
February at the United Nations, said Mr. Hussein had "the wherewithal
to develop smallpox."

Despite those suspicions, Pentagon planners did not organize a
specific search for smallpox when they put together a post-war weapons
hunt comprising hundreds of military personnel with expertise in
missiles as well as chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.

"There was some discussion about creating specialized teams, but we
didn't have enough people," said Lieutenant-Colonel Michael Slifka,
who planned the weapons hunt for the Defence Threat Reduction Agency.

The original search teams, which disbanded when a Pentagon-led effort
known as the Iraq Survey Group took over in August, comprised military
officers trained in detecting chemical, biological and nuclear
weapons. Those teams didn't have an investigative capability and
didn't include experts in specific areas such as smallpox.

Surprised by the configuration, a handful of U.S. biologists and
virologists sent to Kuwait and then Baghdad with little instruction
except to help, set up Team Pox on their own.

The team - which included two specialists who worked previously as UN
inspectors in the 1990s - wrapped up their work midsummer mostly out
of frustration with the Iraq Survey Group.

Those involved described missed opportunities caused by bureaucratic
obstacles hampering the search effort.

In several instances, the team could not follow up tips because of
transportation problems. The violence plaguing Iraq means such teams
can operate only under military guidelines and travel only with
military escort. So their mobility is dictated by the military's
schedule and availability to move from them from one location to
another.

Some Iraqi scientists interviewed clearly had the know-how and
expertise to produce smallpox, honed through years of work with
similar viruses.

But none of the Iraqi scientists - many questioned at their offices at
Iraqi universities - said they had done work on smallpox or other
viruses that could be used in biological weapons programs.

UN inspectors suspected that Iraq could have been working on smallpox
or already had it. There was an outbreak of smallpox in the country in
1972, and Iraq admitted it had been producing the vaccine into the
1980s.

"From the onset the evidence was strictly circumstantial," said
Jonathan Tucker, a former UN inspector and the author of a recent book
on smallpox. "There was a lot of smoke but not much fire there."

Tests on Iraqi soldiers captured during the 1991 Persian Gulf war
found that some had been vaccinated for smallpox.


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Quotes on Iraq Smallpox Speculation
Associated Press, Friday September 19, 2003 1:09 AM
By The Associated Press
A look at (past) comments made by Bush administration officials about
Iraq and smallpox:
"One of the real concerns about Saddam Hussein, as well, is his
biological weapons capability, the fact that he may at some point try
to use smallpox, anthrax, plague, some other kind of biological agent
against other nations, possibly including even the United States. So
this is not just a one-dimensional threat." - Vice President Dick
Cheney on ``Meet The Press,'' Sept. 8, 2002.
"There were at least seven of these mobile labs that he (Saddam
Hussein) had gone out and acquired. We've, since the war, found two of
them. They're in our possession today, mobile biological facilities
that can be used to produce anthrax or smallpox or whatever else." -
Cheney on NBC's ``Meet the Press,'' Sept. 14, 2003.
"Saddam Hussein has investigated dozens of biological agents causing
diseases such as gas gangrene, plague, typhus, tetanus, cholera,
camelpox and hemorrhagic fever, and he also has the wherewithal to
develop smallpox." - Secretary of State Colin Powell, making a prewar
presentation to the United Nations, Feb. 5, 2003.
"There's got to be a plan, if we go to war with Iraq and if there is
some kind of smallpox epidemic, we've got to be prepared." - Health
and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson, Nov. 22, 2002.
"Iraq and North Korea are two of those countries that more than likely
have some smallpox virus. So we have to be prepared." - Thompson in
USA Today interview, Dec. 17, 2002.