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Thursday, August 31, 2006Good God, Inflation!More talk of inflation, this time on MSNBC. As we here at SamSpeak have long noted, the cost of things you need have been going up in price steeply over the last three years. Fuel for your car, heat for your house, food for your table, a roof over your head, healing for your body--all these things have been seeing double digit increases. Computers are cheaper than ever as are iPods and a variety of other electronic devices. But you can't eat them, live in them or use them to fix your broken leg. I read the other day that some experts are predicting gas prices may fall to $2 per gallon by Thanksgiving. Maybe so. I remember last January the same folks were predicting that gas prices would moderate this year. It's possible but it assumes nothing goes wrong--no bad hurricanes, no more bad news in the Middle East, no catastrophes in Venezuela, a slow dampening of demand in China, India and other large emerging markets. It wouldn't be shocking if gas prices fell over the next few months but I wouldn't bet on it. And, in the meantime, I see my local utility wants to raise prices 10% because of the increased cost of natural gas. And, there are a slew of tax increases on the ballot here in Washington State this fall. Inflation is likely to continue to eat into our economic pie until we become so hungry that deflation jumps out of the shadows. Wednesday, August 30, 2006Bloggers Unite
Watched the Mariner game on TV last night and saw the horrifying Rafael Soriano injury when he was hit by the batted ball right in the ear. Later I went to one of the Mariner blogs and read the comments during the game. After Soriano was hit, a bunch of Angel fans from an Angel blog jumped into the comments section of the Mariner blog and expressed their best wishes and thoughts for Soriano. It was perhaps blogs and the Internet at its best.
Ask the Wrong Question, Receive the Right AnswerKevin Drum addresses welfare reform in a ham-handed way:
Tuesday, August 29, 2006The Pollution of the MassesA Financial Times article about pollution in the Pearl River District area of China, as well as in Hong Kong, reminds me about the incredible air pollution I experienced in Shenzhen. The air was thick with it. Lots of folks worry it doesn't much matter what the U.S. does to reduce its emissions because places like China and India will more than fill the gap as they continue their extraordinary growth. There's some truth to that but one of the interesting aspects of my trip to China is how interested ordinary people, businesses and government were in addressing the environmental problems there. Perhaps China won't be able to do much about the environment until they develop to a certain point but it's also possible they won't develop in the same way the U.S. and Europe did during our industrial revolution. Knowledge, technology and ethics are different than they were 100 years ago and are likely to have an impact on how China addresses environmental issues as they grow at 10% per year. Monday, August 28, 2006We Come in PeaceI've been reading a very interesting book called, Before the Dawn, about how breakthroughs in genetics are allowing us to gain a greater understanding of pre-history humans and their ancestors. It was written by the New York Times science writer, Nicholas Wade. The book is fascinating in many ways but one aspect I found particularly entertaining was Wade's blowing the lid off the idea that our hunter and gatherers ancestors were a peaceful lot. In fact, they were more violent than modern man. "Warfare," says Wade, was a routine occupation of primitive societies...As far as human nature is concerned, people of early societies seem to have been considerably more warlike than are people today." For years many luddites have liked to point to early human history as the best of times, a culture we need to emulate. As Wade notes, "...by playing down the prevalence of warfare in the past they have obscured the important and surprising fact adduced by Keeley, that modern societies have succeeded in greatly reducing the frequency of warfare." (Wait, where's the normal doom and gloom? Are you saying things are getting better?--Sam. Patience, tomorrow we'll be back to the familiar dark alleys we usually traverse--Floyd.) Knitters vs. DrinkersYou may not know that it is against the rules to bring a bottle of water into Safeco Field, the home of the local baseball team. This is not by order of the liquor board or anything like that, it's merely a hair-brained idea of the team, using security as an excuse. While watching the hometown nine yesterday on TV--our beloved if mediocre Seattle Mariners--they showed a clip of Knitting Night at the ballpark. Apparently the mighty M's during one game reserved a special section for knitters and showed footage of an army of middle age women knitting during the game. This spurred my wife to note that it is okay to bring into the ballpark large sharp needles but not one of the basic sustenances of life--water. And so the great Safeco Field water battle continues. Friday, August 25, 2006Bush Needs SocratesA friend's daughter attends St. John's, a liberal arts school in Annaplolis that provides a classics curriculum. The President of St. John's gave his convocation earlier this week, using Plato's dialogue, Meno, to illustrate some points for his incoming students. Socrates has shown us, the readers (and Meno, if he were listening), that understanding our own ignorance is necessary for learning to take place especially understanding our ignorance of the everyday common things we thought we knew well. When we can look at the familiar andsuddenly realizee that we really don't understand it, when we can look at what we always thought we knew, and ask what is this thing? then we are ready to learn and well along the path to better understanding. In that state we are truly torpid, just as the slave boy was, and we bring a sense of wonder to our search. This wonder comes not from something we understand, but rather from our desire to understand --- what we sometimes call a love of learning, born not in understanding but in ignorance. Socrates has done something else in his demonstration. He has also shown us the power of discovering what something is NOT, and helped us see that knowing what something is nmuch morechmore than knowing nothing; it is a kind of knowing ignorance, an intelligent perplexity that comes from trying out and discarding false notions. When people tell me Bush is not very smart I disagree. He has a high enough IQ. That someone cannot speak, as Bush can't, is often misunderstood as stupidity. But, there's plenty of smart people out there who can't speak very well. No, the problem is not that Bush is stupid but that he is intellectually incurious. He, as Socrates pointed out more than 2000 years ago, needs to develop a desire to understand rather than assume he already knows the truth. Thursday, August 24, 2006Roundball in ChinaBasketball is huge in China with more Chinese playing the sport than the total number of Americans. In Shenzhen, I constantly saw kids carrying basketballs with them or holding them while they waited for the bus. At a couple of factories there were baskets that the workers played at during their breaks (they get breaks?). Lebron James understands where the future is.
Money Pits Fall Into Pits?Apparently the long expected slowdown in housing is actually happening. Whether it's just a lull or the bubble is actually bursting is anyone's guess. But, I can report the $700,000 house on our block is still for sale. In fact, the developer hasn't even reduced the price. However, when standing on our porch at night, I believe I can detect a waft of desperation floating through the neighborhood. Wednesday, August 23, 2006Unbreakable China IIChina seems even more open and intellectually robust since my last visit three years ago. At the conference, the second-richest businessman in China spoke and was forthright and blunt. He talked about the lack of rule of law in the country and problems with the government. He and another speaker sharply criticized and made fun of academics the same way Americans attack lawyers. In fact, after one academic very much associated with the Chinese national establishment spoke at the conference, the next speaker, a leading business person in Shenzhen, tore apart the academic's speech, to the large applause of the 700 Shenzhenese in the audience. One note about these top business people: they were all dressed casually--short sleeve polo shirts and slacks. Very suitable for the hot and humid weather. The government people, of course, were all in suits. Symbolic, somehow. Unbreakable ChinaI was in Shenzhen, a town which only twenty years ago was a small fishing village of 30,000. Today, it is the heart of the new Chinese powerhouse economy and is bigger than New York with a population of more than 11 million. Like other parts of China I've been to, Shenzhen ehibits the energy of a country on the rise. Hustle and bustle and construction cranes are everywhere you turn. I was in town at Shenzhen's invite for the Sino-Overseas Top 500 CEO Forum despite the fact I'm neither a CEO nor top 500 in anything. Go figure. My hosts, as always in China, were very gracious and thoughtful, picking me up at the airport in Hong Kong and driving me the 45 minute trip across the border to Shenzhen. We arrived at the hotel at 10:30 at night buy my hosts insisted we have dinner. It was there I was informed I was not only giving a speech but the lead-off key note speech at the conference first thing the next morning. So after dinner, sometime after midnight, I went to my room and tried to upgrade my speech for the occasion. I was somewhat alarmed when I was escorted to my room by the photographer at the dinner (yes, they took pics of everything, including of my eating) and by my young female interpreter. What, I wondered, were they planning on taking photos of? Fortunately, they were only making sure I found my room. Tuesday, August 22, 2006Back From China
Wasn't able to post while in Shenzhen because my hosts had my every waking moment planned (and some of my sleeping ones). I'll report in more detail later when I'm not so bleary eyed (or if jet lag prevents sleep maybe I'll post later tonight) but I'll say this--China has changed even in the three years since I was last there. There is more open debate at least about the economy. I'll explain more shortly.
Wednesday, August 16, 2006The Answers Part IIAnd now, the exciting Part II containing the answers to surviving and thriving in our little war against Islamic extremism. a) The best long-term answer to the Islamic extremist world vision is to offer a real world example of a successful alternative. That means a United States with a free and energetic economy. A country with a climate that encourages entrprennuerialism, that provides a safety net and that continues a long and expanding tradition of free speech. One that is open to different cultures even as they blend together into a cohesive, ever changing American culture. A country confident in its founding values but humble in its outlook. A nation that displays the benefits of equality for women who contribute to our economy, our politics, our culture and every other facet of society. An America that embraces marriage for gays and lesbians. The freer we are economically and socially while encouraging self-responsibility, the more our country will offer opportunity to all who want it. And, when others see what have, they will increasingly call for it in their countries. b) We need to stick up for the values that have made the West successful. The West, through the Enlightenment, gains in civil rights, economic freedom and political liberalization all steadily accomplished over the last 300 years, is something of which we should all be proud. The United States and other Western countries are flawed and have many stains on their historical records. But they also can point to a road, winding and with switch backs no doubt, of enlightenment that has made us over the centuries a freer, more prosperous peoples. We need not force our values upon the rest of the world but we should forcefully speak up for the opportunity they hold for those who adapt them to their own societies. Finally, a fifth facet in our fight is the use of military force where necessary and where effective. The sweeping out of the Taliban in Afghanistan was a necessary measure. It held risks but ones much more manageable than those in Iraq. If we had kept our military attacks to Afghanistan and used our resources and allies resources there, the world today would be a much safer place. We attacked Afghanistan because it had become an Islamic extremist launching ground for Al Queda. Ironically, by invading Iraq, we may be creating a new one there. Whatever happens in Iraq in the coming months and years, the four facets and the wise use of military force must be our guides through an increasingly dangerous world. Tuesday, August 15, 2006The AnswersOkay, now that we've mapped the landscape of our dangerous world let's take a crack at figuring a way to navigate safely through it. There are four facets that should be part of our strategy to deal with Islamic extremism. 1. More Defensive Measures; The thwarting of the planned attack on planes by the Brits is both heartening and harrowing. It was certainly a positive sign that British and American intelligence caught the home grown Islamic extremists well before their plan could be implemented. And, they were helped in part by others in the Muslim community who tipped off authorities to the plan. On the other hand, it also showed how easy it is for people to bring down a plane if they're determined to do so. The history of the military is one of offense and defense taking turns having the upper hand. As we have noted, technology empowers individuals and dastardly individuals now have more access to more dangerous technology. But, technology will also aid the defensive side of the equation as well. In fact, Kevin Drum points to one such example, a system which asks questions of passengers going through airports to determine if they are terrorists. Today, the system is not accurate at all. Tomorrow, perhaps, it will be. The same is true for detection devices of liquid bombs, poisons and other threats. Today, we don't have the capability but that doesn't mean we cannot develop it and it's high time we devoted a lot of energy to these high tech defensive measures. Our efforts in defensive weapons, should focus in smaller, practical measures, and the effort needs to be stepped up exponentially. At the same time we must recognize the some giving up of privacy is likely needed. However, where the Bush Administration has unilaterally snatched our privacy away from us without providing a framework of checks and balances on executive power, it's high time an intelligent debate was held on the issue and a system implemented that both allows for data collection and intrusion no privacy with judicial and congressional checks. The world is likely to see ever more dangerous weapons in the coming years that are more accessible by individuals and small groups. We need to prepare now for this new world. 2. Work to liberalize the Middle East and Africa; One of my biggest gripes about the Bush Administration is they have given promotion of liberalization a bad name. This is partly because they concentrated solely on democratization and partly because their attempts have been rash and incompetent. When working in Congress in the late 1980s and early 1990s I worked for programs to encourage liberalization and democratization in the Middle East. After September 11th, Bush decided to force the square peg of democracy into the round black hole of the failed society that was Saddam Hussein's Iraq. He imagined that when Saddam Hussein was removed democracy would arise with ease as it had in Central Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union. He believed this despite intelligence reports warning of sectarian violence between Kurds, Sunni and Shia and despite the fact that Saddam Hussein's Iraq had ceased to be a functioning society. And then, Bush compounded the problem by having neither a plan nor a backup plan for how to create a civil society. And, now, most people think it's a bad idea to encourage liberalization and democratization in the Middle East. But, we can work slowly and organically to these ends, starting first on liberalization. This needs to be done because functioning liberal societies will lesson the strength of Islamic extremism and because the people of the Middle East should not be saddled with tyranny. Bush has made it much more difficult for the United States to encourage and work for liberalization in these countries. However, if we concentrate on economic liberalization it may still be possible to make inroads down the line that will lead to political liberalization. It is a crucial long-term necessity, along with increasing our defensive capability, to making ourselves safe from Islamic extremism and its use of terrorism. To keep this post from becoming too long, I'll wait until later in the week to go over the third and fourth facets. I'll only mention here that the two facets are: a) working to make our own country successful, economically and socially; and b) 4. We need to stick up for the values that have made the West successful. Fallowing My LeadI notice James Fallows in the latest Atlantic is partially taking my point that Al Queda can't destroy us, only we can. Lest any of you think I took Fallows' idea, let me point to my essay written on September 23, 2001:
I'm hoping to read the full Fallows article on the plane on Wednesday but his basic point, "...(Al Qaeda's) threat now rests less on what it can do itself than on what it can trick, tempt, or goad us into doing," is right. Where it appears I disagree with Fallows is I think this was always the case where Fallows appears to believe this is so only recently. Monday, August 14, 200660 SecondsI watched 60 Minutes to see the Stephen Colbert interview but had to watch Mike Wallace embarrass himself first in his interview with Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It was very ironic that 60 Minutes featured Colbert right after the caricature of a newsman asked not one intelligent question. CBS should be completely embarrassed. Answers, We Want AnswersScrew the answers, let's analyze the topography of our turbulent political world a little bit more first. First, let's examine the enemy. He has no army and has no ability to take down the United States. Even if the Islamic extremists succeed in another terrorist attack, they have no capability to take over the United States or any other industrialized, high-tech country. No, the only way the United States can be destroyed is if we do the job ourselves. Our economy can suffer damage due to terrorist attacks but long-term harm will be our own doing. The Muslim fanatics may want to eliminate free religion and speech and dampen the sexuality in our culture but they can't. We, of course, can do that for them. This is another central fact of the fight against Muslim theocracy, our enemies can cause damage to our country, perhaps one day even kill millions of people, but it cannot bring us down--only we can do that. We fight not a country but a pathological ideology. But you want answers, and you'll get them, later in the week, either from here or when I'm in China, near the birthplace of the Asian Century. Friday, August 11, 2006The Questions, Coming Soon: AnswersI'm again under deadline getting ready to head for China next week (sans gel and liquids on the 10 hour flight) but in light of the thwarting of the latest Islamic fascist terrorist plot, it's time to start laying out what the world needs to do in the global battle in which we find ourselves--one that the Bush Administration on too many fronts is losing. Next week we'll provide answers but let's start by asking questions and describing the world as it is. The problem is we live in a world where individuals and small groups are more and more empowered by technology. This is actually a good thing in many ways. You and I can communicate with people all over the world with timeliness and ease. We can access information, whether medical or the correct pricing of a new car, that makes our lives easier and better. At a mouse click we can learn how to fix a toilet or learn who Napolean's first wife was. We can create our own technology out of our homes. The downside, of course, is that some fanatical fundamentalist can access the formula for how to make small pox and buy a DNA sequencer on EBay for $300. Or, he can create a small vial of explosive that is easily snuck onto an airplane. In others, Michael Corleone's words in the Godfather Part II, "If anything in this life is certain, if history has taught us anything, it is that you can kill anyone," is now more true than ever and magnified by a factor of thousands. So, one question is, when living in such a world what do we do about it. The Bush answer, incompetently implemented, is to invade a country that was tangentially involved and to create a beachhead of democracy in that country. It was also to determine that our opponents were so dangerous that anything goes in our defense--torture, illegal wiretapping and all the rest. Most of the loyal opposition has offered little in the way of counter proposals. There are alternatives, including how we use the military, the bully pulpit and how we work to spread liberalization in the Middle East, South Asia, Africa and other neglected regions. More on that next week. But, again before answering these questions we need to recognize two central facts. Groups and individuals are more empowered today by technology and will be even more empowered tomorrow and this includes groups who hold ill will against modernity. This is the second fact. A distended group of religious fascists want to impose their world view on people in the Middle East, Africa and into the West. They are willing to cause all manner of death and destruction to this end. They are not a country or alliance of countries with a half million army full of artillery, nuclear warheads, infantry and all the rest. That was the last war. We are fighting a different enemy in a different world. A few questions to ponder. What privacy rights, if any, will we need to give up for security? Under what system of checks and balances will those rights be surrendered? What kind of defense systems do we need to consider for the new types of threats we are currently encountering and will encounter over the coming years? How can we best change the situation on the ground in the Middle East, South Asia and parts of Africa? More next week or later in the week from China. Thursday, August 10, 2006Good Point in Slate and in DrumI'm busy with meetings all day and night but wanted to point to this post by Kevin Drum: "...aside from kvetching about Bush's policies, the liberal blogosphere has chosen to almost unanimously sit out any substantive discussion of the fight against radical jihadism and what to do about it." He quotes Jacob Weisberg in Slate: "The problem for the Democrats is that the anti-Lieberman insurgents go far beyond simply opposing Bush's faulty rationale for the war, his dishonest argumentation for it, and his incompetent execution of it. Many of them appear not to take the wider, global battle against Islamic fanaticism seriously." Therein lies our country's problem--the current Republican Administration is incompetent to fight the global battle (and uses the wrong tactics and strategy) and the Democrats don't believe such a battle exists. Wednesday, August 09, 2006Down Goes JoeI don't particularly care one way or the other that Joe Lieberman was defeated in the Democratic primary. Invading Iraq was a foolish risk and Lieberman isn't exactly a fiscal conservative. However, when one reads quotes like this from Lamont: "“How come we’re spending $250 million a day over there (Iraq) and we can’t afford universal health care for every American… and I teach school in Bridgeport and we can’t afford to keep that high school open past two o’clock in the afternoon?” one can only come to the conclusion that still after 8 decades the instinctive reaction of the political left is more government spending is the answer to every problem. Clinton began to steer us away from that notion. Bush jr. put us back on the rocks and the left, rather than abandoning ship, want to bring on more cargo. Honey, Grab the Credit Card!Gas prices are up. Family budgets are pinched from rising inflation and local tax increases. What to do, what to do? Wait! I've got it. We'll charge our way out of it. Yup, just when it seemed the all mighty American consumer was tapped out, consumer borrowing rose 5.7% in June. The squeeze is on: the housing market appears to be finally slowing down shutting off the home equity ATMs just as inflation leaps off the starting line. The fed, more worried about a slowdown than inflation, apparently, finally pauses in the quarter rate increases. Of course, with so many now expecting an economic slow down maybe the opposite will happen. Or, maybe the economy is coming apart at the seams at the same time the world is. Ahh, the return of doom and gloom. Doom and GloomIf you thought I was pessimistic about Israel and the Middle East, you haven't seen nothing yet. Check out Andrew Sullivan:
Of course, he's but a piker compared to Bernard Lewis in yesterday's Wall Street Journal:
Both Lewis and Sullivan can tend toward the melodramatic (but not you?--Sam. I'm a bastion of calmness!--Floyd) but there is much to be pessimistic about. To avert disaster is to assume that a) countries such as Iran will become civilized before they acquire weapons of mass destruction; or b) acquiring those weapons will moderate their behavior; and/or c) they don't really mean what they've been saying about eliminating Israel and eliminating all Jews from the Middle East. Ignoring Iran's Ahmadinejad steady stream of apocalyptic speeches is foolish, even he is not really running the country (the clergy is). There are certain markers that have been set down throughout history that we have ignored at our peril. Hitler is the overused analogy but there are plenty of recent ones. When Iran placed a death sentence on Salmon Rushdie for writing a novel, that was so beyond the pale that we should have recognized it for the harbinger of a new threatening Islamic fundamentalism that would result in September 11th. The same is true when the Taliban government destroyed the ancient Buddhist temples in Afghanistan. Ahmadinejad's words portend real peril as well. The question is what do we do about it. No one can trust the current administration to act effectively either militarily or diplomatically since they have proven themselves so incompetent over the last 6 years. The next administration, unfortunately, is likely to be short of time and options to deal with the dangerous situation. Tuesday, August 08, 2006How Not to Fight Islamic TheocratsKevin Drum notes in a post on the Iraq war says that Democrats must clearly show in the coming campaign that there's anlternative to the Bush approach to the so-called "War on Terrorism".
There is much to disagree with Kevin Drum, including in this post, but he does make a key point when he states we need to concentrate less on "mid-20th century notions of fighting wars against uniformed armies." Too much of the Bush strategy is based on fighting an enemy like the Soviet Union--a country with a massive army and lots of weapons. That is not what we are fighting and we've got to stop pretending that it is. Monday, August 07, 2006The War, The Ceasefire, The WarThe U.S. and France have agreed on something for once: a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. The agreement provides plenty of things Israel is interested in, including an international force in the buffer zone. One long-term worry for Israel is in a number of places the agreement gives authority to the Lebanon state, including this: "there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state." This makes sense, of course, in many ways. But--prediction time--Hezbollah will work to take control of the Lebanon state. In fact, they were already doing that before the current war started. This is worth a longer post at some point but it's difficult to envision any long term scenario in which the state of Israel is not doomed (You're such an optimist--Sam. That's me!--Floyd) Kaus Beats a Drum
A classic Kaus Files takes down Kevin Drum and his flights of fantasy. Here's one key section:
In fact, at this point the impediment to a Democratic victory is hardly theAnd here Kaus bangs Drum and nails the Democrats big problem with education in our country: But what about education--which is not just a philosophical issue but one ofEducation is one of those classic issues where the majority on both sides of the aisle knows the problem is the education lobby itself but no one is willing to anything about it. Next time you hear some public figure resort to the first refuge of scoundrels--saying we have to do it for the children--laugh directly in their face. Friday, August 04, 2006The 95% TheoryI'm not sure if I've ever posted my theory here that 95% of the world is completely bat-ass crazy. My book on this is due out in early 2008 but we now have concrete proof that 33% of Americans are loony tunes. In the book, I'll offer proof for the other 62%. Central Banks on the RiseCentral Banks around the world are raising interest rates. The European Central Bank and the English Central Bank both raised rates yesterday. Earlier this year, Japan rose above its zero percent interest rates after a decade-long deflationary economy. And, of course, the U.S. Fed has been raising a quarter point each quarter like an annoying poker player with a bad hand. They all fear inflation. If the U.S. housing market really is slowing down and people can't take money out of their houses anymore will the economy slow into a recession? And will inflation still increase at that point? Or will deflation sneak in the backdoor? We offer no answers, only a multitude of questions. Thursday, August 03, 2006Monkeying AroundDear SheikhaOn Al Jazeera--English version, of course--there is a feature called "Dear Sheikha" where people write in with questions. Someone asks Sheikha about the Mel Gibson incident. Here's his answer:
Thanks, Sheikha. That clears that up. To the Moon, Alice-San, To the MoonJapan plans on building a manned moon station that will be ready by 2030. Make your reservations today. Wednesday, August 02, 2006A Few AnswersYesterday we asked questions about Israel and Lebanon. Today we foolishly try to answer them. 1. What's Israel's goal? To clear out Hezbollah from southern Lebanon and create a buffer zone along the border. Then the plan is to get an international force to play a peace keeping role there. So, Israel is banking on a) that they will indeed be able to clear out southern Lebanon (easier than eliminating Hezbollah completely I suppose) and b) the UN or some other body will be willing to send in peace keeping troops and c) that these troops will actually be effective in keeping the buffer zone clear of Hezbollah. Israel seems to think it will take a number of weeks longer to clear out Hezbollah. So, the next questions (I said I'd answer the questions but I didn't say I wouldn't ask more questions) are can they clear them out from southern Lebanon, how long will it take to do it and what will happen in the Middle East--Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon--during the time period it takes to clear out southern Lebanon. If Shiite Iraq explodes in anger against the U.S. before Israel is done in Lebanon, what will the U.S. do? 2. This, of course, leads to the second series of questions we asked. The U.S. has influence over Israel but not control. If the U.S. gets spooked by what's happening in Iraq due to Israel's military strikes in Lebanon and tells Israel to cease and desist, Israel won't necessarily listen to the U.S. Like any country, they will decide what is in their best interests. It will not be an easy decision but Israel's whole existence since 1948 has been a series of difficult decisions of survival. Fareed Zakaria of Newsweek said when Israel began these attacks that Israel was justified in doing them but was it smart. This is a great question. Only time will tell, of course. 3. I wouldn't count on it. 4. More on Mel below. Mel's BellsMel Gibson gave a forthright apology and asked for forgiveness. Andrew Sullivan in a bit of overreaching thinks that Gibson should have brought up the Holocaust in his apology and disassociated himself from his Dad's crazy Holocaust denial theories. I'm not sure why, in this apology, anyone would expect Gibson to bring up the Holocaust and his Dad's denial of it. Gibson was addressing his behavior when being pulled over for a DUI, an incident in which the subject of the Holocaust never came up. I thought Gibson's most recent apology was pretty eloquent and upfront about owning up to his behavior and what he needs to do to address it. I don't think he "plays up the recovery card," as Sullivan accuses him. Rather, he says, "There is no excuse, nor should there be any tolerance, for anyone who thinks or expresses any kind of anti-Semitic remark. I want to apologize specifically to everyone in the Jewish community for the vitriolic and harmful words that I said to a law enforcement officer the night I was arrested on a DUI charge." When the Jewish leaders meet with Gibson they should by all means raise the issue of Gibson's previous refusal to disavow his father's insanity about the Holocaust. But, when a public person issues such a forthright apology as Gibson has, I think we do a disservice by attacking it the way Andrew Sullivan did. Gibson showed himself to be an anti-Semite in his behavior last Friday but at least he owned up to it and is seeking ways to address it which is far more than we see most celebrities or politicians do. It's true that the apology may have been written by his publicist and its possible Gibson's apology is merely a device to extricate himself from a catastrophic situation. But, Sullivan and other critics should, at least, recognize that Gibson's apology is a good start even if they keep pushing for Gibson to do more. If they condemn everything Gibson says or does, even the admirable things, people will not pay attention to their larger points. Tuesday, August 01, 2006Accident Claims Plummet, Footage at 11Instapundit pointed last week to an article about a dramatic decrease for claims from insurance companies for auto accidents. He jokes that it's because people are driving faster but notes nobody seems to know why the drop. I'll offer a hypothesis--people's monthly budgets can't handle the increase in rates a claim will cause so they eat the one-time cost of fixing the car themselves. Fuel costs are up. Wages are stagnant, debt has piled up even as interest rates are now rising. The American consumer is cutting where they can and they aren't seeing value in their insurance, more worried about the steep rise in rates they will see. Okay, somebody go do a study on this. More Questions Than AnswersAs the Israeli war with Hezbollah rages on I have more questions than answers: 1. I'm still unclear on what Israel's goal in the attacks are. Do they think they can wipe Hezbollah out? Nobody else seems to believe this is possible. What are the conditions they are hoping to create before a cessation of the military strikes? 2. What will happen in Iraq if Israel and Hezbollah continue to fight for weeks? Will it end up forcing the Shiite leaders from Sistani to Maliki to call for the U.S. to get out? What will the U.S. do? Will this force the U.S. to tell Israel to stop the attacks? Would Israel listen to the U.S.? 3. For those complaining about Israel's attacks, including the firing of rockets on Qana, will the critics at least acknowledge that Hezbollah's game plan is to hide among civilians creating opportunities where Israel kills civilians so as to turn public opinion against Israel? 4. Is Mel Gibson cheering on Hezbollah from his bed in rehab?
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