About Us

Old Thoughts

Fiction

Links

Home

Sam Speak

A Floyd Waterson Production

constellation2.GIF (268 bytes)

"The known is finite,
the unknown infinite;
intellectually we stand on an islet
in the midst of an
illimitable ocean of inexplicability. 
Our business in every

generation is to
relcaim a little more land." 

--T.H. Huxley

samemail.gif (583 bytes)

Site Feed

DoomandGloom.gif (237 bytes)

quotes.GIF (493 bytes) topten.GIF (505 bytes)

Sunday, November 30, 2008

 

I'm Sorry, Dave

Robots technology continues to advance.


Thursday, November 27, 2008

 

Youtube of the Week

Happy Thanksgiving



Wednesday, November 26, 2008

 

A White Swan

Lots of folks claim today's financial crisis is a Black Swan. It is not. In fact, the popularizer of the term, Black Swan, Nassim Taleb, says so himself:

Taleb said the current crisis is a "White Swan'", not a Black Swan, because
it was something bound to happen. "I was expecting the crisis, I was
worried about it,'" Taleb said. "I put my neck and money on the line seeking
protection from it.'"





 

Uh, I Need a Transfer

A while back I wrote that we are "now witnessing the greatest transfer of money in history from the prudent and responsible to the irresponsible, the crooked, the connected and the crazy." Along those lines, Arnold Kling points out the coming transfer of assets due to the defined pension plan problems in our country. New Jersey, for example, has a $60 million hole in their pension plan funding. Kling says:

I am convinced that those of us who save for our own retirement are going to
be taxed to pay for other people's defined-benefit plans. For some reason, this
crime bothers me even more than most other government crimes.

Yeah, me too.

 

Screw the Doom and Gloom

Yes, I'm a purveyer of Doom and Gloom, I collect bits of bad news like Dracula's cape does lint. But, despite the current economic troubles that governments are making worse, long term I am optimistic. That's because of technological advances such as this:

New ways of squeezing out greater efficiency from solar photovoltaic
cells are emerging from computer simulations and lab tests conducted by a team
of physicists and engineers at MIT.

Using computer modeling and a variety of advanced chip-manufacturing techniques, they have applied an antireflection coating to the front, and a novel combination of multi-layered reflective coatings and a tightly spaced array of lines — called a diffraction grating — to the backs of ultrathin silicon films to boost the cells' output by as much as 50 percent.


 

Neanderthal!

Next time you call someone a Neanderthal, they may actually be one. Nicholas Wade, who's 2006 book, Before the Dawn, is a must read, reports that the same techniques scientists used to retrieve the DNA of a woolly mammoth, is also being done for Neanderthals:

The same would be technically possible with Neanderthals, whose full genome
is expected to be recovered shortly, but there would be several ethical issues
in modifying modern human DNA to that of another human species.

I expect we will see this happen in my lifetime, for good or ill.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

 

Stat of the Day

Toyota employs 38,340 people in the United States. There are 1,745 Toyota dealers across the country.

 

Covered with a TARP

Paulson will talk again this morning, undoubtedly announcing policies that will create more uncertainty. Here's the latest TARP scorecard:

Paulson has $40 billion left of the first half of the TARP funds,
having yesterday agreed to inject $20 billion into Citigroup Inc. He previously
committed $250 billion to invest in banks and then brokered a deal providing
insurer
American International Group Inc. $40 billion.


Monday, November 24, 2008

 

Stat of the day

55 percent of credit card users keep a balance on their credit card, up
2 percent from 2007.


The average American with a credit file is responsible for $16,635
in debt, excluding mortages, according to Experian.

Consumption is going down for a reason Deleveraging is the word of the decade. As consumers retrench, GDP is going down. For years, our appetites were greater than our wallets. We are in an income crisis, or more precisely, an expectation crisis. Bush wanted to wage war across the world, spend more domestically and add more entitlements. Financial masters of the universe wanted to earn larger bonuses, gain more moola without creating anything new. Consumers kept up with the Jones's by borrowing, perhaps not aware that the Jones were staying ahead by borrowing too.
If you've got a jones for pain, welcome to the new world.
And yet, this too shall pass. The hangover will hurt but when it is over we will see the world more clearly. We will realize our dancing is not as graceful as we thought, nor our partner as attractive in the cold daylight of a messy bedroom. But, we may be more thoughtful and useful if not quite as much fun. In the meantime, governments the world over aim to cure the hangover with a little hair of the dog. At first we will desperately lap it up but in the long run we'll realize that way lies madness.

 

World Robot Market

The latest info on the rise of robots is here. Actually, the increase is temporarily slowing due to the slowing economy. But, longer term there will be more and more robots, both industrial and personal use robots. A friend is buying them for warehousing use in his company. Some jobs are going away permanently not because they are outsourced to Asia but because they are in sourced to robots.

 

Peter Schiff Makes Mincemeat of CNBC

I think he's right in just about everything he says here, probably even about the dollar, although I have my doubts about other currencies too.


 

Drumming Out Torture

Count me in Kevin Drum's court on how to deal with the Bush Administration's torture policies:

I find myself surprisingly torn by all this. My instinctive reaction is
to turn over every last shred of paper in open court and mercilessly toss into
jail anyone associated in any way with this stuff. But I suspect Obama is
reacting more wisely than me in this matter. Not only would trials and jail
sentences set off a firestorm of protest, but in the end they might not
accomplish much either. That's discouraging as hell to write, but at bottom we
still have a public opinion problem here: like it or not, half the country still
seems to think that torturing al-Qaeda suspects was perfectly
acceptable.


So in the end, perhaps we'll get half of a Truth and Reconciliation
commission: we'll get the truth, but not the reconciliation, since I doubt that
any of the perpetrators of this stuff are inclined to show the slightest remorse
for what they did. I suppose that here in the real world this might be the most
we can expect, but I don't have to like it. And I don't.


Anti-torture folks need to win the public relations battle. Prosecuting the Bush Administration atrocities is not the crucial task. Persuading the American public that torture is wrong and ineffective is what is important.

 

State Gambling

It's stories like this that give one pause about Obama's decision to name Clinton his Secretary of State. It's true that by pulling her into the cabinet Obama defuses her potential role as a troublesome Senator. But, Clinton proved beyond a shadow of a doubt during her campaign that she's not a good manager. And drama surrounds her wherever she goes. I prefer a little less drama in our foreign policy. The State Department is not the place for someone who can't manage and who creates vindictiveness and petty jealousy among her staff. Clinton is certainly smart but this appointment is ripe for regret.
"Keep your friends close and your enemies closer," said Michael Corleone. Let's hope he doesn't have to do this with his new friend at State.



Sunday, November 23, 2008

 

Webb Hedging His Bets

DC Correspondent reports that Senator Jim Webb has replied to his letter urging Webb not to support more bailouts for the auto industry. Webb doesn't say whether he will vote yea or nay:

Thank you for contacting me with your views about federal assistance to domestic automobile manufacturers. I appreciate your taking the time to share your thoughts with me, and I understand the concerns you have raised.

As you know, high energy costs, the ongoing economic crisis, and the current credit crunch have created an environment that threatens U.S. automakers. Proponents of offering financial assistance to U.S. auto manufacturers claim that 1 in every 10 American jobs is tied to the automotive industry. Proponents also argue that a collapse of the major U.S. auto manufacturers would put hundreds of
thousands of autoworkers out of jobs and would send ripples throughout our already struggling economy. On the other hand, opponents of federal assistance to automakers argue that the circumstances now facing the "big three" U.S. manufacturers are a product of corporate mismanagement and poor business decisions and that taxpayer-funded assistance would be unfair. As your U.S. Senator, I will carefully examine any policy proposals related to this matter to ensure that they are fair, that they protect hard-working Americans, and that they strengthen our economy.

As the U.S. Senate debates matters pertaining to the ongoing economic crisis,
please be assured that I will keep your specific views in mind. I hope you continue to share your thoughts with me and my staff in the years ahead.

I also invite you to visit my website at
www.webb.senate.gov for regular updates on issues that are important to Virginia and our nation.

Thank you once again for contacting my office.

Sincerely,

Jim Webb
United States Senator

My guess and fear is that Congress sooner or later will pass an auto bailout, further damaging the U.S. economy by skewering incentives and adding uncertainty.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

 

Who Forgives Vatican?

Vatican forgives Lennon, reads the headline. No word on Lennon's response.

Friday, November 21, 2008

 

Under the Mattresses

Okay, I'll bite and accept the assumption that the market went up500 points today due to the announcement of a Treasury Secretary nominee. Now, someone explain the mechanics of how this worked. Is it because all the money being traded was institutional and these guys know Tim Geithner and think he is going to save our economy? And, if this is really the case, isn't this just more evidence of how idiotic these institutional folks are? And, if so, wouldn't we not want to have our money anywhere near these morons?

 

China Syndrome

At a meeting this week a leader of a large city in China (aren't all cities in China big?--Sam. Well, big even for China standards--Floyd) discussion got around to the financial crisis. The Chinese leader said to us, "America must learn to save." Someone in the meeting, and not your humble correspondent but someone he knows very well, said, "but if we start saving who is going to buy Chinese goods?"
I wonder, but didn't say in the meeting, if the current worldwide bonfire will lead to the legendary de-coupling we here about. China's economy is rapidly slowing and it could fall apart. But, will Asia come out of the current period more tied to each other and less tied to the U.S.? Or, will America still drive the world economy four years from now (we're currently driving it off a cliff but let's hope for nice smooth roads at some future date)?

 

Trusting Government

A court has ordered the release of five "combatants," all of whom are Algerian. Andy McCarthy at National Review notes the complexities of the case and then writes:

It seems pretty clear that the Bush administration did not help
matters here. Nearly seven years ago, the President publicly claimed the
Algerians were planning a bomb attack on the U.S. embassy in Sarajevo.
Last month, however, the Justice Department suddenly informed the Court that it
was no longer relying on that information. We've seen this sort of thing
happen too many times over the last seven years, and the effect can only be to
reduce the confidence of the court and the public that the government is
in command of the relevant facts and can be trusted to make thoughtful decisions.

Emphasis mine. Andy McCarthy is allegedly conservative and writes for the allegedly conservative National Review. One would think that it would be obvious to such that government is not in command of relevant facts and can't be trusted to make thoughtful decisions. Isn't a healthy disdain for the power of government part of the conservative DNA? Unfortunately, it hasn't been for at least the last eight years.
Of course, I don't mean to pick on government here. One does not want to give unfettered power to any entity. Checks and balances. Remember those? We know, conservatives especially should understand, that giving an entity the power to determine whether someone is guilty or not, is ripe for mistakes and corruption. That conservatives were so willing to trust government with such powers, even if it was people they voted for, was madness.


The detainee issue is certainly challenging and it will be interesting to see what the Obama Administration does. But, one of the principles for developing policy going forward is that small, secret, all powerful entities do not have the right to be judge, jury and executioner.

 

Follow the Money

Down the Drain? Here's where Paulson's been spending your money, er, uh, actually your children and grandchildren's money.


$15,000,000,000Bank of America Corporation
$3,000,000,000Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
$25,000,000,000Citigroup Inc.
$10,000,000,000The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
$25,000,000,000JPMorgan Chase & Co.
$10,000,000,000Morgan Stanley
$2,000,000,000State Street Corporation
$25,000,000,000Wells Fargo & Company
$10,000,000,000Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
$17,000,000Bank of Commerce Holdings
$16,369,0001st FS Corporation
$298,737,000UCBH Holdings, Inc.
$1,576,000,000Northern Trust Corporation
$3,500,000,000SunTrust Banks, Inc.
$9,000,000Broadway Financial Corporation
$200,000,000Washington Federal Inc.
$3,133,640,000BB&T Corp.
$151,500,000Provident Bancshares Corp.
$214,181,000Umpqua Holdings Corp.
$2,250,000,000Comerica Inc.
$3,500,000,000Regions Financial Corp.
$3,555,199,000Capital One Financial Corporation
$866,540,000First Horizon National Corporation
$1,398,071,000Huntington Bancshares
$2,500,000,000KeyCorp
$300,000,000Valley National Bancorp
$1,400,000,000Zions Bancorporation
$1,715,000,000Marshall & Ilsley Corporation
$6,599,000,000U.S. Bancorp
$361,172,000TCF Financial Corporation

BTW, CitiGroup, proud recipient of $25 billion, is thinking about putting itself up for sale or auctioning off pieces of itself. Good times.


 

YouTube of the Week

As I write, markets in Asia are up. Nonetheless, the Youtube of the Week (a new feature here at SamSpeak developed during intensive meetings at our worldwide headquarters) is No Depression by Uncle Tupelo during a live performance in 1992.


 

Analysis of SamSpeak

Yep, like just about every other blogger out there, I was suckered in by this site that reads your blog and analyzes what type of a person you are. Here's the analysis based on the content of SamSpeak:

The independent and problem-solving type. They are especially attuned to the
demands of the moment are masters of responding to challenges that arise
spontaneously. They generally prefer to think things out for themselves and
often avoid inter-personal conflicts. The Mechanics enjoy working together with
other independent and highly skilled people and often like seek fun and action
both in their work and personal life. They enjoy adventure and risk such as in
driving race cars or working as policemen and firefighters.


Thursday, November 20, 2008

 

An Income Crisis

The ever sage old man Richard Russell, makes an important point about the current crisis:

...this is not a credit crisis we're in. It's an income crisis. I've been
harping on the need for income for the last few years. Next year, lack of or
loss of income is going to be the single greatest problem in the nation.
Remember ALL debt must be serviced (no debt service = bankruptcy). You must have income in order to service debt. A pink slip = loss of income. A job, a job, my
kingdom for a job.

Yes, the credit markets apparently froze (there are a number of signs they are now thawing, even as economic winter descends) but the real reason for our mess is a lack of income. Even in the boomlet years post 2002, consumption was driven by debt, by people using their homes as ATMs and by wielding their credit cards as chips at a casino. People did not have enough money to live the life they wanted to lead...so they borrowed. Government did not have the money to cover its promises to interest groups large and small. So, they borrowed. Yep, it's not a credit crisis. It's an income crisis. Or, perhaps, an expectations crisis.

 

Giant Game of Chicken

More than once we've remarked in this space, in conversations and on panels we've participated on, that for years the world's economies have been playing a giant game of chicken. Wherever the U.S. dollar traveled, up or down in value, other countries tried to keep their currencies lower so they could export to what was the giant Venus Flytrap U.S. consumer. Japan was notorious for doing this. China, of course, has kept their currency down. Nearly every country was doing the same. It all seemed so shangri la. They export. We buy. Dollars out. Dollars back in. But, it was in many ways a mirage, an economic chimera. And our eyes are now being opened today. The New Republic has an interesting article on the origins of this scheme, Bretton Woods, and its future.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

 

Doom and Gloom

Via Calculated Risk, we present this graph:



 

R&D Expenditures


For your statistical perusement.



 

The Future is Now

Doctor's have transplanted a woman's windpipe using her own stem cells. We wrote recently about how different the world will be four years from now. Just about everyday you can see evidence of this. Keep your eyes open and your bottle handy, it's going to be a helluva ride.

 

Information is Ignorance

As policy leaders continue to tackle the financial crisis, it's important to recognize that the housing bubble was not a surprise. We here at SamSpeak have, of course, claimed credit for seeing it coming but, in truth, so did many others.

A Factiva search of the top 50 newspapers in the U.S. returns 268 stories
referring to a housing or real-estate bubble in 2003. In 2004 that number
increases to 369 and in 2005 it swells to 1,608. Going month by month in 2005,
there’s a steady increase in “bubble” stories in the first part of the year,
coming to a peak in June.

So, as we look to figure out how to avoid such calamities in the future we shouldn't argue that we couldn't recognize the bubble. The question is why, when we knew there was a bubble, so many of us did not make any adjustments. Not the lords of Wall Street. Not the denizens of Congress nor the regulators. Certainly for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac there were political reasons to keep walking off the cliff. At Wall Street, presumably short term padding of pockets trumped long term stability. Let the analyzing begin, but let it start with the right premise.

 

Savings Rate

How high will this go? Will it get up to 10% as we deleverage? Will the Chinese savings rate decrease from its current 30 to 40%? As always, we wait and see.



Tuesday, November 18, 2008

 

Editing the Chapter

Some are arguing we must bail out the big three car companie because the frozen credit markets mean Chapter 11 bankruptcy won't work. But, if that's the case, wouldn't it make more sense to facilitate the bankrupty to work around the frozen credit markets than to do create a whole new bail out? Matt Yglesias and others are arguing this:

Incidentally, if it’s really the case, as Paul Krugman
says
, that “If the economy as a whole were in reasonably good shape
and the credit markets were functioning, Chapter 11 would be the way to go” but
trouble in the credit markets makes that impossible, I don’t understand why we
can’t use federal funds to facilitate GM’s transition into Chapter 11 protection
rather than a full-scale bailout designed to avoid bankruptcy.

Make sense, no? So what would be the argument against this?

If unusual circumstances mean we can’t do Chapter 11 and we need
extraordinary congressional intervention, then it seems to me that the
extraordinary intervention should be aimed at making Chapter 11 possible. Of
course key GM stakeholders on both the management and the union side would
prefer to avoid that scenario. But the reason they’d prefer to avoid it is
precisely that they’d prefer to avoid major restructuring.

Monday, November 17, 2008

 

The Moondoggies

I wrote about these guys a while back. Download them baby. Go see them live. The Moondoggies.


 

Please Accept This As Payment

Funny stuff. Very funny.

 

Education and Health Care

Which two industries have the highest rates of inflation? In which two industries are consumers most divorced from the costs of the services they are enjoying? Yep, education and health care. In the former, we have set up a loan system so that most students aren't paying for their actual costs of education. In health care, the quasi-socialist, worker-oriented system we labor under also means we patients don't actually pay the direct costs. And so, those costs go ever upwards. Unfortunately, my guess is that in the coming years we will make this problem worse, not better.

Friday, November 14, 2008

 

Rallies for Gay Marriage

They're happening tomorrow. Here's the low down. I'm on the road or would join in.

 

Other Car Companies

Popular Mechanics has a timely article on 1o new car companies. If you give the big three billions aren't you unfairly penalizing these businesses?

 

Energy Prediction

The International Energy Agency has released their latest forecast, looking all the way to 2030. I'll bet you their predictions are laughably incorrect. By 2030, the energy world will look far different than their simple-minded extrapolations.

 

Dinner with Poi

For years I have been especially fond of the band, Poi Dog Pondering. Never heard of them? Well, few have, alas. But, trust me, they are one of the great bands nobody knows. I first heard of them in the early 90s when I lived in Washington, D.C. I thought for sure they'd be huge. They were and are one of the great live acts of all time. They developed a cult following nationally and a devoted local following in Chicago where they are now based, but little else. It used to bother me when talented musicians, writers and film makers didn't make it. But, now, I just the fact that I get to enjoy them on a smaller scale.

At any rate, the maestro of Poi Dog, Frank Orall, is apparently a great cook as well as being a talented musican. You can book him to cook and play music at your next dinner party. And, if you want a little preview of what it's like to have Frank play at your small dinner party, well, in the age of Youtube, just watch on the Internet.



If it weren't for this damn financial crisis, I'd hire him right now to fly to Seattle and cook. And play. (HT: our man in Seattle)



Thursday, November 13, 2008

 

Obama CTO

I learn from our man in Seattle (or one of them anyway) that Obama is going to name a Chief Technology Officer. A keen idea. Technology, as we've noted here more than once, is affecting more of our world and will infuse public policy. The web site obambacto.org, started by some Seattle techies, let's you propose what the top priorities should be for the new CTO. Of the ones so far proposed on the site, I'd probably vote for "more X-Prize type contests." Check it out and make your own proposals.

 

Help! Thief!

In watching Paulson's press conference on Wednesday, and in reading the continued efforts of the forthcoming Obama Administration and its allies in Congress to "save" the U.S. auto industry, it's become quite clear that we are now witnessing the greatest transfer of money in history from the prudent and responsible to the irresponsible, the crooked, the connected and the crazy.

It's no surprise, I suppose, that a country that acquiesced in the arrest of American citizens, holding them incommunicado without a right to trial and torturing them, would also lay back and allow the current thievery of both freedom and assets from large portions of our country. Our government has become a Robin Hood on behalf of the banking and industry lobbyists, of sub prime borrowers and grabby malcontents. Frier Tuck laughs in the background as Paulson thrusts a sword to our throats, demanding our money while threatening the collapse of our economy.

But, let's think back to those halcyon days of the bail out bill. Paulson demanded $700 billion to buy bad assets of financial institutions, insisting Armageddon was upon us unless Congress passed this bill pronto. Now, it turns out the end of days can be avoided without buying bad assets, our grim reaping Treasury Secretary tells us. Instead, Paulson raises his scythe and tells us we must continue to "inject" capital into financial institutions, including credit card lenders, to avoid death itself. Nevermind, that the authority to do this was buried in the bail out bill and was not discussed during the brief debate of our go-along Congress.

Let's think through our economic difficulties a moment. Paulson, who was part of the problem on Wall Street before he became part of the problem in Washington, basically went before the public and said the only thing to fear is that we are not scared enough. He painted broad brushes of destruction, and then said he needed billions to restore the confidence he had just smashed into a million pieces with his dire warnings. Now, for the last two months, our lovely federal government has swayed across the policy road like a drunk on his way to last call, changing policies at the whim of a small group of men behind closed doors. And then they wonder why financial institutions are not acting, not lending, why one market freezes and another sells off. When one does not know what the rules of the game will be later in the afternoon, much less tomorrow, one tends to pull back from the Board.

We are in extreme financial difficulties, no doubt. In fact, if dear SamSpeak readers recall, we said last January we were in a recession. But, let me just humbly suggest that trying to scare the bejesus out of us and constantly changing the rules will not only not fix the problem but will make it immeasurably worse.

In times such as these, we reach for the bottle and laugh at our leaders, perhaps we hope, some day to their face.

 

Must Reading

Via Marginal Revolution, we read this about the mad scramble for the billions being handed out by Paulson and company:

When the government said it would spend $700 billion to rescue the
nation’s financial industry, it seemed to be an ocean of money. But after one of
the biggest lobbying free-for-alls in memory, it suddenly looks like a dwindling
pool.


Many new supplicants are lining up for an infusion of capital as
billions of dollars are channeled to other beneficiaries like the
American
International Group
, and possibly soon American
Express
...

The Treasury Department is under siege by an army of hired guns for
banks,
savings and loan associations and insurers — as well as for improbable
candidates like a Hispanic business group representing plumbing and home-heating specialists. That last group wants the Treasury to hire its members as
contractors to take care of houses that the government may end up owning through buying distressed mortgages.

Uh, some of us warned about this kind of thing. The bail out bill was ill-conceived, ill-managed by Congress and destined for catastrophe.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

 

Ballboy

I discovered Ballboy a few years ago when I heard the song A Europewide Search for Love on KEXP. I quickly bought the CD and fell for songs like I Lost You But I Found Country Music and Sex is Boring. But, I'd forgotten them until using the Genius function in iTunes which recommended their new disc, I Worked on the Ships. And now I have a new favorite song, Picture Show. Check it out. And, for your viewing and listening pleasure, here's I Lost You But I Found Country Music


 

The World in Four Years

Four years from now, the new President will be readying his/her transition team or Obama will be preparing for a second term. But, we are not here to ponder the politics of 2012. Rather, we wonder what will be the environment in which he or she will operate in four years, and we predict that it will be a very different one from today's, due in large part to technological changes.

If Moore's Law continues for the next four years, as it most certainly will, then our computers will be four times more powerful than they are today. Connections will be faster and increasingly wireless. A whole host of changes are in store for us. There's a good chance within four years that we'll be talking to our cell phones more than typing on them. The wireless connections to the Internet will be far faster. According to this, you'll be able to do all sorts of things with your phone soon.

The much lampooned use of holographic technology during CNN's election night coverage also is an indication of what's to come. Yes, CNN will still be silly four years from now but visual displays will be more impressive in the coming years. Your phone may double as a projector. 3-D will be far more common in movie theaters (James Cameron's 3-D Avatar will be released next year) and perhaps even in the home.




There's an outside shot that within four years cancer will be a manageable disease. Certainly this will be the case by the end of Obama's second term, should he win reelection.
The self-driving car will be here five to eight years from now so it won't be ready by the inauguration day 2013 but it won't be too long after that either. This will, of course, be a revolutionary change that the President and most governments won't be prepared for.
Speaking of driving, it will be interesting to see what percentage of cars on the road are electric in 2012. In addition, by that time, solar will almost be competitive on the market, or at least only a year or so away.
There's a pretty good chance that by 2012 a large number of us will be having our personal genomes mapped, and the age of personalized medicine will just be beginning.
In other words, Obama is facing a changing world today but the president who wins election or reelection in 2012 will be operating in an even faster changing one.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

 

The Limited Government Argument

P.J. O'Rourke sums it up for conservatives in his We Blew It article:

What will destroy our country and us is not the financial crisis but the fact that liberals think the free market is some kind of sect or cult, which conservatives have asked Americans to take on faith. That's not what the free market is. The free market is just a measurement, a device to tell us what people are willing to pay for any given thing at any given moment. The free market is a bathroom scale. You may hate what you see when you step on the scale. "Jeeze, 230 pounds!" But you can't pass a law making yourself weigh 185. Liberals think you can. And voters--all the voters, right up to the tippy-top corner office of Goldman Sachs--think so too.

We, the conservatives, who do understand the free market, had the responsibility to--as it were--foreclose upon this mess. The market is a measurement, but that measuring does not work to the advantage of a nation or its citizens unless the assessments of volume, circumference, and weight are conducted with transparency and under the rule of law. We've had the rule of law largely in our hands since 1980. Where is the transparency? It's one more job we botched.


 

The Demonizing Paul Krugman

Yesterday, Paul Krugman conducted the kind of mendacious attack he's always accusing others of doing. Far be it for me to disagree with a Nobel Prize winning economist (he surely has forgotten more about economics than I'll ever know) but let me take a crack at it anyway. First, Krugman too often demonizes people who don't share his opinions and he does so again here when he writes about those who think Roosevelt was not so successful in fighting the Great Depression as he is given credit for: "most of what you hear along those lines is based on deliberate misrepresentation of the facts." That's a bunch of crap.

Most of those people who are saying Roosevelt made the depression worse are doing so because they believe it not because they are purposefully lying. Either Krugman knows this and just wants to make the other side look evil or he doesn't know this which means he is an ignorant fool.
And, most of those who believe Roosevelt made things worse are saying so because of his intrusions into the private sector and creating a climate of uncertainty for business, not because Roosevelt created a fiscal stimulus. Amity Shlaes recent book, The Forgotten Man, in part argues this. At least Krugman gets right that Hoover was not conservative (if that word has any meaning nowadays) in his approach to tackling the Great Depression. Hoover raised taxes, demonized businesses and created huge new federal programs, not to mention he didn't veto Smoot-Hawley.

One interesting thing about the Great Depression is that 70 years later economists are still arguing about what caused it and what got us out of it. This is an important lesson for today's crisis--your kids and grandkids are likely to be reading books (that will be purely digital and not in print, btw) about origins and causes of today's financial crisis. Krugman talks about "the definitive study of fiscal policy in the 30's". What he really means is that it was the study that best comports to his reading of the depression.

Third, I don't think it is at all clear that the causes of today's financial crisis are equivalent to the causes of the Great Depression. In fact, I think, they may be very different causes, with the caveat that no one really understand completely what is going on today. There certainly was no lack of economic stimulus leading up to today's credit crisis. State, local and federal governments have been increasing spending at a rapid clip for years. The federal government ran up large deficits which are now becoming historically large. Governments at every level have borrowed from the future to pay for goodies today. The federal government literally borrowed (the deficit and national debt), local and state governments have done so through inadequately funding pensions and in other ways. In other words, we have sustained our lifestyles by asking those not yet born to pay for it.

Now, the solution Krugman and others advocate is to do more of the same. Maybe their rampant Keynesian will work. Or maybe it will make things worse. I do agree that we need to rebuild and build new infrastructure in the U.S. If I were in charge, that's where I'd direct government spending, not as a stimulus (which it isn't) but as a necessity. Of course, at the same time I'd cut spending elsewhere, including by reducing our military commitments. But, to follow Krugman's thinking (he argues that World War II caused the end of the depression), maybe the best way out of our current economic mess is to declare war on either China, Russia, or both. In which case you parents out there may want to send your children to Canada pronto.

Monday, November 10, 2008

 

Big Trouble in Big China

In DC last week I heard more rumblings of bad news in China. Word comes today that like the rest of the world they are planning a big stimulus for their economy. All those Americans who hate China and bemoan alleged loss of American jobs to China might get their wish: a bad Chinese economy. But, Marginal Revolution notes:

Is there a gentle way to glide down from 10 to 5 percent growth? I
tend to doubt it. Are you prepared for a China with negative economic
growth for a few years (or more)? I tend to doubt that too.

Yep. Be careful what you wish for.

 

Feeling Lucky

Summarizing my thoughts from election night in DC:

Feeling Lucky

"You are so lucky to be here," the woman said to me, clutching her boyfriend's arm, her eyes still moist with tears of joy. On Tuesday, November 4, I was in Washington, D.C. on a business trip, staying in a hotel but a few blocks from the White House.

I watched Barack Obama's speech in the small bar of my hotel, empty but for the employees of the Inn, minorities all, who came into the bar to watch the speech. If there was a bed to be turned down, a call to be answered, it could wait. One of the hotel employees was a man from Guyana. He was not yet a citizen so could not vote but knew the electoral college better than any CNN analyst, explaining to me in scientific precision, the likely total of Obama's electoral votes.

As we watched the speech, word started spreading that throngs were headed to the White House. I planned on going to the Lincoln Memorial that night but detoured to the White House first where indeed thousands of people were gathering.

Many at the White House were college students from George Washington University and Georgetown, the former is located in the White House neighborhood, the latter within a short cross country run of collegiate exuberance. That they first thought to go the White House, rather than the Lincoln Memorial--a far more symbolic place on this night, a hallowed ground that commemorates the President who freed the slaves and the site of one of the great speeches of our country's history, delivered by a man who made Barack Obama possible--may speak ill of the education they are receiving.

But amongst the collegiate elites were local DC black Americans and other minorities with joy planted on their faces like a bed of roses. I have never seen smiles so wide and in some ways disbelieving nor tears so salted with joy.

I took a taxi down to the Lincoln Memorial. Only a small group of people were there, including four medical students from Howard University wearing their Barack Obama shirts, posing in front of Lincoln to get their picture taken. We read the Gettysburg Address and the 2nd Inaugural speech. We stood where Martin Luther King delivered his I Have a Dream speech. We looked down on the Mall where the Washington Monument is displayed in all its phallic glory in the Reflecting Pool, at a mostly empty field that leads up to the Capital. And in the distance, a mile or so away, we could hear the continued roar of the celebrators at the White House, and, I think, I heard echoes of King's speech in that night's din, of hope fulfilled.

The next morning as I walked to my meetings a woman was on her cell phone saying, "there's no newspapers anywhere." I looked at the newsstands around me. Empty. Throughout the day I made a point of looking at newsstands and in stores and she was right, there was not a newspaper to be found. People wanted a piece of that night, to hold with them, to grasp close, to remember what they felt.

At a busy intersection (taxis and cars driving by, honking their horns, screaming their lungs out rolled-down windows), on my way back to my hotel that night is where I came across the woman who told me I was lucky. They were just regular folks as some candidate might say on the campaign trail. DC natives. The woman held onto her boyfriend's arm tight, her eyes still damp from tears. The man smiled. Just smiled, looking into the night. We talked about the events of the evening and at one point I told them I was from Seattle. That is when the woman excitedly said to me, "Oh, you are so lucky to be here tonight." She wanted me to be a part of this, to perhaps understand what she was feeling.

Tomorrow, and the next day--the coming weeks, months and years--I am sure I will find things about the new administration to criticize. I'll disagree with an economic policy and despair about some issue with which I disagree with Obama. But, we will always have the night of Tuesday, November 4. I will always remember how lucky I was to be there that night.

Lucky indeed.

 

Self-Driving Car Update

From Israel comes word of an aftermarket product developed by a company that makes you and your car smarter:
The Netherlands-based Mobileye Vision Technologies has developed an
inexpensive hi-tech driver assistance system called Mobileye AWS (advance
warning system), which can provide drivers with early warnings of potential road
hazards.

This is another step on the way to the self-driving car (5 to 8 years away). In the meantime, this company's technology is pretty keen:

It also features Headway Monitoring and Warning, providing distance
indication to drivers and Lane Departure Warning that alerts drivers when they
inadvertently drift from their lane due to drowsiness or other factors.

Other technologies in different stages of development include lane
change assist that monitors the speed and distance of overtaking vehicles and
tells you when it is safe to switch lanes, and pedestrian protection that
identifies people in the vehicle's path as well as those on the sidewalk who may
enter the roadway.

Last week, voters in my region approved the expansion of a light rail project. I'm willing to make a bet that I will have a self-driving car before this latest light rail line is up and running.


 

Bailing Out On The U.S. Auto Industry

The U.S. automakers, at least the big ones, are angling for more federal dough. Today's welfare queens are big corporations. Obama, in his first news conference, indicated he will be providing more money to GM and Ford. The premise behind this policy is that we will lose our auto industry without federal cash thrown into the big car makers tills and that the federal government will be able to facilitate innovation at these companies. The premise is almost certainly wrong. What the bail out will do is discourage new car companies forming, bringing with them much needed new ideas, structures and innovation.

As I was parking the other day, a strange car pulled in next to me. The woman driving it noticed me staring at her car and excitedly told me about her new Zenn, an electric car built by a Canadian company. It struck me that building new cars is not so difficult nowadays that new companies cannot arise. Tesla is another example. Manufacturing needs to become like the IT industry where companies such as Google rise creating whole new paradigms. Too much of government policy protects our old industry stalwarts, whether through labor policy or bailouts. Let the bad old die and the good new rise.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

 

They Have a Dream


Four Howard University medical students celebrating after the presidential election.

I'm in Washington, DC for work and watched the crowds celebrating after Barack Obama's historic victory tonight. The large crowd at the White House (a few blocks from my hotel) was boistrous but the far smaller group at the Lincoln Memorial was more poignant and reflective. The attached photo is blurry (a reflection of my cell phone camera, my photograhic skills and the celebratory drinks of the evening, not necessarily in that order) but I think still conveys what these four young medical students were feeliing tonight. At least for tonight, as King said, "their valleys were exalted and their hills and mountains made low."


Let us not wallow in the valley of despair, I say to you today, my friends.
And so even though we face the difficulties of today and tomorrow, I still have a dream. It is a dream deeply rooted in the American dream.
I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal."
I have a dream that one day on the red hills of Georgia, the sons of former slaves and the sons of former slave owners will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood.
I have a dream that one day even the state of Mississippi, a state sweltering with the heat of injustice, sweltering with the heat of oppression, will be transformed into an oasis of freedom and justice.
I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.
I have a dream today!
I have a dream that one day, down in Alabama, with its vicious racists, with its governor having his lips dripping with the words of "interposition" and "nullification" -- one day right there in Alabama little black boys and black girls will be able to join hands with little white boys and white girls as sisters and brothers.
I have a dream today!
I have a dream that one day every valley shall be exalted, and every hill and mountain shall be made low, the rough places will be made plain, and the crooked places will be made straight; "and the glory of the Lord shall be revealed and all flesh shall see it together."²
This is our hope, and this is the faith that I go back to the South with.
With this faith, we will be able to hew out of the mountain of despair a stone of hope. With this faith, we will be able to transform the jangling discords of our nation into a beautiful symphony of brotherhood. With this faith, we will be able to work together, to pray together, to struggle together, to go to jail together, to stand up for freedom together, knowing that we will be free one day.
And this will be the day -- this will be the day when all of God's children will be able to sing with new meaning:
My country 'tis of thee, sweet land of liberty, of thee I sing.
Land where my fathers died, land of the Pilgrim's pride,
From every mountainside, let freedom ring!
And if America is to be a great nation, this must become true.
And so let freedom ring from the prodigious hilltops of New Hampshire.
Let freedom ring from the mighty mountains of New York.
Let freedom ring from the heightening Alleghenies of Pennsylvania.
Let freedom ring from the snow-capped Rockies of Colorado.
Let freedom ring from the curvaceous slopes of California.
But not only that:
Let freedom ring from Stone Mountain of Georgia.
Let freedom ring from Lookout Mountain of Tennessee.
Let freedom ring from every hill and molehill of Mississippi.
From every mountainside, let freedom ring.
And when this happens, when we allow freedom ring, when we let it ring from every village and every hamlet, from every state and every city, we will be able to speed up that day when all of God's children, black men and white men, Jews and Gentiles, Protestants and Catholics, will be able to join hands and sing in the words of the old Negro spiritual:
Free at last! Free at last!
Thank God Almighty, we are free at last!³

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

 

Going Up

The hotel I'm staying at has a manual elevator. The elevator operator couldn't be more excited about the election, telling me it is historic, that Barack Obama is definitely winning. He is a minority. In fact, all the hotel workers are minorities. All are expecting and Obama victory and all are nearly giddy.

 

Election Day: Meet the New Boss


Monday, November 03, 2008

 

Capital Speak

I'm in the nation's capital this week. I plan on posting but you never know given the work and social stuff going on. I do plan on election night to hang out with SamSpeak's DC correspondent when we will delve into the big issues of this world, including the election, over many a drink and will glean all the wisdom I can from our man in DC.
Also, at some point that evening, I plan to make it to the Lincoln Memorial. I drove by it on the way in from the airport and it took on special meaning with the possibility of a black president being elected on Tuesday. More soon.

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

archives

You are visitor number