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known is finite, the unknown infinite; intellectually we stand on an islet in the midst of an illimitable ocean of inexplicability. Our business in every generation is to relcaim a little more land." --T.H. Huxley |
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010Self Driving Car UpdateIn a lengthy article about the book Reinventing the Automobile, we get this:
A bunch of people comment about the article and note that it is our laws and regulations that are slowing adaptive technology. That's the one worry I have about my prediction that self driving cars will be here in 4 to 7 years. The technology is progressing pretty nicely but the ability for our culture and laws to adapt may not. But, I think the increasing desire to do other things while driving--like texting--that will make human driving increasingly dangerous, may be enough to overcome the current social/legal structure. As always, we wait and see. Wednesday, February 10, 2010The Future's So Bright You Gotta Wear Shades
As Ray Kurzweil has been predicting, solar power continues to become less expensive and more efficient in a Moore's Law like fashion.
This year, Efird says, solar installations could double, reaching a gigawatt of I believe late last year Kurzweil said solar would be cost competitive with more traditional power sources in five years because solar power has essentially become an information technology. He's been overly optimistic on a number of fronts but I believe he will be right on this one. The big issue in power will not generating it, it will be storing it. Tuesday, February 09, 2010Analzying the Audi AdThe Audi ad in the Super Bowl was intriguing in that they advertised their diesel by seemingly attacking environmental extremists. A strong environmentalist finds the ad deeper than its surface may indicate thereby confirming the ads superficial stereotypes. It's a dangerous mobius strip conundrum and I don't quite know what to make of it. Friday, February 05, 2010Cub!For years I've enjoyed the song New York City by They Might Be Giants. But it wasn't until last week I found out they were covering a Cubs song. And, of course, that makes it the Video of the Week. Thursday, February 04, 2010Toyota, Toyota, Toyota!
There's no evidence that our federal government is doing anything unfair to Toyota but it is worth pointing out that now that the federal government owns General Motors and Chrysler there is a giant conflict of interest here. And it's worth pointing out that Transportation Secretary LaHood's ham-handed response telling people not to drive their cars hurts many Americans. For those who think somehow this is comeuppance for the Japanese, they should remember that Toyota employs lots of Americans in dealerships and manufacturing plants all across the country.
Wednesday, February 03, 2010Sixth Sense TechnologyHere's a pretty cool merging physical with virtual world technology. Budgeting the BudgetThe New York Times has a useful chart of where the money is going in Obama's proposed $3.69 trillion FY 2011 budget. Lots of folks are saying we need to cut the deficit but few are offering specifics. Let me offer a couple of ideas based on what we see the chart. None of these will happen I'm sure but they offer a little something for both the left and the right. --Reduce the operation and maintenance part of defense budget. It is going up by nearly 7% from 2010 to 2011. If that means less committments overseas, so be it. We still have bases all over the world, including in Western Europe. We're broke and it's time to cut back which can be done in a way that does not damage our national security. --Institute a carbon tax. This will raise revenues and help usher in alternative energies. Even if the climate science scandals indicate there is not human induced global warming (and the evidence says this is not true) it's still a good idea to stop spewing so much of this stuff into the air. --Raise the Social Security Retirement age by 2 years. --Raise the eligibility age for Medicare. --Cut farm subsidies. --Cut federal employee salary and benefits by 5%. Tuesday, February 02, 2010Screw You Great DepressionPeople keep telling us that thanks to TARP and measures by the Fed we avoided a repeat of the Great Depression. This may be true, we've been saying, but we don't know for sure yet that we have avoided the Great Depression--it's still early. And, for some places, it might as well be the Great Depression. I was talking to someone who travels to Palm Springs quite a bit which is in Riverside County, the unemployment rate of which is 30%. Yep, you heard that right: 30 big ones. Now that's Great Depression territory. So, let's see where our economy is in a year or two before we start celebrating too much. Monday, February 01, 2010Chart of the CrisisWho was stimulating and who was bailing out. A chart of the worldwide financial crisis. Friday, January 29, 2010A Tribute to J.D. SalingerWednesday, January 27, 2010Yeah on Ending DADTObama deserves big applause for asserting he will work with Congress to end Do Not Ask Do Not Tell. It was a politically risky but important thing to do from both a civil rights and and national security perspective. We have drummed out of the military Arabic speakers because they are gay. Sometime later this year such stupidity and monstrosities will end. Good for Obama. State of Public ServiceI heard only bits and pieces of Obama's speech but one part I did hear was his call for forgiving debt for students after 20 years and after only 10 years for those that enter public service. Why is public service held with greater esteem than private sector work? There is no evidence it is more valuable or helps more people. It reflects Obama's values and those in the majority party that work which does not entail making a profit is somehow more noble or valuable. It is a bad message to send and counterproductive to our economy. More Matter Over MindIt's updated below but since I misunderstood the Obama spending freeze proposal I attacked yesterday it's worth noting that apparently what Obama is proposing is not an across the board freeze but instead its a freeze on total spending and he will specify which programs go up and which go down undert the total. We await the details. Matter over MindObama is apparently going to propose a spending freeze in his state of the union address. Few policy prescriptions are more annoying than this. Proposing an across the board spending freeze is an assertion that all spending is equal, that in a time of great deficits we will not establish priorities. It's a proposal worthy of ridicule. Update: Apparently what Obama is proposing is not an across the board freeze but instead its a freeze on total spending and he will specify which programs go up and which go down under the total. We await the details. Tuesday, January 26, 2010Solutions to our ProblemsVia MarginalRevolution, here's an interesting approach to dealing with our debt and deficit problems. His big items are establishing a VAT, abolishing the income tax and increasing the payroll tax for the wealthy. He tackles the revenue side more than the spending side. Monday, January 25, 2010Coco!Friday, January 22, 2010Late Night VideosThe Late Night Show War continues which reminds me of a certain Larry Bud Melman. The Video of the Week: In Case You Were WonderingThursday, January 21, 2010Kurzweil predictionsAn interesting conversation is taking place at Accelerating Future on predictions by Ray Kurzweil about 2009 that he made writing the book Age of Spiritual Machines. The book was published in 1998 but he wrote it in the 1996/7 time period. Earlier, Michael Anissmov took Kurzweil to task for wrong predictions. Kurzweil strikes back in a letter defending most of his predictions and says he is working on an essay that will go into more detail about those predictions. When Kurzweil goes wrong it's usually because he gets the sociology wrong (people don't particularly want speech to text technology that much). My guess is he will be wrong on some of his health/biological predictions made in The Singularity is Near because he underestimates the complexity of the human body. All that being said, he's also been right about quite a few things.
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