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Friday, July 29, 2005Democratic Plame VanitiesABC's The Note understands why it is foolish of the Dem's to obsess over the Valerie Plame scandal: If the Bush White House weren't so completely distracted by the Wilson leak investigation, perhaps the President would be able to actually get something done besides sign CAFTA, the highway bill, and the energy bill into law; read all the improving economic figures; celebrate his still-bullet-proof Supreme Court nomination; and continue along semi-stealthily on 2006 fundraising and candidate recruitment. And if the Democrats weren't so sure that a one-sentence party platform ("Karl Rove should be in jail.") was a sure winner, perhaps they would Notice that the Republican majority is likely to get at least some credit with voters for passing these laws; that the Bill Clinton Democratic Party of free trade just might have been dead and buried shortly after midnight; and that the AFL thing along with the America Coming Together thing, along with the DNC thing leaves the party with some serious money and organization questions. And/but there's still the Iraq war and Social Security for the White House to deal with, but does anyone think Democrats are scoring political points galore on those? And/but perhaps Democrats will be able to convince the country by votin' time that Washington is a corrupt, Republican-dominated cesspool of special interest greed and that the macro economic numbers mean nothing. (Just like in 2002 and 2004. . .) So completes our snap-shot summary of everything you have to know about American politics in fewer than 250 words. Of course, the highway bill The Note refers to is a bunch of pork but the Dems were kings of such swine when they were in power. But the point still holds. As Democrats and the left blogosphere put all their effort into unearthing what the Federal Prosecuter is apparently already digging up, the real issues and chances for leverage with the voters pass them by. Thursday, July 28, 2005She RobotCool story on human-like robots. The future is now. Wednesday, July 27, 2005Why No MoneyballingWith the Oakland A's in first place in the Wild Card hunt, now is as good a time as any to again look at "Moneyballing" public policy. Or rather, it is a good time to examine why the "Moneyballing" concept is not used in public policy. The answer, I think, is revealed in an article on the Hard Ball Times web site: "Moneyball, the philosophy, involves properly allocating scarce resources, explaining the book's popularity among economists–and the A's play it better than anyone." The problem, of course, is that most people in public policy don't think there is such a thing as "scarce resources." We need to replace the viaduct. We need to spend more money on education. We need to give small businesses a tax break. In the current public policy process, we don't examine which of these is most important. We just assume resources are infinite and we will find a way to do all of them. Further, we don't back away from the issues and say "what does it mean to have a successful education system and what does it take to create one within a finite amount of resources. Until we start asking these types of questions, we will continue to have the same kinds of public policy problems and the Mariners will continue to be in last place as the A's go to the playoffs with a payroll one-third as large. Tuesday, July 26, 2005I am immaturebut this is funny (via my friend, Brian): Imagine this...You just came to Texas Tech University as a freshman...You are SO PROUD that you have been chosen to pump up the crowd as theschool's "BELL RINGER" during the big game...Your whole family, all of your friends, and 15 million ESPN viewers seeyou on Saturday's telecast ringing the team's bell...But due to the tragically unfortunate placement of the bell, the cameraand your body...Your whole family, all of your friends, and 15 million ESPN viewers, seeyou doing something that DOES NOT appear to be ringing the team's bellAT ALL...Sometimes, Point Of View is everything. Click here to view accompanying video (not office friendly) Monday, July 25, 2005The More Things ChangePeople were concerned about the pace of change back in 1837 too. From the biography on Lincoln I'm reading: Lincoln was troubled by what he perceived as the rapid rate of change in American life. Canals and railroads were bringing about a transportation revolution; the population was swiftly spreading across the continent; immigration was beginning to seem a threat to American social cohesion; sectionalism was becoming ever more divisive as the controversy over slavery mounted; the political battles of the Jackson era had destroyed the national political consensus. The Bush Torture MachineFor those who think Bush is really against torture despite all the evidence to the contrary, here is this article in The Washington Post: The Bush administration in recent days has been lobbying to block legislation supported by Republican senators that would bar the U.S. military from engaging in "cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment" of detainees, from hiding prisoners from the Red Cross, and from using interrogation methods not authorized by a new Army field manual. John McCain is planning on introducing legislation next week that would "set uniform standards for interrogating anyone detained by the Defense Department and would limit interrogation techniques to those listed in the Army field manual on interrogation, now being revised. Any changes to procedures would require the defense secretary to appear before Congress." But the Bush Administration, which lied to the American public when it said torture was the fault of a few low level rogue elements, wants to set its own standards for prisoner treatment. And, of course, it wants to do all this in secret as evidenced by the fact it opposes this part of the legislation too: [the legislation] would further require that all foreign nationals in the custody or effective control of the U.S. military must be registered with the International Committee of the Red Cross -- a provision specifically meant to block the holding of "ghost detainees" in Iraq, in Afghanistan or elsewhere. Friday, July 22, 2005Bag o Tricks
I'm skeptical randomly searching bags on NY subways and buses will be effective in stopping bombings and am even more skeptical of where these searches will lead to as far as other intrusive measures into people's lives.
Rice and Journalists in SudanIf you missed this in all the other news of the day, you should check out the Sudanese government's roughing up U.S. journalists and State Department staff. Their actions are not surprising since this is the same crowd killing people in Darfur. Thursday, July 21, 2005Hiding Behind the Capitalist FlagA new community blog launched this week and they're calling themselves the "UnCapitalist Journal." This reminds me that often people on the left are disingenuous about their political beliefs. They become irate when someone accuses them of being communists or socialists. What's refreshing about this blog is that it is pretty much upfront by its very name that it is against capitalism. It's understandable that many extreme liberals don't want to be tagged with "ism" titles what with the McCarthy era and all but with the Soviet Union gone they no longer need worry about being blacklisted. Too many elected officials of the left try to pretend they are for capitalism when in reality they are not. These folks will couch their positions in non-threatening terms such as "economic and social justice." But, if you really delve into their beliefs, they don't believe in capitalism. They are, as UnCapitalist Journal depicts itself, "suspicious of capitalism." And, it is not just the fringes of the left that have these beliefs but many in the mainstream as well (Clinton was driving the Democrats in the opposite direction but since the anti-capitalist forces have gained more sway). Kevin Drum, who blogs the mainstream publication The Washington Monthly, is one of the founders of the Journal. After the fall of the Soviet Union I was convinced something else would take the place of communism and socialism as a counter-force to capitalism in the world. I reasoned that nature abhors a vacuum and something new would rise up as a counterbalance . However, I wasn't sure what the philosophical counter-weight would be. I tried to think of new economic systems but imagination failed me. Some think 911 and the subsequent terrorist attacks show that Islamic Theocracy is the new foe for capitalism. I don't think it is nearly strong enough. It is possible, however, that instead of finding itself in an open battle, capitalism will instead shadow box with socialism. Of course, perhaps UnCapitalist Journal is a sign that the sparring will take place in public now. Wednesday, July 20, 2005Your Payment is DueAccording to the latest stats, Americans paid off $3 billion in credit card debt last month. This is only 1 percent of the total debt owed--we Americans owe $2.1 trillion in credit card debt--so that little $3 down payment may not seem like a big deal. But, this is the biggest decline in credit card debt since 1990. Are we all finally realizing we can't ever increase our debt for time immemorial. Is the great ship of state slowly turning from the ice bergs of unsustainability? And what happens short term if Americans stop being the consumers of first choice for the world? Stay tuned. Plame GameAs I said before, even if Rove is found to be a criminal and worse in the Leaky Plame case, it's not a particularly important story. But the obsessive Josh Marshall doesn't care: Yes, yes, yes, I know. In a couple hours we'll know who the president's Supreme Court nominee is. Dobson will come charging down from his hillock. SpongeBob will run for the hills. And all hell will likely break loose. But don't miss the piece in today's Wall Street Journal (available to non-subscribers) which adds a bit of new information. That classified State Dept. memo, which was probably the ultimate source of the Plame leak, "made clear that information identifying an agent and her role in her husband's intelligence-gathering mission was sensitive and shouldn't be shared." We don't know enough details yet to know precisely how that piece fits into the puzzle. But it likely makes a defense based on ignorance much more difficult for someone. It would be too easy to call Josh Marshall "Ahab". No, I'd say he's more Kenneth Starr-like. Judging RobertsLike every other red blooded American, I know next to nothing about Bush's nominee to the Supreme Court. I do know I hope as a Supreme Court Justice (assuming he's confirmed) that John Roberts will rule that the Executive Branch of the U.S Government cannot hold indefinitely without trial U.S. citizens Tuesday, July 19, 2005Oh, and thisRoger Ebert, in an interview, talks about the old newspaper days. Q. You used to drink with your friend Mike Royko and others at Riccardo's and the Billy Goat, back when newspapermen did that sort of thing regularly. But then one day, in 1979, you simply had enough and stopped. A. It was getting to be out of control. Nobody at the Sun-Times ever said a word about my drinking. Or anybody else's. I mean, in the '60s and '70s, people were at O'Rourke's [another famous watering hole for local journalists] more or less every night of the week. One of the [current] editors said to me one day, "Is it true that reporters used to be allowed to smoke at their desks?" And I just had to laugh. And so things were different then. You could probably get fired today for drug use in the building. And in those days, in the late '60s, the early '70s, it was widely known that one of the copy boys was selling pills and pot right out of the wire room. I never got into that, but people did. I miss those days...and I wasn't even around for them. Read the whole interview, btw, which is full of gems. Well, one thingOkay, at least this story happened today. Nothing happened todaySo far, anyway. If it does, I'll post. Monday, July 18, 2005More Plame Blame
I'm not the only one who was against the to war in Iraq and thinks this Valerie Plame scandal is a waste of time. Jerry Pournelle (whoever the hell that is--apparently some science fiction writer) gets it right with this:
There are a lot of sticks to beat the administration with. The war was not a good idea. But most of the Democrats who want to beat up the administration over the war voted to authorize it, so an honest analysis of the war decision factors won't work. So, we have this imbecile investigation taking up time...There are a lot of questions of importance, and this isn't one of them. The real question is what are we going to do NOW that we are over there in Iraq and any retreat will be seen as a victory for the people we do not want to feel victorious. There is no substitute for victory and that applies to jihadists as much as anyone else. We should not have gone in there, but we are there, and we have got to find a way out. If all this ingenuity were applied to that question something might come of it, but trying to get Karl Rove to go to a private political management firm is not going to amount to much whatever happens. Barkley Philosophy
In a long article by Jim Moore in Friday's P.I., the ever quotable Charles Barkley tosses off gem after gem, including this incredibly gleaming one:
"Walking up the 15th fairway, Barkley stops to talk to a woman whose political beliefs differ from his: How you can be a Republican, he asks. I thought you were a Republican, the woman replies. That was until they went crazy, before all those religious fanatics took over, Barkley says. Friday, July 15, 2005More Islamic Theocrats LosingAs noted in a previous post, the Islamic Theocrats tactics are backfiring. According to the Washington Post, "Osama bin Laden's standing has dropped significantly in some key Muslim countries, while support for suicide bombings and other acts of violence has 'declined dramatically,' according to a new survey released today." The civilians killed by Osama's crowd in Iraq and elsewhere is exacting a toll, but not in the way Al Quada and its associated groups hoped. The Washington Post article notes, 'Most Muslim publics are expressing less support for terrorism than in the past. Confidence in Osama bin Laden has declined markedly in some countries, and fewer believe suicide bombings that target civilians are justified in the defense of Islam,' concluded the Pew Global Attitudes Project. Compared with previous surveys, the new poll also found growing majorities or pluralities of Muslims surveyed now say democracy can work in their countries and is not just a political system for the West." After the London bombings, for the first time large number of Muslim groups and Middle Eastern governments condemned acts of terrorism in the name of Islam. A USA Today article (I can't find the link) notes Zaraqawi and his mentor are at odds in the killing of Iraqi civilians as a tactic of the insurgency. We are winning the war against Islamic Theocracy (or as too many falsely call it, the war on terrorism). There are three worries. First. that the current battles in Iraq will turn into a full-scale civil war between Sunnis and Shiites. This, of course, would put the U.S. in an unwinnable position and create a new dynamic in Islamic public opinion. Second, we will have won nothing if we allow terrorism to horribly distort our free societies (more on this in posts below). Third, should the Theocrats be able to pull off a catastrophic terrorist event it may cause a reaction by the west that puts the whole world off kilter, from free trade to new short-sighted attacks against countries in the Middle East. More later on what we can do to continue to win the war. ID'ing BritainBritain, in light of the London bombings, is considering instituting an expensive national ID card system. This is another example of a free society taking an unnecessary measure endangering freedom that does absolutely nothing for security. The four bombers in London were all British citizens. It will do no good to win the war against Islamic Theocracy if we destroy our free societies in doing so. Bush Administration Condones TortureI planned on writing a long post about the Schmidt Report on torture at Gitmo but Andrew Sullivan does such a good job covering this I'll just link to him. There's extensive posts on the site about the report as well as responses from his readers which shows that many Americans essentially support torture in the war against Al Queda. There's much work to be done to convince people that this is morally wrong and tactically as well. We're winning the war against Islamic Theocracy but it doesn't have anything to do with torturing detainees (some of whom we now know were innocent victims, not terrorists). Islamic Theocrats LosingLost in the bombings of London, the continuing attacks in Iraq and all the other violent hubbub of the Islamic Theocrats is the fact that their tactics are not working. According to the polls, there is more British public support for keeping the troops in Iraq now than before the bombings. There was no dancing in the streets in Palestine after the London bombings. In Iraq, there is a large split amongst the Iraqi insurgents and foreign insurgents and even amongst the foreign insurgents there is a growing backlash against the killing of Iraqis. More on all this a little later today or tonight after I recover from a late night softball game. Thursday, July 14, 2005Rovian MisunderstandingThere may be a misunderstanding about my previous post on the Valerie Prame outing scandal. I'm not absolving Karl Rove of any malfeasance; I don't know if he's guilty or not and will wait for the prosecutor Fitzgerald to file indictments. If Rove did out a covert agent of the CIA, he deserves to be fired and if the law allows, prosecuted. My point is the Democrats shouldn't make this their big cause celbre. I'm sure it will feel good to take Rove down (if it happens) but it doesn't mean much and won't do much. They need to keep their eyes on the policy balls not the vengeance ones. Wednesday, July 13, 2005Counter Productive CrazinessThe usually responsible TPMCafe has a crazy post by Annie Lamott on Karl Rove. Here's but one of Annie "The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow if the Government Conspiracy Allows It:" Lamott's thoughts, "But back to the paranoia: I am able to believe, about half the time, that Bush and Rove would be capable of orchestrating a second terrorist attack on America, if and when they deem it necessary to instill martial law, which they will." One of my great frustrations with the Democratic opposition during the presidential campaign and since is its continuing ability to attack the Bush administration in ways that lets them off the hook. Kerry bases his campaign on his military service rather than forthrightly attacking the Bush Administration on its Iraq policy (at least until late in the campaign when it was too late). Today, when a supporter of the Iraq War takes the Bush Administration to task, too many Democrats are fixated on the Karl Rove leaked Plame's name so-called scandal. This is dumb strategy. First, the Plame scandal is the greatest of inside the beltway politics. Nobody on Main Street USA gives a damn. Second, even if it's a scandal--and I'll wait for more facts to come out before ordaining it such--it's a minor one compared to the risky policy of going to war in Iraq and the mismanagement of the war after the initial invasion. Or if you don't want to talk about Iraq, then focus on Bush's wild spending policies and all the other disasters he's administered. That's where the opposition should concentrate--not on their Lex Luther Wet Dream Karl Rove fantasies. An Adams EducationLike I've said before, Powell's Books web site is fantastic, especially the interview with author's section. There's an interesting one with David McCullough who wrote the Adams biography everyone raved about a couple years ago. Later in the interview McCulloch talks about the ugly state of education in our country: I feel strongly that we've got to revise how we teach the teachers. I would abolish schools of education. I think what every teacher ought to have is a good liberal arts education. And there are signs of hope. At the University of Oklahoma, for example, you can no longer graduate with a degree in education; you have to have a major. But there are also terrible setbacks. The state of Alabama has stopped the teaching of history through the first eight grades. State-wide, no more history. One of the problems with having a teacher that doesn't know the subject he or she is teaching is that they are more dependent therefore on the textbooks, and the textbooks, though there are some exceptions, are appallingly bad. Dreary, deadly — it's as if they're designed to kill any interest you might have in history. And you can't love something you don't know any more than you can love someone you don't know. If the teacher doesn't know any history, how is he or she really going to love it? We know from our own experiences that it's the ones that really love what they're teaching that teach you the most.
Iranian ProtestsThere were protests in Iran demanding the release of Iranian journalist Akbar Ganji. Various pro Iranian democracy web sites are reporting that the protests are growing with more people joining in. That would be great but I've found those web sites to be unreliable in the past so take them with a grain of salt. Tuesday, July 12, 2005More Movie TheatersI'm not the only one to complain about movie theater experiences. From Q&A section of RogerEbert.com: Q. People seem to be blaming the movies for the slump in the box office this year. I feel it's the actual experience of going to the theater that makes people stay away. When I saw "War of the Worlds," the projection was slightly off and fuzzy, and certain scenes weren't framed properly. That was nothing compared to the theatergoers who were talking and directing glib remarks to the screen. One answered his phone and started talking loudly.Going to the movies is my favorite thing in the world. But now incidents like that happen about four out of five times I go. Isn't there anything theater chains can do to promote quiet screenings and make going to the movies fun again?Mark Donahue, Philadelphia A. I've received a lot of feedback just like yours. People are also angry at the commercials they're forced to sit through. I've heard from people who now mostly attend "art theaters," not because they dislike commercial films, but because they know the audience behavior will be more appropriate. Monday, July 11, 2005I am SamSpeakOkay, I've finally finished I am Charlotte Simmons, a book some call a nearly 700-page Victorian scolding. Actually, I probably liked it more than most critics but Wolfe's collegian opus is flawed. The titular character is not unbelievable as some complain. I've known women like her; just because most of us are libertines today does not mean we all are. I was not bothered by Charlotte's naivete or even by Wolfe's prudishness. I disagree with Wolfe's horror at promiscuity but it doesn't mean I couldn't enjoy a book which has that viewpoint. I could even believe Charlotte would be traumatized by losing her virginity to the roughish frat boy, Hoyt Tharp. What was difficult to believe was that Charlotte would have a complete mental breakdown as a result. Or rather, it was fine she had a breakdown but I had no desire to read about it for 200 pages. By the twenty-thousandth word describing Charlotte's depression, I wanted to grab the freshman by her book spine and snap her in two. Apparently, Wolfe's depiction of Charlotte's depression is based on his own bout with what Churchill called "The Black Dog"--a malady Wolfe suffered after having a heart attack in the 90s. But in I am Charlotte Simmons Wolfe drove the point into the ground, repeating himself just as he repeated phrases he used in previous books such as a man being "in the season of his rising sap." Wolfe did not have much interesting to say about the theme. It was not a rich vein to tap and it obscured his other more important point of the book: the vilification of intelligence in our culture. The cool people on campus were not the intelligent. In fact to be cool, the characters had to hide their intelligence or their thirst for knowledge. It is this part of American culture which is putting our country at risk. Charlotte, my dear, it's okay to have sex with as many men or women as you like--even with Hoyt Tharp--but don't dumb yourself down to do it. It is not sex that is screwing up our society, it is the idea it is uncool to read literature, study math or be interested science. A Death ForetoldThe Monorail project is on life support and it can now be told how the feeding tubes will be disconnected. Key politicians and business officials have held official and unofficial meetings in the last week. The establishment, which has kept its distance during the formative stages of the monorail, will now actively work to kill it. Because the Monorail Board is a creature of the state legislature, that is the body that will ultimately kill it early next year. Certain Seattle area state legislators will make a show of supporting, or at least showing sympathetic concern for the Monorail, while quietly telling other key legislators from outside the region to kill the project. The civic leadership of Seattle will do the same thing. That they can and will be doing this is, of course, the fault of the current Monorail Board, which continues to be in denial of just how dire things are for the project. In fact, their denial and arrogance has driven some of these Seattle legislators to adopt the strategy described above. Unless the Board opens itself up to outside help, the project is dead. The good news is found in the Dick Conway poll in Sunday's Seattle Times. Interestingly, the media depicts the poll as gloom and doom for the project since 52% are now against the monorail. But that's a remarkably low figure considering the crazy financing scheme offered and the resulting horrible publicity it caused. Remarkably, 45% of those surveyed still want to save the Monorail. The newsies will say 45% is a remarkable drop from the 60%+ who voted against the recall initiative. However, many who voted against that initiative did so not because they supported the Monorail but because they thought that particular initiative was the wrong way to kill the Monorial--it was bad policy whether you were for the Monorail or not. The 52% against the Monorail is just a 2% swing from the vote that created the Monorail project to begin with. If the Board makes sensible moves, they can build from the remarkable 45% base shown in the poll. If they don't, then there will indeed be a large drop in support. The clock is ticking for the Board. The execution plans have been made. February is just around the corner. Batman BeginsI haven't seen many movies in the theater recently but went and saw the remarkably good Batman Begins over the weekend. When waiting for the movie to begin, watching at least a dozen vapid commercials, I understood why movies are in an historic slump at the box office. At home, I rarely see an ad since we tape most shows and watch them later, fast forwarding through the commercials. As I sat there becoming increasingly annoyed at the loud, dumb, transparently manipulative ads attacking my senses, which were attacked further when a woman drowning in perfume sat next to us and thought of some of the lame-ass summer movies I've seen in the past, I was just about to give up on films altogether. And then Batman Begins began. It is a movie which recognizes words are important. Dialogue has a purpose with character saying lines earlier in the movie which become important later on. It creates a fantastic world but one which is logical within its own fantasy. Batman Begins is one of the best movies I've seen in a long time. Christopher Nolan has now made two great movies--Memento and Batman Begins. Friday, July 08, 2005Yale Produces More FoolsIt's not enough that Yale provided us with our current disastrous president and his inane opponent in the last election, they also gave us a professor and law graduate who wrote a silly op-ed in yesterday's Seattle P.I. The thesis by Law professor Paul Gewirtz and law school graduate Chad Golder is that people complaining about an activist court don't know what the word "activist" means. "In order to move beyond this labeling game," they write, "we've identified one reasonably objective and quantifiable measure of a judge's activism, and we've used it to asses the records of the justices on the current Supreme Court...How often has each justice voted to strike down a law passed by Congress." But it is not activist to strike a law passed by Congress if said law is unconstitutional. That's the whole concern of people who make accusations that judge's are activists--they are creating law that does not exist in the Constitution. I wish the Court had struck down at least one other Congressional law--the First Amendment smashing campaign finance legislation that Congress passed and Bush signed into law. London LessonsBlair's short speech in London hit a number of important points, including this: When they try to intimidate us, we will not be intimidated. When they seek to change our country or our way of life by these methods, we will not be changed. When they try to divide our people or weaken our resolve, we will not be divided and our resolve will hold firm. After September 11, I wrote, Those that perpetrated the attacks do not have the military power to defeat the United States, only we can defeat ourselves. is true that they can strike terror into our population and extract significant casualties, but they cannot occupy us or defeat us as a country. The United States will not be overthrown by these enemies. However, we can do the job for them. It has been invigorating to see most of the country come together and push forward nearly as one. However, times of unanimity are the most dangerous for a democracy. That is when our rights are most at risk. I hear reporters, commentators, politicians, and every day citizens talk about freedoms to which they say we have become too accustomed and which must now be curtailed. This is still true and Blair seems to get it. Holding people incommunicado, thwarting the Constitution, not allowing international students and business people into our country--these are acts of defeat. The bombings in London, as horrific as they are, show the Islamic fascists are weak. They haven't committed any acts of terrorism in the United States in four years. In London and Madrid, their methods, although killing and injuring hundreds, are relatively crude. To disband our economic advantages and civil rights because of this rag-tag group of losers is to show real weakness. Thursday, July 07, 2005London CorrespondentLondoners, from all accounts, calmly go about their business. SamSpeak's London Correspondent reports, "Large pockets of normality throughout the city." The response appears to be to bombers, "F*** off" and to make drink and drink a pint at the pub as usual. In tribute, I'm off to drink a pint myself. Say It Isn't So, NateI was going to write about Nate McMillan's leaving for the dark forces of Paul Allen but SupersonicSoul has it covered. LondonI am off to a half-day meeting but the first speaker is Slade Gorton, he of the 911 Commission. If he has anything interesting to say in light of London attacks, I'll let you know. And, of course, we are trying to make contact with the SamSpeak London correspondent. More later. More Whither Monorail?The question now is what is to become of the monorail. The project could be scraped and we could continue to collect the license tab tax for another two years which is the estimated amount of time it would take to cover sunk costs. Some are saying let's find another revenue source so the project can be completed. Others advocate sending it out for re-bid. I have talked to others who are suggesting the money be diverted to the viaduct project or to extending light rail to Northgate. I have heard from another that we should use the available funds to instead extend the current tourist-oriented monorail down to the two sports stadiums. I'm not sure I know the right answer to the question. Anyone else know? Whither the Monorail?Someone I know who was at a business meeting on the monorail tells me the State Legislature will put a bullet in the back of the project's head in February when it reconvenes. I don't know if this is true but the future for the monorail is bleak, unfortunately. A reader points to Horsesass.org's defense of Joel Horn and Tom Weeks who claims, "Horn and Weeks acknowledged their failure, and took full responsibility. They deserve an apology from those who attacked their motives." The problem is the complaint about Horn and Weeks isn't merely about motives but about results. If Horn had said 16 months ago that the shortfall of revenue by a third (they got their projection numbers from Sound Transit but it was the monorail's responsibility to check them) makes it impossible to do the monorail they had promised in a responsible way, then he would have deserved credit. Instead, Horn and Weeks engaged in a lengthy, secretive negotiation that resulted in a plan no rational person would accept. After the plan was made public, they paid for a full page advertisement in the newspaper making false assertions about their misbegotten plan. If Horn and Weeks had been forthright more than a year ago, the monorail project might have been saveable via new sources of funding or changes to the project. Now, after their acts of the last year, they've lost public support and the monorail may be lost. It's amazing how often people don't realize doing the right thing is usually the strategic thing as well. Redistricting is the DevilMore evidence that redistricting which has created a U.S. House of Represenatives comprised of ideological morons is wreaking havoc on policy: Twelve years ago, amid heated rhetoric over job losses and heavy union pressure, the House passed the North American Free Trade Agreement with 102 Democratic votes. This month, as President Bush pushes the far less economically significant Central American Free Trade Agreement, he will be lucky to get more than 10." And, of course, much of this is partisan mischief, "Cardin and other free-trade Democrats concede that many of the Democratic opponents are motivated by partisan politics: They want to see Bush lose a major legislative initiative or, at the very least, make Republicans from districts hit hard by international trade take a dangerous vote in favor of a deal their constituents oppose. Dozens of Republicans in districts dependent on the textile industry, the sugar growers or small manufacturers have already said they will vote against the bill. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) privately warned Democrats last month that a vote for CAFTA is a vote to stay in the minority." Of course, these are the same politicians who are saying we must help Africa and morally preen during the Live 8 publicity. But they only want to send them aid and not truly help them through trade. Wednesday, July 06, 2005Ideas MachinesIt's interesting that substantive discussion in the Democratic Party is happening on group blogs like TPM Cafe rather than in the halls of Congress or the Democratic Party Headquarters. For example, here's an interesting discussion on redesigning Social Security. Now, one may agree or disagree with the ideas but at least it's a substantive discussion. These discussions will have far more salutary effect than the silly we-need-to-change-how-we-frame-issues discussion--the whole overrated "Don't Think of an Elephant" approach. In the end, substance must come before spin. Technological AccelerationNew Scientist has an interesting article on whether the rate of technological change is accelerating, has peaked or is actually relatively low compared to previous centuries. The pessimistic view from Jonathan Huebner: Extrapolating Huebner's global innovation curve just two decades into the future, the innovation rate plummets to medieval levels. "We are approaching the 'dark ages point', when the rate of innovation is the same as it was during the Dark Ages," Huebner says. "We'll reach that in 2024." The opposite view from John Smart (good name for a scientist): Smart agrees with Kurzweil that we are rocketing toward a technological "singularity" - a point sometime between 2040 and 2080 where change is so blindingly fast that we just can't predict where it will go. Asian PolesI met with a couple of Poles who are creating a venture capital fund based in the Gdansk area. In making their pitch they called Poland the "China of Europe." Poland, of course, is the site of much outsourcing from Western Europe as well as for investment. In fact, only the London Stock Exchange had more IPOs than Poland's in the last year. Tuesday, July 05, 2005New CitizensI had the privilege of attending and helping out at the swearing in ceremony for new citizens at Seattle Center yesterday as a Board member of the Ethnic Heritage Council. One of the enjoyments of the event was hearing all the various politicians and dignitaries attending tell me that out of all of their responsibilities of the year, this is by far their favorite. I stood behind the Navy band as they prepared to play and the conductor, in addressing his band as they prepared to play, told them, "I think you'll really like this event--it's different than all the others we'll play this year." And it's true. There is something endearing and remarkable watching the 600 or so new citizens, hailing from 79 different countries, ranging in age from 18 to 83. Yes, the oldest new citizen was a woman from Romania named Maria who said her father had been imprisoned by the communists and she never felt safe until she came to America. At one point during the ceremony, the Mayor read off the names of each country from which a new citizen was being sworn in--Syria, the Philippines, Somalia, Mexico, Italy, the UK, and a host of others. The new citizens from those countries rose to their feet, waving their American flags and cheering wildly. Their oath, of course, is not to a ruler or to a religion, but to the Constitution; a document of law, sometimes seemingly as fragile as the parchment on which it is written--under fire from expansive readers of the Supreme Court and strident occupiers of the White House--other times strong enough to bond us through the centuries, guarded today by the enthusiasm and will of new Americans. It's in good hands. Friday, July 01, 2005Actions Not WordsIn an interview with the Times of London, Bush was asked about Climate Change and answered, "There’s an interesting confluence now between dependency upon fossil fuels from a national economic security perspective, as well as the consequences of burning fossil fuels for greenhouse gases." It's interesting he makes the point about the confluence but it's too bad the energy bill didn't go very far in dealing with the problem by, for example, raising the miles per gallon requirement on vehicles, including on SUVs. He was led from the courtNot to steal from Andrew Sullivan but in case you missed it, read this great obit of a British lawyer from the Daily Telegraph. During his legal career, Pakenham became something of a legend, and, 25 years on, accounts of his exploits are still current. During his appearance before an irascible and unpopular judge in a drugs case, the evidence, a bag of cannabis, was produced. The judge, considering himself an expert on the subject, said to Pakenham, with whom he had clashed during the case: "Come on, hand the exhibit up to me quickly." Then he proceeded to open the package. Inserting the contents in his mouth, he chewed it and announced: "Yes, yes of course that is cannabis. Where was the substance found, Mr Pakenham?" The reply came swiftly, if inaccurately: "In the defendant's anus, my Lord."Pakenham's final appearance in court has been variously recorded. As defence counsel in a complicated fraud case, he was due to address the court during the afternoon session, and had partaken of a particularly well-oiled lunch."Members of the jury," he began, "it is my duty as defence counsel to explain the facts of this case on my client's behalf; the Judge will guide you and advise you on the correct interpretation of the law and you will then consider your verdict. Unfortunately," Pakenham went on, "for reasons which I won't go into now, my grasp of the facts is not as it might be. The judge is nearing senility; his knowledge of the law is pathetically out of date, and will be of no use in assisting you to reach a verdict. While by the look of you, the possibility of you reaching a coherent verdict can be excluded." He was led from the court. Social Securitizing of Foreign PolicyThe Democrats are understandably upset at President Bush' speech on Iraq the other day. But as with Social Security, they are content to try to make political hay rather than offer constructive alternatives. John Kerry said after the speech, "What we need is a policy to get it right in Iraq. The way you honor the troops is not to bring up the memory of 9/11." Hard to argue with Kerry's points but John, what's your solution? What is the policy alternative you offer for Iraq? Not one Democrat in Congress offered a solution other than those on the far left who want to immediately pull out all the troops. It was a mistake for Bush to go to war in Iraq, one which he further compounded by mishandling the war. But it's not enough for the opposition to say Bush was wrong in going to war and in handling the war. They need to start offering real remedies. One, it's the right thing to do and second, it's smart politics to have a foreign policy--to give people a reason to vote for you three years from now, to show you are serious about leading the country. Interestingly, the only member of the House or Senate who I saw quoted offering an alternative to Bush's continue as we are policy was John McCain, who called for more troops in Iraq. Big Bird Kills ChildrenDavid Broder points out that in preserving the funding of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, there is less money for health care, training programs and job training. Broder says, "...sponsors of the amendment to bail out public television had no choice but to find the money elsewhere in the same bill, and that meant cutting programs and services." Democrats complained the real problem was the spending limit on the overall Labor, HHS Appropriations Bill. This overall spending cap forced these Hobbsian choices, they claim. I, of course, would cut funding for CPB regardless of spending limits since in the age of nearly unlimited broadcast choices, government money for CPB is unnecessary. However, if you do want to fund PBS, NPR and the rest, it is important for the media to point out, and for politicians to understand, that all spending requires choices. In this case, if you restore funding for CPB, you cut education funding. If you decide to increase the overall Appropriations Bill, you must raise taxes, cut somewhere else in the federal budget or increase the already large federal deficit. Our legislators shouldn't complain about this; making these choices is their job. Of course, the Republican Congress has screwed up the budget process so much that the process itself is in need of a fix.
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