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Sam Speak

A Floyd Waterson Production

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"The known is finite,
the unknown infinite;
intellectually we stand on an islet
in the midst of an
illimitable ocean of inexplicability. 
Our business in every

generation is to
relcaim a little more land." 

--T.H. Huxley

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Tuesday, November 24, 2009

 

Europe Many Years Later

I've just returned from Spain. On the rare occasions when I came upon the news while traveling over there, all was focused on the European football match fixing scandal plus the French winning a controversial match against Ireland in World Cup qualifying play. Emotions were high on both issues. It was great. Last century Europeans killed each other in great wars. Today, they argue over soccer. Things are getting better all the time.

Monday, November 09, 2009

 

Break'n

I'll be indisposed for the next couple weeks. Likely no posts until November 24. Enjoy our little globe in the meantime.

Friday, November 06, 2009

 

Second Most Important Story of the Week

Kevin Drum nails it. Read it. People need to stop trusting the authorities so damn much.

 

Go Green

Lost in all the other drama of the week were the continued protests in Iran. This is one small bit of footage that shows what the protesters are up against. It is a sad and outraged video of the week.


Thursday, November 05, 2009

 

Politics as Usual

Elected officials are pressuring the FDIC to go slow in closing small community banks. As Calculated Risk points out, politics as usual doesn't cut it in this financial crisis.

This is backwards. By moving slowly, the FDIC is tainting all small banks
and making it more difficult for them to raise capital (ht Pat). In addition,
healthy banks are holding on to capital to try to buy assets from the FDIC at a
discount, compared to the cost of a similar new loan.

The sooner the FDIC completes the process of closing failed banks, the better for the remaining banks and the economy.


Wednesday, November 04, 2009

 

Another Self Driving Car Update

Two in one week, a good sign about the coming of the self-driving car. Today, we read about Stanford readying a version of a self-driving car to travel at top speeds to the top of Pike's Peak.


The mechanical engineering students are creating an autonomous -- or
driverless -- car that they plan to race up and down the treacherous Pikes Peak
highway in the Rocky Mountains next year.

The vehicle is the latest creation of a Stanford team, funded in part by Volkswagen, that in recent years has won awards for speed and manoeuvrability in competitions among unmanned cars.

The students say programming a car to run by itself up a curving mountain road is more than simply an engineering exercise -- it's a way of creating and testing safety systems they hope one day will be used in all vehicles.

"If we can design a car that can autonomously go up Pikes Peak, we can design a car that can take over when a driver falls asleep," said
Kirstin Talvala, one of the students.

 

Kindle

I broke down and bought a Kindle in anticipation of an upcoming trip. It's enroute. Last I saw on Amazon, it had left Illinois. One of the neat things about the device is that even as it sits in a box in a truck, I can order books on Amazon that will download wirelessly into my Kindle. When it arrives I'll already have a number of books loaded up on it.

The downside is I keep finding books to order that are not available on the Kindle, quite a few really. For example, Pozen's "Too Big to Save: How to Fix the U.S. Financial System" is not available on the Kindle. This is not some obscure book. It's recently released. Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged is also not available.*

I've been ordering a variety of free books, including Origins of the Species and the Canterbury Tales. I'll be curious when I receive my Kindle if free electronic books are very well done.

Finally, I ordered an old Donald Westlake book that one never sees in a brick and mortar store. That alone may be worth the price of the Kindle. I'll report back, of course.

*I had never read it and figured I was too old to enjoy it but a friend suggested I check it out so I started reading an old hardcover my Dad gave me many years ago. But, I don't want to lug that door stop on my trip. So far, I find Rand melodramatic but it does have a certain charm. Of course, I'm only a fifth of the way through the 1000 pages so we'll see if the charm lasts.

 

The Conservative Defense of Stimulus

Bruce Bartlett makes it:

Most economists do not accept the do-nothing theory. They believe that
government must play an active role in stimulating growth when the economy is
suffering from a large, sustained deflation. Government spending must compensate
for the fall in private spending that results from a deflation--people and
businesses will put off buying when they think prices will be lower in the
future. Only when spending is again rising will monetary policy become
effective; until then it is like pushing on a string to get money circulating
and prices rising again.

In the 1930s, there were a number of economists who argued strenuously for a do-nothing policy. But as the Great Depression dragged on and collapsed in 1937--when conservatives were successful in having the federal government slash the budget deficit (it fell from 5.5% of GDP in 1936 to 0% in 1938)--they lost credibility. Economists today generally believe that it was the unprecedented deficits resulting from World War II that actually ended the Great Depression.


Tuesday, November 03, 2009

 

Self-Driving Car Update

The Singularity Institue has posted videos from their recent conference, including Brad Templeton's talk on self-driving cars. Templeton calls AI for self-driving cars not Artificial General Intelligence but Artificial Horse Intelligence. The general consensus of the speech is that the technology will be possible by 2020, longer than what I have been predicting but still not that long from now. The big news of the talk is the X-Prize folks are looking at establishing a prize around self-driving car technology. This may be what is needed to get to the next level of self-driving car technology.

Monday, November 02, 2009

 

That's a lot of groceries

I heard today that 25% of Koreans buy their groceries online. This is helped by Korea's far superior broadband speeds compared to the U.S. It's yet another metric showing how far behind America is falling behind other countries. Soon the only thing we'll be ahead in is debt. BTW, I've been thinking of using Amazon.com's grocery service which so far is only available here in the Seattle area. I will not be dissuaded by low broadband speeds.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

 

Who Controls Whom?

Technology Review tells us the mouse and keyboard are passe:

It's a good time to be communicating with computers. No longer are we constrained by the mouse and keyboard--touch screens and gesture-based controllers are becoming increasingly common. A startup called Emotiv Systems even sells a cap that reads brain activity, allowing the wearer to control a computer game with her thoughts.

Now, researchers at Microsoft, the University of Washington in Seattle, and the University of Toronto in Canada have come up with another way to interact with computers: a muscle-controlled interface that allows for hands-free, gestural interaction.

A band of electrodes attach to a person's forearm and read electrical activity from different arm muscles. These signals are then correlated to specific hand gestures, such as touching a finger and thumb together, or gripping an object tighter than normal. The researchers envision using the technology to change songs in an MP3 player while running or to play a game like Guitar Hero without the usual plastic controller.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

 

Strange Worlds

Via Accelerating Future we learn that mole rats can't get cancer and now scientists think they know why.

The findings, presented in today's issue of the Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, show that the mole rat's cells express a gene called p16
that makes the cells "claustrophobic," stopping the cells' proliferation when
too many of them crowd together, cutting off runaway growth before it can start.
The effect of p16 is so pronounced that when researchers mutated the cells to
induce a tumor, the cells' growth barely changed, whereas regular mouse cells
became fully cancerous.

"We think we've found the reason these mole rats don't get cancer, and it's a bit of a surprise," say Vera Gorbunova and Andrei Seluanov, professors of biology at the University of Rochester and lead investigators on the discovery. "It's very early to speculate about the implications, but if the effect of p16 can be simulated in humans we might have a way to halt cancer before it starts."


I have a sudden urge to go underground.

Monday, October 26, 2009

 

China Energy Improvements

Another area the United States risks falling behind China are efforts at energy efficiency and developing cleaner energy.

The private company is part of a growing drive by China to work out a way to
check the rapid growth of its massive emissions of greenhouse gases. Seeking to
transform an economy heavily dependent upon coal for electric power and
industrial production, the government has closed down old cement and coal
plants, subsidized row upon row of new wind turbines and taken other measures.

Still, China has taken significant steps in the past five years. It removed subsidies for motor fuel, which now costs more than it does in the United States; its fuel-efficiency standard for new urban vehicles is 36.7 miles per gallon, a level the United States will not reach for seven years. It has set high efficiency standards for new coal plants; the United States has none. It has set new energy-efficiency standards for buildings. It has targeted its 1,000 top emitters of greenhouse gases to boost energy efficiency by 20 percent. And it has shut down many older, inefficient industrial boilers and power plants.


It won't be a smooth road and there are some signs that China's economy may be in a bubble but it's nonsense that China is doing nothing to clean up their environment.

Friday, October 23, 2009

 

Video of the Week

I've been watching the fun documentary on IFC this week about Monty Python. This, of course, has driven me to YouTube to watch favorite clips of their work. I'd have to say the stoning scene in the Life of Brian is in my top three and is the video of the week:


Wednesday, October 21, 2009

 

1931?

Jim Manzi at National Review makes a similar point to the one I made the other day. Are we really free and clear of a second great depression?

In the Crash of 1929, the Dow lost 48% of its value. Six months later it
rallied back 48% (because this was from a starting point half as high, this
meant it got back 52% of the loss from the Crash). In 2007–2009, the Dow lost
54% of its value. It has now rallied back 54%, or in other words, it has
regained 45% of this loss in value.

Japan has gone through a similar process of dealing with an exploded real-estate bubble. The Nikkei hit a peak of about 39,000 in 1989. It has moved downwards in a sawtooth pattern for the past 20 years, with big rallies in 95–96, 98–99, and 03–07. Today, 20 years after its peak, the Nikkei is at about 10,000.

Again, I don't necessarily think this is a second great depression we're in but I also don't think we know yet.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

 

Interesting Sentences

I found these to fit the title:

Yet according to the CIA World Factbook, the median age in Afghanistan is
17.6. The culture is old, but the population is a teenager. Most Afghans today
probably had not reached puberty when al-Qaeda launched the 9/11 attacks. Eight years later, Afghanistan is more an illiterate kid than a country. The median
age in the U.S. is 36.7. In addition to the tremendous societal disconnect
between Americans and Afghans, there would be a generational gap even if those
distant children were Americans.

The writer, Michael Yon, then goes on to say we (America) should "adopt' Afghanistan, essentially committing ourselves to raising the country for 20 years. That's one hell of a commitment. Will America and the world really be safer by a long-term commitment in Afghanistan? Can we afford it fiscally? Will we make things better or worse there with our large and extended presence? Yon did not answer these questions satisfactorily.

Monday, October 19, 2009

 

No Depression

While on an exercise bike yesterday morning a number of economists on Fareed Zakaria's show kept talking about how we averted a depression by the skin of our teeth. You read about and see folks talking about how we avoided a second great depression a lot lately. Some will argue it's thanks to the actions of the fed or the stimulus or because of the powers of the market or some other reason. I wonder how they know we've actually averted a depression. Sure the stock market reached 10,000 the other day and the loss of jobs is slowing but in 1930 things looked like they were getting better too. That didn't turn out too well. I am not predicting the stock market is going to crash some more or the job situation is going to get a lot worse but it sure seems early to say the coast is clear.
Even if we aren't facing a Great Depression 2, there's also the possibility of a lost decade ala Japan. The best evidence that we aren't facing another depression is not U.S. economic numbers but the strength of economies overseas. On the other hand, Japan's economy went nowhere while the rest of the world grew at a good rate. In other words, let's wait a bit before we decide what exactly our current economic state is.

 

Balloon Boy

Most interesting take of balloon boy story was probably this.

Anyone familiar with the physics of lighter-than-air lift would probably
have suspected that 6-year-old Falcon Heene was not inside the balloon-lofted
contraption that riveted the TV-watching population for several hours on
Thursday. It's better to be safe than sorry, though - even if the false alarm is
followed by a nationwide round of second-guessing.

Lift is related to the weight of a gas in a given volume: If the weight of a balloon and its contents is less than the weight of the volume of air displaced by the balloon, then the balloon will rise until it reaches an equilibrium level. And if the
difference is great enough, you can hang some extra weight from the balloon and
still let it fly.


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