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known is finite, the unknown infinite; intellectually we stand on an islet in the midst of an illimitable ocean of inexplicability. Our business in every generation is to relcaim a little more land." --T.H. Huxley |
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Monday, June 26, 2006Ed KaplanMy Dad passed away Sunday morning after suffering from Lewy Body Dementia. It is a horrible disease especially when it hits someone whose life is so centered around the mind as was my Dad's. Here's his obituary to be published in the Bellingham Herald:
Friday, June 23, 2006Surface Temperatures and Bad SummariesAs I'm sure you've seen, the National Academy of Sciences released their report on surface temperatures on earth over the last 2000 years. Depending on who you read, you'll get wildly different summaries of what's in the report. I actually read the executive summary and here's what I got out of it. First, surface temperatures have been increasing over the last 400 years. Here's the end of the executive summary on this:
So, that's pretty straightforward. They also conclude that it is plausible that surface temperatures were higher "during the last 25 years than during any period of comparable length since AD 900." However, because temperature data is less accurate for more than 400 years ago, the report hedges its bets. The report does not say one way or another whether this warming is due to humans. But, they do say "Surface temperature reconstructions for periods prior to the industrial era are only one of multiple lines of evidence supporting the conclusion that climatic warming is occurring in response to human activities, and they are not the primary evidence." The left is quick to say the debate is over on humans causing climate change and some on the right are just as quick to say the evidence is not there that humans are causing global climate change. We do not know definitively that humans are causing climate change but there is much supporting evidence to suggest it is so. And, prudence suggests that, until we have better data, we should work to a) figure out realistic ways to curb human influence; b) continue our efforts in understanding climates and climate change (it is a complex system and by "complex" I am referring to the mathematical use of the term. Complexity and chaos is something we are making remarkable gains in understanding); and c) figure out ways to adapt to climate change since we may not be able to control it whether from human or natural inputs. Unfortunately, as in too many things, the left and right are too busy beating each other up to stop and think about the problem logically. One final note: The graph in the executive summary is very interesting. The graph "shows a compilation of large-scale surface temperature reconstructions from different research groups, each using its own methodology and selection of proxies, as well as the instrumental record (beginning in 1856) of global mean surface temperature." Interestingly, it was warmer than it is today at about 1000 AD. Or, to be more precise, some of the temperature reconstructions show it being warmer back then. For example, the tree rings study shows it being warmer 1000 years ago. Of course, the report notes that data more than 400 years ago is less reliable so this could be wrong, and, in fact, some climate scientists say their data shows that it is hotter now than 1000 AD (and more important, that the rate of increase is greater today than at any other time in the last 1000 years). Others say that warm period 1000 years ago was only localized for certain regions. Either way, it's obvious that even as we work to curb human impacts, more analysis and data is needed on historical climate records. Thursday, June 22, 2006Popping the Realtors BubbleThere may or may not be a housing bubble but the protective bubble the realtors industry has surrounded themselves with is getting closer and closer to being popped. The Internet has started to breach the realtors defenses and now a growing awareness of what a rip off the real estate broker business is threatens them even more. Freakanomics.com reports:
The problem for the realtors, of course, is that people understand the real estate business all too well. People understand brokers are not needed, or certainly not at the prices they are charging. They will soon become an endangered species. All Robots All The TimeYou can't get away from the robot stories nowadays. The Times of London reports on a code of ethics for machines that a group of scientists plans to publish next month.
Of course, as is in everything that humans touch, people start worrying about sex:
I'm not sure what limits Christensen (a perfect name for someone worried about robot sex, btw) is referring to. Does he mean the robots should not be made too beautiful so that we don't get carried away with having sex with machines or is he worried that the robots won't be pretty enough. In other words ,he doesn't want us having sex with ugly machines. Guess we'll have to wait for the code of ethics to find out. Wednesday, June 21, 2006Hey YaOutkast's Hey Ya was an amazing song in that its popularity crossed all boundaries: black and white, R&B and hipster alternatives, old and young, everyone liked it. Now, the Charlie Brown set dances to it. Straight LinesOne of my favorite fallacies I see people commit is taking a line on a graph that is going up (or down) and assuming it will continue on that trajectory forever and ever. Al Gore makes that mistake in his assumptions of fossil fuel use and what the impact will be on the environment and climate. Ray Kurzweil points this out in an online chat at the Washington Post.
Of course, some say Kurzweil makes the same mistake with his projections of accelerating technological change. At any rate, as Kurzweil notes, there are lots of reasons to curtail our use of fossil fuels with the risk of climate change being one of them. Windows RobotsMicrosoft is readying robotics software which is another sign of the dawning of the age of robots as I pointed out earlier in the week. Soon, at least in your lifetime (if your healthy wealthy and wise), you'll experience cars that drive you, robots that mow your lawn, vacuum your house and a whole host of other activities. Of course, Dave Nelson might say Microsoft's entry into robotics is a sign of the death of the age of robotics. Maybe there'll be Mac robots. Tuesday, June 20, 2006More TortureThe military report, such as it is, by the Pentagon on certain allegations of torture by some units (the report did not investigate all the military units that are alleged to have used torture) was released yesterday. Spencer Ackerman at TNR's The Plank asks a good question about the policy of keeping prisoners in cells too small to lay down in or stand fully:
As Andrew Sullivan and others have pointed out, now that two U.S. soldiers have been taken by Al Quada, we are in a much more difficult position to complain when they torture our troops. This is not to excuse Al Quada's torture or to say that what the Bush Administration does is equal to what the Islamic Theocrats do. It is merely to point out that in the battle over minds around the world, when we complain about the treatment of Americans being tortured, the rest of the world will say "what about your use of torture?" Personality Above SubstanceTwo seemingly disparate articles in the Washington Post and in Salon are actually about the same thing--placing personality above substance. First, the Washington Post piece about the Internet:
The same day, King Kaufmann (sports journalists by day, porn star name by night) in Salon writes about the travesty that was Game 5 of the NBA Championship:
Good luck, indeed. That's what bothers me the most about the NBA--the unfair advantage superstars are given by referees. Don't get me wrong--I love Dwayne Wade, but I don't like watching games that are decided by which team has the most popular player. It's nearly driven me away from watching the NBA, especially at playoff time (but not quite). The NBA theory of favoring the superstar at the detriment of all else, applies to much else in life. Matt Stone MemoSouth Park, The Movie, Bigger, Long, Uncut, was the best movie of 1999 and one of the funniest and most important movies of all time. Editing it so the flick would meet the approval of the MPAA was apparently an ongoing process. The Hot Blog has obtained a memo from Matt Stone to the MPAA Board itemizing the changes they would make so the film could be rated (hat tip to Jim Emerson. It's hilarious. Because none of the memo is worksafe I'll only quote the PS at the end of the memo from Matt Stone: "PS: This is my favorite memo ever." Here's the full memo Monday, June 19, 2006Golden SombreroI had the pleasure of seeing in person Barry Bond strike out three times in a game, twice to that strike out artist, Jamie Moyer. Friday, June 16, 2006Up NorthI'm in and out of town again today and yesterday but with Iraq all the rage in Congress I'll just point to Iraq the Model for analysis.
Well, that clears everything up, doesn't it. Actually, read his whole post. It's interesting. Thursday, June 15, 2006Build Your Own RobotI was at the bookstore yesterday and there was a whole section of books on how to build your own robot. I bring this up both because I think it would be fun to build your own robot and also to point out that this is yet another sign of the coming big technological changes. If building robots is now a do-it-yourself project, then clearly we are entering a new age. Look, there's even a Robot for Dummies book available. The Rich and TechnologyMeanwhile, although it is human nature for groups of people wanting to tell other people what they can and can't do, it's become more and more difficult to do so. Witness this story about wealthy couples coming to the United States to select which gender their baby will be:
Of course, this article is also an argument against Kurzweil's utopian view of the future in The Singularity is Near. The wealthy will get access to the future's uber-powerful new technologies. The question is will they bring the rest of us with them, destroy us or abandon us? Wednesday, June 14, 2006Something's Happening HereMaybe it's the strange smell of thunderstorms in the Seattle air (an unusual occurrence here in the summer) or maybe it's the fact the U.S. stock market has gone down more than 10% in the last few weeks and that stock markets all over the world are falling like brokers on ledges from the 1930s. Or, maybe it's that unemployment jumped to (the still low) level of 5.1% here in Washington State last month. Or perhaps it's that GlobalInsight has determined that houses in Seattle are overvalued by 34%. Or, maybe it's just that the world turns and night follows day and it sure seems like dusk is about to hit. Our only hope is that it's summer and the days are long. The Future, Mr. Gittes, The FutureCNN.com is doing a series of articles on the coming technological changes. Here's the introductory piece with the vision of Ray Kurzweil coming next, followed by those who take a more alarmist view of the coming technological transformation.
Such a potential dark future on earth may be why Stephen Hawking said in a speech yesterday, "The survival of the human race depends on its ability to find new homes elsewhere in the universe because there's an increasing risk that a disaster will destroy the Earth." This may be the most exciting or terrifying time to be alive in the history of man, depending on your point of view and the size of your pocketbook. Have a DanishI had the pleasure of attending a lunch yesterday where the Prime Minister of Denmark spoke and took questions. He said all the usual things about being a "staunch ally" of the United States, finding new ways to cooperate with the U.S. on climate change (25% of Denmark's energy is from windmills and 10% from biofuels) and how we're such great trade partners. The U.S. is Denmark's fourth-largest export market above such traditional partners as Norway. In fact, exports from from Denmark to the United States increased 35% over the last year proving that U.S. consumers continue their buying binge and that Muslims in the U.S. apparently didn't get the memo on boycotting Danish products. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the lunch is how open the Prime Minister was to taking questions from the audience and press. People didn't have to hand in written questions that were chosen by the moderator. He just took them as they came and answered them or said he didn't have a comment as he saw fit. Very refreshing. Deficit Credit and Dark LiningsWith all my harping about debt, I should be fair and point out that this year's deficit will again shrink due to an expanding economy bringing in much higher tax revenue. Investor's Business Daily reports "The Congressional Budget Office said receipts have risen faster over the first eight months of fiscal '06 than in any other such period over the past 25 years  except for last year's 15.5% jump." This, of course, leads to a smallerdeficitt, $233 billion year-to-year compared to $276 billion last year. The deficit would be even smaller if spending was under control. Although tax receipts are up from last year so too is spending, which is growing at a 7.9% clip over last year's expenditures. Because I can find a dark cloud in any silver lining, I'm compelled to report that increases in spending will only get worse in future years due to entitlement pressures inMedicaree, social security and all the rest.
Morning in America, meet storm clouds. Tuesday, June 13, 2006Danish Prime MinisterThe Danish Prime Minister is in town today. You may recall the Mohammed cartoon controversy. Journalist and provocutuer Christopher Hithchens reports: "... in the last quarter, Danish exports to the United States have increased by 17 percent and that, overall, the Danish economy has more than compensated for the results of the unjustified Muslim boycott." Just an fyi. Ferguson's Reasons to WorryHarvard economist Niall Ferguson wrote about reasons to worry about America's debt problem in last weekend's NY Times. He notes what we've noted here many times (653 times if you are keeping count):
As the world turns, I believe is the name for the soap opera. Browsing in 3DThis is cool: you can browse the web in 3D. Shouldn't the web site be creatureoftheblacklagoon.com? Here's a sample 3D browser. Jeez, I wonder which industry will take this technology and run with it? Rhymes with corn, I believe. Stupidity NominationJohn Dickinson's piece in Slate about Daily Kos is a front runner for this year's stupidest paragraph award:
I'm always amused when someone on the left or right thinks the other side is full of ill-intent and the side, even if somehow flawed, has only the best of intentions. They view the political opposition as Lex Luther--evil incarnate--rather than as people with differing views. Dickerson offers no proof for his assertion that the right wing wishes the press didn't exist. He writes this paragraph as if it's accepted science, like gravity or evolution, er, uh, maybe that's the wrong example But, anyway, as someone who reads blogs and journals of both the left and right, I can tell you that the right wing media critiques I read are just like the left--they want a press which will better inform people. Now, we might not agree on what it is people should be informed about, but like Markos Moulitsas, the right wing bloggers intent is to make the country better. John Dickerson is Slate's chief political correspondent. He needs to be demoted. Monday, June 12, 2006China Grove
According to the Shanghai News, in May, China banks, " extended 209.4 billion yuan in loans during May alone, nearly double that of the same month in 2005." So the Chinese economy is still going strong. On the other hand, word is that a significant percentage of bank loans in China are non-performing. Will the emerging economic power of the 21st Century have a hiccup soon. Hold your breath.
Friday, June 09, 2006Mrs. Wade, Meet Reality
Um, Mrs. Wade, that’s right, only one of your daughters will abstain from sex until she is married, just like you did. Apparently despite approval of the vaccine lots of people may not use it:
These kinds of attitudes will be a big issue in the coming years with all the new technologies coming out. It’s something that Ray Kurzweil didn’t address deeply enough in his book The Singularity is Near. Ludditeism and fundamentalism (two sides of the same coin) will play retarding and unpredictable roles in the use and acceptance of new technologies coming down the pike. Thursday, June 08, 2006Help, I'm Broke and...The American consumer is determined not to outdone by state and local governments in racking up debts like Charles Barkley in Vegas. The increase in consumer borrowing reached its highest level in nearly a year last month and total consumer credit is also at a record $2..17 trillion. These loans don’t include mortgages or other real estate associated loans. Hey Americans, buy yourself another drink and hit the craps tables. Cleaning UpI’ve never understood the rationale for pulling out of Iraq—we created the mess and we are obligated to clean it up. It is true, however, that the current military and political strategy is not effective as David Ignatius in the Washington Post pointed out yesterday.
The rose tinted wearers are forever telling us the media are only showing the bad and not all the good that is happening in Iraq. And while I don’t doubt this is true, there is no disputing there’s more than enough bad to show. Further, the Iraqis themselves know it and so does the U.S. military. According to Ignatius:
So what to do? Pulling out is still only a move of selfishness. At best, it would lead to even more short-term mayhem and at worst to a Khmer Rouge Cambodia scenario. Ignatius suggests getting the new Iraq government out of the Green Zone and into public Baghdad. I don’t know the answer but the current administration is unlikely to find one unless they come to terms with what is really going on in Iraq. Wednesday, June 07, 2006Self Driving CarsI mentioned these a while back and said they were coming sooner than you thought, perhaps within 10 years. At the recent Singularity Conference at Stanford, Sebastian Thrun, Director of the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Lab, gave a presentation on self-driving cars. Thrun said self-driving cars capable of being used in everyday life will be possible within six years, sooner than the ten I predicted. Here's a video of last year's Grand Challenge Race of robot cars. Remember, when watching these cars that no human is driving them. They are driving themselves. The ending quote is downright awe inspiring. "Stanley (the name of the car who won the race--only five actually finished the course) becomes the first vehicle in history to drive 132 miles...by itself. " The 2006 race took place in the desert. Now that they have proven they can make it through that course, the next hurdle is a self-driving car that can drive in traffic. Thus, next year's race takes place in an urban environment. Cab drivers better start looking for another line of work. Rioting ChristiansShh, don't let the Christians see this or they'll be rioting in the streets before we know it. A Penny for Your Thoughts, er, Dollar
I'm hearing lots of whispering from international folks recently that the dollar is headed for a cliff soon. In addition, lots of other people are piling on too. The Russian Finance Minister last month expressed his concern about the U.S. dollar's stabilty as a the world's reserve currency. Russia plans to have the Ruble fully convertible by July. With high oil prices, Putin and his guard are flying high and feeling smug. They would love to see oil sold and bought in something other than dollars but I wouldn't count on it being in Rubles anytime soon. Of course, if the dollar does nose dive as some think is likely, I suppose anything is possible.
Shanghai'd Da VinciChina Business newsletter reports:
Actually, that's an improvement. Last year the movie would have been on DVD on the streets of Shanghai before the film was even released in the theaters. Tuesday, June 06, 2006Ten Things I Hate About the Ten CommandmentsHave I mentioned Youtube is one of the great inventions of the 21st Century? Here's more proof. Apartment Bubble WatchSomeone I know is on the hunt for an apartment because their current apartment building is being turned into condos. She was telling me that searching for an apartment is like it was a year ago buying a house. Ten people will be after the same apartment and the landlords can pick and choose and up the rent accordingly. If the housing bubble ever pops, it's all these condos transformed from apartments that will blow up first. Prudence in the Age of the IndividualTechnology is empowering the individual in all sorts of remarkable ways. This is good but it also has its down side as we see with terrorists having access to powerfully destructive technologies. The worry about this access is one of the rationales the Bush Adminstration uses to justify spying without warrents and all the rest of their intrusive apparatus. It's probably inevitable that the advent of easily accessible powerful technology will mean we will end up giving up some of our privacy rights. But if we do give up our privacy rights than we will need to strengthen other judicial protections to counterbalance the loss of these other rights. That's the most troublesome aspect of the Bush approach--he wants us to give up both privacy and legal protections. He can spy on us but he can also hold us incommunicado. You can't have both. Bush's Continued Tortured LogicThe LA Times has the goods on the Bush Administration's continued attempts to evade the McCain Amendment on torturing and degrading treatment of detainees. You may recall this amendment was approved by Congress by an overwhelming vote. Of course, when Bush signed the bill into law, he wrote in a side note that he is not bound by the law. I'd like to be able to try that trick the next time I get a speeding ticket (not that I've ever had one, mind you). The McCain amendment specified that the Army Field Manual, the standard for treatment of all detainees, would forbid cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment of detainees in US custody. Bush wrote in his side statement that he would be ignoring the law and it's not surprising that the LA Times reports:
Some in Congress, the State Department and even the Defense Department's own lawyers are objecting. But as long as Bush is president and feels his powers as commander in chief allow him to ignore any law, it doesn't matter a damn whit what anyone else thinks. Monday, June 05, 2006Housing Bubble WatchA block and a half away from our house a builder tore down a small house and built a new McMansion. They had an open house on Sunday. Price for the place was $700,000. There's no other house on the block worth even two-thirds that price. The only other house within four blocks that comes close to that price is another McMansion that was built last year. Nothing Else Going OnIraq, Iran, the deficit, Tom Cruise. Lots of important stuff going on out there. But what issue does Bush and the Republicans concentrate on this week: the huge threat of gay marriage. Gays are the new Jews (for the fundamentalist Christian wing of the Republican party, for the Muslims and lots of others, the Jews are the new Jews)-an always available scapegoat and handy political device. The Government RulesNot to give you the idea I'm a raving libertarian or anything but this is getting ridiculous:
I really don't need my taxpayer money being spent to tell me how much food I can eat. Seriously, what business is it of government to tell a private company how much food to serve? When I go out to eat I often don't gobble down the whole meal and instead ask for a doggy bag, eating the leftovers for lunch the next day, which saves me money and time. If others can't help themselves, eat too much, get fat and die of a heart attack, why should government be involved? Those overeaters are doing us a favor by dying early and putting less of a strain on social security and medicare. There's no support for limited government among our populace and everyone, especially and including the current Republicans in the White House and Congress, are all for more government interference in our lives. And when everyone wants more and more government, more and more government is what you get--whether it is spying on your phone calls and emails or telling you how much you are allowed to eat. Thursday, June 01, 2006Evidence of the Coming SingularityI wrote about The Singularity is Near before I traipsed off to Australia. I plan to write more about this book in the future when I have a little more time. I've found, however, that since reading it I look at the world differently and notice evidence of the possible coming singularity more often. For example, check out these stories: Honda Says Brain Waves Control Robots Soldiers Bond with Battlefield Robots Nanotube Brush Goes in the Record Books This is just from one day and a quick scan of the science news on msnbc.com. Of course, there's much to be skeptical about Ray Kurzweil's theories in the Singularity is Near and much that I disagree with. More on all this later. Third Rail or Third PartyPeggy Noonan can soar with rhetoric and dive into looniness, sometimes in the same sentence. At any rate, her most recent column on the possibility of a third party I found compelling even though it may be wrong. I especially agree with her on this:
I think that's exactly right. The parties mainly exist today to split the spoils and to enjoy power for its own sake rather than to do something constructive with it. Yes, there are differences between Republicans and Democrats but Noonan captures perfectly how this doesn't matter anymore:
I have long thought a third part rising was possible but in recent years have had less confidence it would happen. More than likely, people like myself who are fiscally prudent, socially liberal and carefully internationalist, are a small minority. Until we feel the consequences of bad governing, it's unlikely the electorate will do anything out of the ordinary. Millionaires, Swimming Pools, Seattle Business NewsI learned Wednesday morning that half the circulation of the Puget Sound Business Journal is made up of millionaires. Now this wouldn't be very impressive if they only have a circulation of two people but, in fact, the PSBJ's circulation is far greater than that--it's one of the larger local business newspapers in the country. So, clearly we've got a lot of millionaires in this neck of the woods. Of course, I'm not sure how they came up with the figure. If it was done by a survey perhaps all those business people fibbed a little wanting to make themselves appear richer than they are. On the other hand, if it is based on total assets, and with the cost of housing here, I could see how many people could claim to be millionaires. Alas, I'm not one of them.
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