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known is finite, the unknown infinite; intellectually we stand on an islet in the midst of an illimitable ocean of inexplicability. Our business in every generation is to relcaim a little more land." --T.H. Huxley |
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Monday, July 31, 2006Shooting in SeattleWhich shooting some might ask since the Seattle area has had more than its share of horrible murders in the last few months. But, of course, I'm referring to the incident where the crazy man shot up the Jewish Federation of Seattle, killing one and badly injuring five others. This is probably not the time to raise my long-held theory that all men under the age of 35 should be locked up since it is young men who cause nearly all the crime and violence in our world (I believe I came up with the theory at the age 0f 36). But, it is time to raise the theory that a small segment of the conservative movement have completely lost their senses and are ready to battle Islamic Theocrats in a way that will make our world more dangerous rather than safer. I say this because this segment is outraged that the media and others are not connecting the work of a lone lunatic as part of a larger Islamic terrorist network. This, despite the fact, all the information coming out of the investigation so far points to a man with severe mental health problems. In fact, he had been in a mental health institution earlier in the day of the shooting. But the facts and common sense don't stop the crazy element of the conservatives at all. Let's sample a few of their inane thoughts:
Yes, as a matter of fact, it is, Mr. Rosenberg. Naveed Afzal Haq, from all news accounts, has a long history of mental illness . If it wasn't Israel and Lebanon, his tortured mind would have found some other reason to target some group of people. He was, in fact, baptized a Christian a few months ago before Friday declaring himself an angry Muslim. If the War on Terror includes dealing with mentally ill people then what is the proposed solution by Sound Politics, National Review, Roger Simon and others? Do we hold them incommunicado in Guantanamo until the War on Terror ends (and will someone please define how we will know when the war is over?). Do we euthanize them, eliminate them, tie them to poles naked until they renounce their mental illness? And, how will this help in the War on Terror, or more accurately, the war against Islamic extremism? Or has this segment of the conservative movement gone off the deep end endangering us and the battle they allegedly care so much about?
The Passion of MelThe theme of the weekend was apparently trashing and killing Jews. After the attack of the Jewish Federation in Seattle, it came to light that Mel Gibson revealed what many suspected--he's a raving anti-Semite. After being pulled over for drunk driving, and appropos of nothing, he started screaming at the arresting cop:
The usual suspects are trying to downplay Gibson's behavior. But, it's pretty obvious when someone brings up Jews completely out of context and when his alcohol rating was only .12% that there's no other explanation than the obvious one: Gibson is anti-Semitic, horribly so. I never saw The Passion of the Christ so can't speak to whether it was anti-Semitic as many people claimed, but I did see South Park's Passion of the Jew and I'm sure it was a more worthwhile piece of filmmaking. Friday, July 28, 2006Singularity Is Ever NearerCNN's Future Boy (I bet you've always wanted to be called "Future Boy"--I'll probably end up being called "Future Past Perfect Guy") has an interesting article on the quadriplegic who was implanted with a small chip so that he can control his computer with his brain.
What's particularly interesting is that the scientists were able to do this because of our increasing understanding of how the human brain works.
Ray Kurzweil in The Singularity is Near talks quite a bit about our better understanding of the brain and how we are in the midst of reverse engineering the brain. Although much of this part of the books seems fanciful at first glance, the more I research and read about it the more likely Kurzweil's projections seem (whether they will happen as fast as Kurzweil thinks is another question). Just read the technology under development that Future Boy describes:
This, of course, is one reason why Microsoft needs to get its house in order (Dave Nelson will give 600 other reasons why). The desktop is indeed on its way out but the Singularity may indeed be on its way in. Deliberately MisleadingSome sources are disputing Koffi Annan's accusation that Israel deliberately targeted the UN in their attack. I guess we'll know more when some investigative lights pierces the fog of war but I do have one question for Annan and others: why would Israel deliberately target the UN? What do they gain by it? Auto X PrizeBuilding off the space X-Prize, there's now an auto X-Prize to build a super efficient car that people would want to buy. Of course, in a few years it will be an efficient self-driving car. Home Sweet HomeUnsold new homes hit a record last month. Of course, we'll have to wait and see what's going on with existing home sales before we hit the doom and gloom button and head for the hills (to live in a four-walled, one-room, partly roofed shack). But, I can report that the new McMansion built in our exceedingly modest neighborhood has been on the market now for nearly two months. It's ridiculously overpriced even for Seattle. The housing market seems still pretty robust here so this house is probably just a case of developer's greed, or so we all like to think. Thursday, July 27, 2006The Future, Mr. Gittes, The FutureI was at a program this week during which three of our local banks predicted the future of the major currencies. For what it's worth, here they are: EURO .....................3 Mo......................12 Mo. Wells Fargo ...........1.3000.................. 1.3250 Commerce .............1.2350 ..................1.3000 Key Bank ...............1.2900................... 1.2900 Yen .........................3 Mo........................ 12 Mo. Wells Fargo.......... 111.50 .......................109.50 Commerce ............119.00 .......................111.00 Key Bank ..............108.00 ......................103.00 Canadian ................3 Mo......................... 12 Mo. Wells Fargo ..........1.0800 ........................1.1100 Commerce ............1.1200........................ 1.1000 Key Bank ..............1.1000 .........................1.1500 Chinese Yuan ........3 Mo............................. 12 Mo. Wells Fargo ...........7.9000 ..........................7.5300 Commerce .............7.9000 ..........................7.6500 Key Bank ...............7.9000 ..........................7.7000 Osama's An AnarchistI have long thought that Osama Bin Laden and his buddies' actions most resemble the anarchists of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. I'm not the only one, apparently:
That was written by a conservative who supported the war in Iraq. This begs the question, of course, if the Islamic Fascists are merely the equivalent of 19th century anarchists, then why do we fight them like they are the Soviet Union? Wednesday, July 26, 2006Gotta DanceMore evidence YouTube is the greatest invention since the remote control. Careful, Everyone"I am shocked and deeply distressed by the apparently deliberate targeting by Israeli Defense Forces of a U.N. Observer post in southern Lebanon." So sayeth UN Secretary General Koffi Annan. If true, this is serious misconduct by Israel in their continued attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon. But, as of yet, we don't know that it is true and neither does Annan. It is a serious accusation and should not be made lightly. DOMA DecisionThe Washington Supreme Court will be releasing their decision shortly on whether our state's Defense in Marriage Act passes muster. I have not followed the legal arguments so can't speak on how the court should rule. I can say, however, that I hope marriage for gays and lesbians becomes a reality soon. Tuesday, July 25, 2006Buckley ThisI missed it over the weekend but the conservative lion in winter William Buckley was sharply critical of the current Bush in the White House. Buckley has stated negative views about the Iraq war in the last year but in this interview he was far more critical.
Ouch. Wait, there's more.
Too bad the today'sconservativee movement is not more like it's modern day founder. Lebanon CorrespondentFYI, the SamSpeak Lebanon Correspondent made it out a-okay over the weekend. The Wisdom of South ParkMatt Stone and Trey Parker, the geniuses behind South Park, were recently interviewed about Comedy Central's decision forbidding them from depicting Mohammed in any of their episodes. Trey noted what too few of our politicians did during the Danish cartoon controversy:
Monday, July 24, 2006Trade Deficit is the NormDid you know the U.S. ran a trade deficit nearly ever year from 1607 until World War I? Me neither until I read that stat recently. I gather one difference between the trade imbalances of yesteryear and today is that today most of the investments being made in the U.S. are by foreign governments buy U.S. government securities where in the past it was private buying private. Not sure what all this means but thought you should know about it. Efficient CarsTired of paying a lot of money for gas? Try one of these cars. Friday, July 21, 2006What to do in Iraq?I only ask the questions, I don't answer them. But the latest reports of increased violence and essentially a civil war taking place in Iraq forces us to ask them. I know many just want to get out of Iraq but we created the mess so better try to clean it up (although it's now become a Superfund type clean up site). One wishes George Bush didn't take us into Iraq but he did and now we've got to figure out some way to make the best of it. It doesn't help the world psyche that Iraq has fallen into civil war at the same time Israel has entered into Lebanon to try to wipe out Hezbollah. If anybody has any answers for Iraq, please contact the nearest authorities. The Return of the NeanderthalOne of the worst books I ever read was Neanderthal (can't remember who wrote it), a novel about some Neanderthals who are found in Nepal and it turns out they can communicate telepathically. The book was a gift, okay? But I did read it and other than laughing at the bad writing and ridiculous plot, I found no other redeeming features. But, according to the NY Times, researchers are working to recreate the genome for the Neanderthal. Theoretically, they could reintroduce Neanderthals to our world (insert lame joke that they are already in Congress here). Gay DayI was remiss in posting about remembering the two men in Iraq who a year ago this week were executed purely for the reason that they are gay. Andrew Sullivan had more here and points out that it is not just in Iran that people are discriminated because of old superstitions over sexual orientation. As we noted yesterday, it will be a better world when other people stop telling other people what to do and how to act. Thursday, July 20, 2006Superstition and NonsensePerhaps it is my frame of mind today but the forces of superstition and nonsense seem on the rise. Bush for the first time vetoes a bill and does so in an act devoid of science. And, of course, the battle continues in Israel and Lebanon over one of the few pieces of land with nary a drop of oil in it. In Iraq, for all intents and purposes, civil war rages. It is dark world today. On the Bright SideOur SamSpeak correspondent should be in Cyprus now. He got on a boat late Wednesday our time. More later as soon as we have more. More Superstitious BullS***
If I was in Congress, I'd introduce a bill deporting these representatives to Iran to live with their brethren in theocratic idiocy. Here's the deal: you take an oath to uphold the Constitution, not the bible, not the Koran, not some Scientologists Thetas, not some Buddhist meditation. You may argue through logic, facts and common sense, you may not tell the rest of us how to live our lives. You may, if you don't do these other things, f*** off and die. Wednesday, July 19, 2006Lebanon CorrespondentNo word yet on whether our SamSpeak correspondent has made it out of Lebanon. He had not as of early Tuesday morning Seattle time. Let's hope he's either on a boat or already in Cyprus. SamSpeak will keep you posted. No Money to OK?Here in our little neck of the woods, a group of rich Oklahomans have bought our NBA basketball team. The face of the OK ownership group, Clay Bennett, says he'll work for the next 12 months with Seattle to secure a new arena deal. Why he would think that the same town that doesn't want to give taxpayer money to our own billionaires would want to give money to out of town billionaires he didn't say. Of course, he doesn't really want or think that a new arena deal will happen since his true desire is to move the team to Oklahoma. I don't want to give taxpayer money to the Sonics owners--no matter who they are (well, unless I'm the owner, of course) but I do shed a green and gold tear to see the original Seattle professional sports team, the team I cheered on as a child, prepare to pack up and leave. On the groundAs predicted, Israel is beginning to send in ground troops. It is becoming quite clear that Israel is no longer willing to put up with the status quo. That is, they will not allow Hezbollah to continue as a threat in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah set up shop in Lebanon and went about (with the help of Iran and Syria) developing the capability to send missile attacks well within Israel. No country would put up with such a threat from their neighbor. The question, however, is how Israel can realistically end the threat. Can they militarily take Hezbollah out without their being able to soon come back into southern Lebanon and again become a threat? Or, is Israel planning on taking out the threat for a least the short term with this military exercise and then willing to work with the international community and Lebanon's government to find a way to prevent Hezbollah from setting up shop on their border again? One presumes that Israel is not planning on trying to take out Iran and/or Syria to end the Hezbollah threat. Although, as George Will points out, the magnificently misnamed neo-conservatives in our country are advocating just that. Tuesday, July 18, 2006Writing DeadlineI'm on a writing deadline so may not post much today. However, for those wondering, I do not know yet if the SamSpeak correspondent in Lebanon has been able to evacuate yet. As soon I have more info, I'll post it here. Monday, July 17, 2006The Cartoon Wars ContinuedMatt Stone and Trey Parker are not allowed to show Mohammed on South Park...or Tom Cruise. Apparently there is concern that Scientologists will start rioting in the streets and boycotting Dutch cheese. What's Next?The military exchanges in Lebanon have lasted far longer than I thought they would. I would guess this means Israel is not just doing some retaliatory bombing or hoping to rattle Hezbollah into turning over the captured Israeli soldiers. They appear to be up to something larger than that. One wonders whether a ground war will be next. And, if this is what Israel has in mind will they wait to do it until foreigners (including and especially our SamSpeak correspondent on the ground there) are evacuated. Many countries are already evacuating their citizens. The U.S. State Department has been saying it won't be able to evacuate until beginning Wednesday. So, if the ground troops from Israel do indeed head into Lebanon, perhaps it would not happen until late Wednesday or early Thursday. Or, if Hezbollah understands that is the next step, and decides they are not prepared for the Israeli military, they may turn over soldiers and take other steps to waylay the invasion. Or, they may take a page from Iraq and melt into the background, prepared to fight another day. Sunday, July 16, 2006More Reports From The FrontThe war in the Middle East is widening. Many Americans are stranded in Lebanon including a former colleague. Here's his latest report.
We will indeed. Be safe. Friday, July 14, 2006Report From the Front
Someone I know is in Lebanon. Here's what's happening as of this morning from his ground view:
Waking up this morning to the reverberations and boom of a missle Israel and escalationJosh Marshall writes mostly what I think on what is happening in Israel and Lebanon right now. Take Your Mind off the Middle EastOkay, so the Iran situation is dangerous and apparently unsolvable. But, apparently I'm not the only one who thinks Pakistan is potentially even more so:
It's a dangerous world. The Man Behind the CurtainThat would be Iran. They are the country actively destabilizing Iraq (among others) and they are the ones that support Hezbollah. What to about it is, of course, the billion dollar question. But the first step to solving a problem is recognizing it. The Shrinking Trade Deficit?You probably saw earlier this week that the trade deficit again ballooned, this time rising to $63.8 billion in May. What you probably don't know is that if you subtract oil imports, the deficit actually shrank as Americans were buying less stuff, apparently. Is this due to a slowing economy or some other reason? Stay tuned. Why the Escalation NowI have to admit I'm confused by why the Israeli government has chosen these incidents to retaliate so forcefully. Haaratz attempts to explain:
Maybe but I'm guessing there's more to it than that. But what? I'm confused. Thursday, July 13, 2006Iran and North KoreaWhat's happening in the Middle East right now is why I've always been more concerned about Iran than North Korea. Mr. Ronery Kim Jong-Il launched his errant missile and got a lot of publicity. But, he does not have the technology to put nuclear warheads on missiles, his missiles have no accuracy and North Korea does not particularly have expansionist ambitions. Kim's goal is to perpetuate his power. Iran, on the other hand, has long played a role in Hezbollah, is actively working to destabilize Iraq and has a president who has openly called for the elimination of Israel. Iran having nuclear weapons is a much bigger deal than North Korea. It would be nice if both were defanged but Iran is the more immediate worry. What to do about it though is a big question. The Bush Administration, through its past policies, burning of bridges and general incompetence, has limited the options of the United States to develop a coherent strategy to deal with the threat of Iran. The question is whether the situation can wait until Bush is out of office in two and a half years. Let's hope. Screw Nuclear, Worry About BioWhen worried about Islamic fundamentalists and other crazies, we always concentrate on their somehow acquiring nuclear capability and killing lots of people. In truth, in the near future, they will have difficulties building or acquiring a nuclear capability that is threatening to the West. Suitcase nuclear bombs are mostly a myth. However, the biological revolution offers more to fear. A computer programmer and writer named Paul Boutin recently decided to find out how easy it would be for a relative lay person such as himself to manufacture, for instance, the small pox virus, the formula for which is readily available on the Internet.
The 9/11 Commission estimated those attacks cost somewhere between $400,000 and $500,000 to pull off. It's unlikely as of 2006 that a Muslim fanatic could figure out how to create a smallpox or other lethal virus but with genetics increasingly dependent on information technology, the rate of improvement is accelerating. According to Boulin:
Boulin was successful in creating a special protein from another genetic substance. It's just a short step from that process to creating a lethal genetic substance. While we need to worry about nuclear proliferation, perhaps more urgent is the genetic bomb about to hit us. We only have a short time to get ready. As Boulin says:
More Signs Of A Nearing Singularity?They've been working on minds controlling computers for a few years now but it is apparently becoming successful:
Brains controlling computers? Good stuff. Of course, some people worry about the day computers control minds. Wednesday, July 12, 2006
In the hubbub of the federal deficit shrinking due to increased tax revenue, many are forgetting that spending is still rocketing up. Spending has increased 9 percent this year. Since 2001, federal spending has gone up 45%. Yes, some of this was due to larger defense and so-called homeland security spending increases. But much is not. The increase in non-defense discretionary spending is double the increases we saw under Clinton. Which, of course, begs the question: why did conservatives hate Clinton but love Bush? Oh, and according to the Heritage Foundation:
Spending under President Bush has increased from 18.5 percent of GDP to 20.6 Clinton was far more fiscally conservative than Bush. Both started wars--Clinton in Kosovo and Bush in Afghanistan and Iraq. Clinton signed off on welfare reform. Bush enacted a new drug entitlement. Apparently conservatives value being faithful to your spouse above all other issues. The "G" in SingularityIn the Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil talks about the coming GNR revolution--genetics, nanotechnology and robotics which will happen in that order, he says. A recent New York Times article illustrates progress on the "G" part of the revolution:
As someone with a bum knee, I look forward to growing a new biological one rather than getting the difficult knee replacement surgery. Tuesday, July 11, 2006Zidane GameThat didn't take long. The Zidane Game. Old Man Russell
We all know the Fed has been raising short rates each time it meets as sure as an alcoholic orders a drink from a bar at 5. Richard Russell, an old and experienced financial whiz, stated recently that he thinks they will start lowering rates come August. Why? Deflation may be rearing its ugly head, according to some. Not seeing deflation in your monthly bills? Me neither. But the theory is that if the housing boom finally is coming to an end and the almighty American consumer stops spending so much, then prices will fall. As always, we wait and see.
The Faces of China
Al Scott wrote an interesting article in Sunday's Seattle Times about the transformation of China. He manages to put a face to the amazing transition happening in that country. He was part of a delegation my office brought to China last December. If you didn't read the article on Sunday, do so now.
Monday, July 10, 2006Self-Driving Car UpdateDid you know Toyota has developed a Prius that parks itself? So far it's only available in Japan and the driver still does the accelerating and braking but all the wheel turning is done by the car. I'm telling you, the era of the self-driving car is just around the corner. Puget Sound RulesYesterday's paper had an interesting graphic buried in the business section showing where job growth has been in Washington State the last year. It's mostly concentrated in the Seattle area, specifically Snohomish and King counties. In fact, in some parts of the state job growth was negative over the last year. The Shrinking Budget Deficit HeadlineIf you read the front page story yesterday on higher tax revenues shrinking the budget deficit but that the long-term forecast is grim, I hope you remember SamSpeak was ahead of the game on this story by nearly a month. Um, Times, Meet the WorldI'm not a big fan of the local newspapers and even less of a fan of criticizing them--it's like taking potshots at Howard Lincoln (owner of the Seattle Mariners). We already know he's an evil idiot so why bother to point it out. Okay, I do like taking potshots at Howard Lincoln so to even the score a bit let me point out the idiocy of the Seattle Times' Sunday editorial on the Mexico presidential race. It's mostly a bunch of nothing writing and factual errors including and especially this one:
Well, no one except for one of the two candidates locked in the close race--Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. He, the leftist candidate, has been saying it's the most corrupt election of the last 70 years. Obrador is wrong, of course, and so is the Times. World Cup Head ButtAnd you wanted me to skip going to Safeco Field to watch a mediocre baseball team so I could watch the World Cup instead? Why when I could just as easily watch an old Three Stooges movie on TV later? Friday, July 07, 2006Emmy Fights the PowerThe South Park Scientology-Tom-Cruise-is-crazy episode has been nominated for an Emmy. The battle for earth has ended, the battle for Hollywood has just begun! Infernal Affairs
Watched the Hong Kong flick, Infernal Affairs, last night. Darn good movie. It's everything most Hollywood thriller cop movies aren't--intelligent and full of tension with a complicated plot that adds up to something. It has its flaws but it's a first rate watch. Martin Scorsese is remaking it with Matt Damon, Leo DeCaprio and Jack Nicholson. It's tailored made for a Scorsese treatment.
Thursday, July 06, 2006Human Nature and Mother NatureRobert Samuelson has an interesting column on global warming in which he points out that even if everyone and their mother agreed that humans are causing global warming, we still probably wouldn't do much about it.
This last is a nice jab at Al "I am better than everyone else" Gore. There's a reason Kyoto didn't come close to being ratified when Gore was Vice President. Most politicians dream of being Churchill in the 1930s--lonely voices in the wilderness warning of peril ahead. Usually, they latch onto enemies like China or Iran but Gore has used climate change as his Churchill stalking horse. It fits very well into his personality of haranguing the rest of us about how we should behave, whether it is which music we listen to or what car we drive. Gore's goal is to make himself look moral. If our real goal is to battle climate change caused by humans, it will take another, more sensible leader. Wednesday, July 05, 2006I'm So RonreySo North Korea launched a couple of missile in a test of their long-range capability. I know I should be more worked up about it but I just can't seem to do it. North Korea has not shown any expansionist tendencies. Unlike Iran, they have not threatened to blow up a nearby country (Israel) or expressed a desire to spread a religion over every inch of the earth. The danger of North Korea is that they will sell their dangerous technology to third parties. But, that might be something that can be monitored. It will be a better world when Kim Jong-il has left our little globe and we should work to change North Korea, but at this point, anyway, it is a far less dangerous country than Iran, Pakistan and a number of other places. Monday, July 03, 2006No SignsI think I mentioned a few weeks ago they built a McMansion on our block, a decidedly un-McMansion-like neighborhood, here in little old Seattle. The asking price? $700,000. That was three weeks ago and despite yet another open house on Sunday, the for sale sign is still up. Is this just a case of an isolated rosy-glassed, greedy developer or is the debt tide coming into shore? More Self Driving CarsMy outlanding prediction that we will see self-driving cars within 10 years is looking more and more outlandishly pessimistic. First, the head of the Stanford Lab that won the grand challenge race of self driving cars said it would only take six years. Now, the Daily Mail reports that VW has produced a version of the Gulf GTI which is self-driving. Okay, so the Daily Mail may not be the best source but the future is increasingly now when it comes to self-driving cars. Laugh, Man, LaughThe Rouble Goes Wild
Call your currency trader, the Russian Rouble becomes fully convertible today. Let the buying or fleeing begin.
Saturday, July 01, 2006Yankees Sign JesusEr, uh, according to this site, anyway.
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